Humiliation or escalation

By Artchil B. Fernandez

Trump’s excursion into Iran has boxed in his administration, trapping it in a nightmare. Extricating his administration from the messy situation he created forces Trump to confront a way out of the quagmire — humiliation or escalation.

Tempting as it may be for Trump to simply declare victory and leave, this is not an option for him. In fact, he has boasted on many occasions about the “great triumph” of the United States (US) in the Iran war, yet the war grinds on. Trump cannot stop the war even if he wants to. Iran has a say in whether Trump can leave the war theater or not.

Unless Iran agrees to stop the war, Trump is in a bind. This explains Trump’s huffing and puffing via social media. On a daily basis, Trump posts threats against Iran on his social media account if it does not agree to stop the war. This underscores the reality that Iran must be on board for the war to end. Trump cannot just end the war unilaterally. Without Iran’s participation, Trump is compelled to continue the war, whether he likes it or not. His frustration and desperation grow by the day.

Given the deadlock in the situation, Trump faces bitter choices, none of which is palatable to him. Either he accepts humiliation or further escalates the conflict.

Humiliation means ending the conflict on Iran’s terms. In the early days of the war, Iran plainly made clear its conditions for ending the conflict. These are guarantees that the US will not attack the Islamic Republic in the future, an end to the sanctions, war reparations, and recognition of Iran’s jurisdiction over the Strait of Hormuz. Trump accepting them implies the US is defeated in the war.

Complicating things for Trump are the shifting, unclear and hazy objectives of his current war with Iran — regime change, degrading Iran’s missile and military capability, or merely joining Israel in attacking Iran. With no specific goal for going to war, it is difficult for the US to define what “victory” is, aggravating its humiliation should Iran get its way in ending the conflict. Trump also has no exit strategy to end the war.

If humiliation, aka defeat, is too bitter for Trump to swallow, the other option is escalation. Escalation can range from intensifying the bombardment of Iran’s infrastructure to the deployment of boots on the ground and invading Iran. The cost is excessive for the US if it chooses to escalate the conflict.

Despite the daily bombing by the US and Israel of Iran, the Islamic Republic continues to fire missiles and drones at Israel and the Gulf states. Intercepting the waves of missiles and drones is prohibitively expensive for the US and Israel. A missile interceptor like the Patriot costs USD 4.2 million per unit. An Iranian drone costs USD 20,000 to USD 50,000, while a missile like the Fatah-2 has a price tag of USD 200,000 to USD 400,000. Escalation will be a huge financial strain on the US. Given its staggering debt of USD 39 trillion, the war carries a huge economic cost.

Worse, the US and Israel are also running out of interceptor missiles, with stockpiles reaching critically low levels. A prolonged war or an escalation of the conflict carries a huge risk for Israel and the Gulf states. Once the missile interceptors are depleted, Iran’s missiles and drones will be unstoppable, bringing massive destruction.

Sending troops to Iran once the escalation intensifies is a terrible gamble for Trump. Hundreds of thousands of troops are needed to invade Iran. Using past US ground troop involvements as a basis, boots on the ground are a disaster for the US, as shown by Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. The US left these countries defeated, with thousands of Americans returning home in body bags. Iran’s rough terrain will be a killing field for US troops. Are Americans willing to die for a war whose objectives are unclear?

The real danger is that if escalation fails to bring Iran to its knees, the US and Israel might resort to an ultimate desperate measure — dropping a nuclear bomb on Iran. Should this happen, all bets are off. World War III is a possible scenario, with the world ending in a nuclear conflagration. Will Trump destroy the world to appease his petty ego?

Humiliation may be hard for Trump to swallow, but the final outcome of an escalation may be too much for him to contemplate. Which bullet will Trump bite?

The choices facing Trump are causing him so much anguish. To force Iran to capitulate, Trump gave it a series of ultimatums whose deadlines he continues to move as the Islamic Republic remains defiant. His latest ultimatum this week vowed the death of a “whole civilization” should Iran refuse to comply with his demands. Trump is on the ropes.

Trump’s latest ultimatum ended with him clutching at humiliation instead of escalation. He announced a two-week ceasefire, with Iran’s 10-point proposal as a “workable basis on which to negotiate.” Trump trumpeted his acceptance of Iran’s 10-point proposal as a framework for talks as “total and complete victory.” They achieved their aim of opening the Strait of Hormuz, Trump and his officials bragged. Is that the goal?

The Strait of Hormuz was open before the war with Iran closed it. Trump went to war with Iran to open an already open body of water that was then closed by his war? Crazy.

Behind the bluster, Trump’s ceasefire is de-escalation — a humiliating one. He cloaked his humiliation in victory, but no amount of boasting can conceal the truth. The world knows Trump chose humiliation instead of embracing escalation. Escalation, in reality, only prolongs the agony of war and delays US defeat. A less costly defeat is better than an exorbitant one. Defeat, whether now or in the future, is humiliating. Even if only half of Iran’s 10-point proposal is realized, it is still a loss for Trump.

But it is too early to assume the war between Iran and the US-Israel alliance is over. Given Trump’s erratic behavior, he can shred any agreement or cancel the negotiation and resume the war. He may opt for escalation in the end. Things remain fluid, with the next two weeks critical. It is not yet time for celebration, and this could be a prelude to the worst.