Leading Through Uncertainty

By Prof. Enrique N. Soriano

In my previous article, I wrote about a Japanese philosophy that has guided my thinking: “Kiki no toki ni kaeru no dewa nai. Tsuyoi toki ni kaeru.” — “Do not change when you are in crisis. Change when you are strong.” But what happens when the world itself becomes uncertain? What should leaders do when geopolitical tensions rise, conflicts rage, and yesterday’s assumptions can no longer be taken for granted?

I was in Taipei last week facilitating planning for a multi-generational family enterprise. Next week, I will be flying to Vietnam, Singapore and Jakarta for work, followed by Europe next month. Meanwhile, the crisis in the Middle East continues to rage. Some colleagues have rebooked their flights with what they consider a “safer airline.” I understand the concern. But for me, the show must go on. Not because risk should be ignored, but because leadership cannot mean stopping whenever uncertainty appears. The test is whether we can assess risk, prepare and move.

That is the reality facing business leaders. Uncertainty is no longer an interruption; it has become part of the business environment. Wars affect supply chains. Political tensions influence investment. Tariffs can change the economics of entire industries. Artificial intelligence is rewriting competitive boundaries. Across Asia, the China-Taiwan relationship remains a major concern, with 2027 frequently discussed as a flashpoint.

But leaders should not become prisoners of predictions. We do not know what will happen, when, or whether these scenarios will materialize. The better question is not, “Will there be a crisis?” It is, “What happens to our organization if there is one?”

Leaders should not build strategy around predictions. They should build resilience around possibilities.

This requires a different mindset. Strong leaders do not wait for certainty before acting. They prepare for uncertainty while maintaining the courage to move. Resilience is not avoiding risk; it is ensuring that one event does not overwhelm the organization.

Financial strength becomes strategic strength. Cash, liquidity and manageable leverage give companies something valuable during turbulent periods: choices. But money is not enough. Organizations also need optionality. What if a major supplier becomes unavailable, a key market inaccessible, or technology eliminates important revenue? Resilient organizations do not have every answer. They have alternatives.

This is where the board becomes especially important. Boards cannot simply review results and approve management proposals. They must challenge assumptions, ask “what if” questions and stress-test strategies before the market does it for them. A strong board is an additional layer of strategic intelligence.

The same principle applies to family enterprises. External uncertainty becomes far more dangerous when combined with internal division. Families can disagree about strategy, leadership and ownership, but they cannot allow personal conflicts to weaken the enterprise when the outside world is already unpredictable. They must debate vigorously without becoming divided, and distinguish personal interests from the enterprise’s long-term interests.

Most importantly, leaders must communicate. Employees do not expect leaders to know exactly what tomorrow will bring. They expect clarity about what matters, what risks are being watched and what happens if circumstances change. In uncertainty, clarity creates confidence.

This brings us back to the philosophy: change when you are strong. Do not wait for a crisis to force diversification. Do not wait for declining profits before strengthening governance. Do not wait for a leadership vacuum before preparing the next generation. Do not wait for a geopolitical disruption before discovering that your supply chain is too concentrated.

Prepare while you still have choices.

The next crisis may come from geopolitics, technology, economics or something we cannot yet imagine. We cannot predict every disruption. But we can decide whether our organizations are fragile or resilient when it arrives.

The world may become more uncertain. Our leadership must not. The leaders who thrive will not necessarily predict the next crisis. They will be prepared for it anyway.

Prof. Enrique M. Soriano is Executive Director of W+B Advisory Group. Having spent half of his four-decade career as a C-suite executive and the other half as a strategic and governance adviser, he is a volunteer Mentor of the Singapore Institute of Directors’ (SID) Board Readiness Programme, a former World Bank/IFC Governance Consultant, and advises boards, founders and multi-generational family enterprises across Asia on governance, strategy, succession and long-term stewardship.