Folly of illusory security

By Artchil B. Fernandez

Iran aside, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states suffered the most in the current war in the Middle East. The United States (US) and Israel suddenly attacked Iran amid negotiations between the US and the Islamic Republic without informing the GCC states. Caught by surprise, the GCC states are bearing the full brunt of the war.

GCC was established in 1981 as a regional bloc composed of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The grouping facilitated economic, political and military cooperation among its member states. Its headquarters is located in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

In the early hours of the war, Iran retaliated against the joint US-Israeli strikes by hitting the GCC with suicide drones and missiles. US operations against the Islamic Republic were carried out through military bases located in the GCC states. Given the pivotal role of US military bases in the GCC in America’s war against Iran, neutralizing and crippling them is a top priority of the Islamic Republic.

Kuwait hosted several US military installations, including Camp Arifjan, the forward headquarters of US Army Central, and the Ali Al Salem Air Base. The Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar serves as the forward headquarters for US Central Command (CENTCOM) and houses 10,000 US troops. The headquarters of the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet is in Manama, Bahrain. The US Air Force hub, Al Dhafra Air Base, is hosted by the UAE, while Saudi Arabia houses the US 378th Air Expeditionary Wing at Prince Sultan Air Base. The US projects its military power in the Middle East through these bases.

These US military bases were sold to the GCC as security and protection. The US made GCC states believe hosting its military installations provides an ironclad shield from enemies. Who would dare attack the GCC states with the US military protecting them? The US military, after all, is the strongest armed force on the planet, with an unmatched budget between USD 895 billion and USD 1.04 trillion for fiscal year 2024–2025.

Given the seeming invincibility of US security architecture, the GCC states are still in a state of shock to see their cities burning and their economies in shambles. How could this happen? Didn’t US military presence secure for them peace and stability?

GCC states are beginning to realize the folly of the illusory security provided by US military presence in their midst. When war broke out between Iran and the US-Israel alliance, US military installations in the GCC became natural targets of retaliation. These military bases are used by the US to carry out bombing missions in Iran. The Islamic Republic has to take them out to minimize, if not prevent, US military operations against it.

Now, the GCC states are drawn into a war not of their making. They do not even have the slightest idea why the US and Israel started the war. Both the US and Israel neither consulted nor involved them in the planning and execution of the war. Yet, they are suffering more from the war than the US or Israel. They are the sacrificial lambs.

Worse, it is dawning on the GCC states that US military installations in their areas not only failed to protect them but also served as magnets for attacks from US enemies that are not necessarily theirs. The war also revealed that they are not the priority of the US. As their stock of missile interceptors is being depleted, the US is giving preference to Israel despite pleas from GCC states to augment their stock. They are disposable tools of the US and Israel in advancing their own agenda. In the US-Israel calculus, they are expendable pawns.

The price the GCC states are paying for being dragged into the US-Israel incursion into Iran is incalculable. More than the damage to infrastructure, the economic toll of the war on the GCC states is devastating. For years, the GCC carefully built an image as a safe haven for investment and finance. Now, that image is shattered, perhaps irreparably, by the war. Investments are fleeing the region and investors are rethinking the GCC’s viability as a financial hub. Volatility replaced the image of stability.

Closure by Iran of the Strait of Hormuz is catastrophic to the economy of the GCC states. Their wealth is mostly generated from the export of oil and natural gas. The war stopped the flow of oil and gas, incurring hundreds of billions in losses to the GCC. Their storage is full, forcing them to halt oil and natural gas production. Worse, the oil and gas infrastructure of the GCC states is being seriously damaged by the missile and bombing tit-for-tat between the US-Israel alliance and Iran. They are forced to declare force majeure.

The tourism and aviation sectors of GCC states are heavily bleeding from the war. GCC states packaged themselves as major tourism destinations, whose lucrativeness is now in grave danger. GCC airports that handle hundreds of millions of travelers face closure and flight cancellations. The pillars of the GCC economy are being razed.

Prolonged war between Iran and the US-Israel alliance will wreck the GCC, possibly for good. They are the real losers in the latest US-Israel adventure in Iran. This is the consequence of the folly of illusory security. Security becomes the source of insecurity.

The current fate of the GCC states is a grim reminder and perilous warning to the Philippines. Through the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), the country is hosting US personnel and installations in several military sites. These EDCA sites are advertised as vital to the security of the country. Is the Philippines being lured into the folly of illusory security? What happened and is happening to the GCC states should be instructive of the fate that awaits the country should war break out between the US and its adversaries in the Asia-Pacific region. The Philippines is a sitting duck.

In light of the ongoing war in the Middle East and the awkward and precarious predicament of the GCC states, the Philippines must review EDCA and other security arrangements with the US. The Philippines cannot afford to be in the shoes of the GCC.

Brief explanation: I retained the original paragraph structure and made only necessary edits for grammar, syntax, tense, spelling and punctuation. I also converted the currency figures to ISO style and applied spacing and usage consistent with em dashes and related punctuation.