Consumer outlook more pessimistic in Q4 2022, less optimistic for Q1 2023 and next 12 months

The consumer sentiment in the country was more pessimistic in Q4 2022 as the overall confidence index (CI) decreased to -14.6 percent from -12.9 percent in Q3 2022.

The decline in the index in Q4 2022 indicates that the number of households with pessimistic views increased and continued to outnumber those with optimistic views.

Consumer confidence across component indicators is mixed in Q4 2022

The sentiment across the three component indicators of consumer confidence was mixed in Q4 2022, i.e., more pessimistic for the country’s economic condition, less pessimistic for the family’s financial situation, and steady for family income.

Consumer outlook is also mixed across income groups

Similarly, consumer sentiment was also mixed across income groups, i.e., less pessimistic among the low-income group, steady among the middle-income group, and more pessimistic among the high-income group.

Buying sentiment on big-ticket items is more pessimistic

The consumer sentiment on buying big-ticket items was more pessimistic in Q4 2022 as the CI declined to -74.5 percent from -72 percent in Q3 2022.

Percentage of households with loans decreases slightly, while those with savings increases

In Q4 2022, 24 percent of households availed of a loan in the last 12 months, slightly lower than the 24.9 percent recorded in Q3 2022. However, the percentage of households with savings in the country rose to 30.5 percent from 27.5 percent in Q3 2022 with all income groups registering an increasing trend.

Consumers expect lower unemployment rate, higher interest and inflation rates and a weaker peso in Q4 2022

Consumers anticipated that interest and inflation rates may increase, the peso may depreciate against the U.S. dollar, and the unemployment rate may decline in Q4 2022, Q1 2023, and the next 12 months. In particular, consumers expected the inflation rate may rise to 5.9 percent for the next 12 months, breaching the upper end of the National Government’s inflation target range of 2 to 4 percent for 2022 and 2023.

View Full Report: https://www.bsp.gov.ph/Lists/Consumer%20Expectation%20Report/Attachments/21/CES_4qtr2022.pdf

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^[1] The Q4 2022 CES was conducted during the period 1 to 13 October 2022. In Q4 2022 CES, 5,499 households were surveyed — 2,827 (51.4 percent) were from the NCR and 2,672 (48.6 percent) from the AONCR. Of these households, 5,407 participated in the survey, equivalent to a response rate of 97.5 percent (from 97.2 percent in the Q2 2022 survey). Respondents consisted of 2,738 households in the NCR (with 97.6 percent response rate) and 2,669 households in AONCR (with 97.4 percent response rate). The middle-income group comprised the largest percentage of respondents (44.1 percent), followed by the high-income group (29.2 percent) and the low-income group (26.7 percent).