A war we do not fight, yet still pay for: The Philippine impact of the Middle Eastern conflict

By Charles Laurence Reynaldo

The far-reaching consequences of escalating tensions involving the United States, Israel and Iran extend well beyond their immediate borders. In the Philippines — a nation heavily dependent on imported oil — these geopolitical conflicts translate into tangible economic and social burdens.

As global oil markets react to instability in the Middle East, domestic fuel prices in the Philippines continue to rise sharply. This surge places immense pressure on key sectors, including transportation, logistics, agriculture and trade. The result is a cascading effect: higher operating costs for industries and a significant increase in the cost of living for ordinary Filipinos. Workers, commuters and small business owners are among the most affected, experiencing the immediate and severe consequences of a conflict taking place thousands of kilometers away.

Beyond economic strain, the crisis also threatens the welfare of more than 2 million overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) stationed across the Middle East. These individuals, who contribute substantially to the Philippine economy through remittances, now face heightened risks to their safety and job security. While thousands have already been repatriated through government efforts, their return introduces a new challenge — uncertainty in employment, financial stability and reintegration into the local economy.

However, the situation also raises critical questions about domestic economic dynamics. While rising oil prices understandably influence transportation and production costs, the widespread increase in prices of various goods invites closer scrutiny. Not all commodities are directly dependent on oil to the same extent, yet price hikes appear across multiple sectors.

This leads to an important question: Are these increases solely driven by global conflict, or are they, in part, amplified by opportunistic pricing practices?

A parallel can be drawn from the COVID-19 pandemic, during which transportation fares significantly increased because of capacity restrictions. For instance, tricycle fares rose from approximately PHP 7–PHP 10 to PHP 15–PHP 20 per ride. While these adjustments were initially justified, many of these elevated prices persisted even after restrictions were lifted. This pattern raises concerns about whether temporary crises are being used to justify long-term price increases.

In this context, the Philippine experience reflects a deeper issue: the intersection of global vulnerability and local economic practices. While external conflicts undeniably shape market conditions, internal systems of regulation, accountability and consumer protection also play a crucial role in determining how these impacts are felt.

Ultimately, the Philippines may not be a participant in these wars, but it remains deeply entangled in their consequences. The challenge, therefore, is not only to respond to external shocks but also to ensure that such crises are not disproportionately — and unnecessarily — borne by the Filipino people.

Charles Laurence V. Reynaldo is a Bachelor of Science in Biology student majoring in Microbiology who writes about socioeconomic and public issues.