DOE drafts Panay energy master plan amid 2029 supply risk

By Rjay Zuriaga Castor

ILOILO CITY – The Department of Energy (DOE) is drafting a Panay Energy Master Plan to strengthen the island’s long-term power security, citing high and growing electricity demand and Panay’s position as the “end-of-the-line” sub-grid in the Visayas transmission system.

Camille Roxas, supervising science research specialist at the DOE’s Electric Power Industry Management Bureau, said the master plan will provide a comprehensive roadmap for Panay’s power sector, covering generation, transmission, distribution, energy efficiency, and electrification initiatives.

“We need to develop a Panay Energy Master Plan because Panay is located at the end of the Visayas transmission network and there is still no transmission connection between Mindoro and Luzon. It is the endpoint of all the sub-grids in the Visayas island group,” Roxas said during the Visayas Power Forum in Iloilo City on Wednesday, Aug. 5.

She said Panay’s location makes the island highly vulnerable to transmission constraints and limits its ability to receive capacity transfers from other grids.

“The master plan will establish a comprehensive development roadmap, not only for transmission but also for generation and distribution, to strengthen the reliability and resilience of the Panay sub-grid and ensure the region’s long-term energy security,” she said.

Roxas said the plan also seeks to ensure adequate generation capacity in Panay while improving inter-island power transfer capability so the island can support other sub-grids during contingencies and natural disasters.

“If Panay becomes disconnected from the rest of the grid, it should be able to stand alone,” she said.

She said the DOE’s initial assessment indicates that Panay could face a shortage of baseload capacity by 2029.

“The focus is to determine exactly what the Panay grid will need because our initial study shows that by 2029, Panay may experience a shortage in baseload capacity,” Roxas said.

Roxas said work on the master plan began less than two weeks ago and has yet to undergo public consultation.

She said discussions are currently being conducted within the DOE, and no target date has been set for the plan’s completion or rollout.

The Panay Energy Master Plan is expected to guide future investments and policy decisions aimed at improving the island’s energy resilience and supporting its growing electricity requirements.

[Editor-inserted background — confirm before publication] Panay’s exposure to grid disturbances was demonstrated on Jan. 2, 2024, when an island-wide blackout left Iloilo, Capiz, Aklan, Antique, and Guimaras without power for several days after a series of generating unit failures, prompting a DOE investigation and congressional inquiries.

[Editor-inserted background — confirm before publication] The forum host, MORE Electric and Power Corp., is the distribution utility serving Iloilo City, which accounts for the largest concentration of electricity demand on the island.

DOE data showed that the Visayas has a total installed power generation capacity of 4,065 megawatts (MW) and a dependable capacity of 3,495 MW, exceeding the peak demand of 2,779 MW recorded so far this year.

Renewable energy accounts for the largest share of the region’s installed capacity at 2,158 MW, or 53.1%, followed by coal at 1,346 MW, or 33.1%; oil-based plants at 560 MW, or 13.8%; and natural gas at 1 MW.

Despite leading in installed capacity, renewable energy is not yet the largest source of electricity generation in the Visayas.

Coal-fired power plants generated 8,058 gigawatt-hours (GWh), or 50.4% of the region’s electricity output, while renewable energy sources produced 7,565 GWh, or 47.3%.

Oil-based plants generated 371 GWh, or 2.3% of total electricity production, while natural gas output was negligible.

Roxas said sufficient installed and dependable capacity does not necessarily mean all generating capacity is available to the grid at any given time because of scheduled maintenance and unplanned outages.

“The challenge is that installed and dependable capacity is not necessarily the capacity that can be delivered to the grid. There are planned and unplanned outages. Some power plants undergo scheduled maintenance, while others experience forced outages,” she said.

The Visayas Power Forum, hosted by MORE Electric and Power Corp., brought together energy stakeholders to discuss grid reliability, power supply adequacy, and the region’s electricity price outlook as demand continues to grow.