If the 2022 Surveys Were Perfect, Jojo Binay Would Be Senator

By the Institute of Contemporary Economics

Surveys and the 2022 Elections for Senate

Our report title aside, reputable election survey firms have had a relatively good track record in predicting the winners of national elections since the first serious polling was undertaken ahead of the 1992 elections. The one notable miss may have been the victory of Jojo Binay in the 2010 Vice Presidential race over Mar Roxas. Having noted this, Mr. Binay was having a remarkable surge where, by election day the race was pretty much too close to call.

Senator Jojo Binay

The 2022 elections for the Senate were understandably overshadowed by the races for the President and the Vice President. Nevertheless, our analysis of a sampling of final surveys for the 12 Senate seats being contested show that an average of these surveys were able to correctly predict 11 of the 12 candidates elected. The one who missed out was, by coincidence, former Mayor Binay who happened to be on the other side of the winning ledger this time, being edged out by Jinggoy Estrada in the final results.

In many of the surveys that we have reviewed dating back to the 1992 national elections, it is a glaring observation that the preference percentages in preelection surveys have remained significantly off relative to the final vote tallies. The over-all magnitude of the differences are so that these voter preference percentages can be seen as largely irrelevant in determining the final vote shares of candidates.

In the table below, the average of the voter preference, 30.9%, for Mayor Binay in the surveys we reviewed would have been more than enough to land him a Senate seat. The average of the surveys over-projected the eventual vote share of Binay by 7% with a range of between 0.5% to 9.6%. Had these pre-election survey indicators carried over to the elections, Binay would have placed ahead of now Senators Joel Villanueva, JV Ejercito and Jinggoy Estrada.

Phenomenon

One of the most notable misses in the 2022 elections was the head scratching finish of Robin Padilla as the top vote getter in the Senatorial elections. Padilla was one of only two candidates whose final vote tallies were under-projected by the preelection surveys. The other was Senator Joel Villanueva.

In Padilla’s case, the average underprojection was a significant 8.6%. The under-projection ranged from 3.9% to 13.9% in the surveys we reviewed.

The Raffy Tulfo mirage

As for the 10 other elected Senators, all of their final election vote shares were overstated by varying degrees. This ranged from the 1.7% over-projection for Senator JV Ejercito to the massive 11.7% overprojection for Senator Raffy Tulfo. Senator Tulfo, who had been leading pre-election surveys for an extended period eventually finished with the third-highest number of votes in the 2022 race for the Senate behind Padilla and Senator Loren Legarda.

The 2025 mid-term elections

With 27 more days to go before the 2025 mid-term elections, a milestone has emerged between the two largest public opinion survey firms in the country. For the first time in this election cycle, the preelection Senatorial preference surveys of the two firms show the same top 12 candidates.

Does this presage a “meeting of the minds” among Filipino voters?  Does this preordain the results of the elections? Maybe or maybe not.

As we saw in the 2022 elections, preelection surveys taken even just a month before the election have not been infallible. The race for the last four seats appear to be a dogfight with at least 6 candidates appearing to be in contention. This includes Congresswoman Camille Villar, former Senator Manny Pacquiao and now, “newbie” Phillip Salvador.

The rise of Ipe and the fall (?) of Villar

The latest Pulse Asia survey shows a surprising rise by actor Phillip Salvador. His voter preference result jumped to 30.9% from 20.7% in the February survey. A month on month jump such as this is quite unusual.

Some analysts surmise that this rise in voter preference has been influenced by Mr. Salvador’s visibility during the arrest of the former President by Interpol for his trial by the International Criminal Court. This “Duterte effect” appears to have also benefited the re-election campaigns of Senators Bong Go and Bato dela Rosa.

Meanwhile, the campaign of Congresswoman Villar appears to have stalled. A 5.7% drop in voter preference in the Pulse Asia survey follows a slightly a smaller 2.0% drop in the last SWS survey. Despite the documented billions in ad spending spent by the campaign of the Congresswoman, she has only appeared once (Pulse Asia, February 2025) among the Top 12 candidates in the pre-election surveys.

Takeaways

Election preference surveys are not infallible. There remain just under a month before the elections which is a long time for the chances of candidates especially those vying for the last 4 seats being contested.

Philippine election surveys have had a relatively good track record in serving as an indicator of electoral winners. This is true from the Presidential race to the Senatorial Races.

Our appreciation of the predictive ability of pre-election surveys depends on their technical ability and historical record. Together these combine to give surveys their credibility. Anybody can do a survey. It can be created out of this air for “mischievous” ends. It is always good practice to take survey results with a “grain of salt” and not take these at face value.

The influence of surveys on voter behavior remains contentious. In the grand scheme of things, an individual’s right to vote is that individual’s right to practice or not.

Our perception of survey results can be clouded by the relative positions of candidates in various surveys conducted over time. Voter preferences go up and go down for individual candidates in practically every survey.

As an exercise, we listed candidates in the Top 12 in alphabetical order from surveys going back to November to the latest ones. This alphabetical listing of candidates would yield the table that follows.

There have only been two instances (in Pulse Asia surveys in January and February) where some other candidates appeared (briefly) in the Top 12. Outside of those two, the names have all been the same. Are these names going to be those of our incoming Senators?

The Institute of Contemporary Economics is a multi-disciplinary think tank which aims to be a credible thought leader in the policy-making space. It seeks to promote a vibrant and sustainable economic environment particularly in Western Visayas. This underlies a belief that a strong and healthy economy is a pre-requisite to uplifting the lives of our people. As a think tank, the Institute will be an organization that will use specialized knowledge to report on and perform research on a wide variety of subjects. It advocates for necessary interventions by using our research to influence public opinion and policymakers. Analytical reports produced by the Institute will play an influential role in helping decision-makers craft major policy agendas.