Will errors belie Harris’ ‘wide’ lead vs Trump in latest poll?

By Alex P. Vidal 

“Leaders are responsible not for running public opinion polls but for the consequences of their actions.” — Henry Kissinger

WHEN errors in the 2016 and 2026 U.S. general elections occurred, confidence in public opinion polling was reportedly shaken.

These errors laid bare some real limitations of polling, according to Pew Research Center’s Scott Keeter and Courtney Kennedy, who claimed many polls underestimated the strength of Republican candidates, including Donald Trump.

In the midterms that followed those elections, polling reportedly performed better even as many Americans remained skeptical that it can paint an accurate portrait of the public’s political preferences.

Restoring people’s confidence in polling is an important goal, because robust and independent public polling has a critical role to play in a democratic society, stressed Keeter and Kennedy.

They emphasized that it gathers and publishes information about the well-being of the public and about citizens’ views on major issues. And it provides an important counterweight to people in power, or those seeking power, when they make claims about “what the people want.”

The challenges facing polling are undeniable, asserted the Pew Research Center writers. In addition to the longstanding issues of rising nonresponse and cost, summer 2024 reportedly brought extraordinary events that transformed the presidential race.

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“The good news is that people with deep knowledge of polling are working hard to fix the problems exposed in 2016 and 2020, experimenting with more data sources and interview approaches than ever before. Still, polls are more useful to the public if people have realistic expectations about what surveys can do well–and what they cannot,” they wrote.

Pollsters are reportedly making changes in response to the problems in previous elections. As a result, polling is different today than in 2016. Most U.S. polling organizations that conducted and publicly released national surveys in both 2016 and 2022 (61 percent) used methods in 2022 that differed from what they used in 2016. And change has continued since 2022.

Keeter and Kennedy observed that one change is that the number of active polling organizations has grown significantly, indicating that there are fewer barriers to entry into the polling field. The number of organizations that conduct national election polls more than doubled between 2000 and 2022.

“This growth has been driven largely by pollsters using inexpensive opt-in sampling methods. But previous Pew Research Center analyses have demonstrated how surveys that use nonprobability sampling may have errors twice as large, on average, as those that use probability sampling,” they added.

The second change is that many of the more prominent polling organizations that use probability sampling–including Pew Research Center-have reportedly shifted from conducting polls primarily by telephone to using online methods, or some combination of online, mail and telephone. The result is that polling methodologies are far more diverse now than in the past.

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CHESS prodigy Nika Juris Nicolas became the youngest awardee of the Natatanging Pasigueño in the Field of Sports & Sports Development, an award given in celebration of the National Heroes Day on August 26 in Pasig City, which awarded its modern-day heroes in its Gawad Parangal sa Mga Natatanging Pasigueño in Pamantasan ng Lungsod ng Pasig.

Nicolas, 12, was born, raised and educated in Pasig City. The incoming Grade 7 student at Victory Christian International School, is the Philippines’ first and only National Chess Master who is female, a title given only to those who emerge triumphant in the Open Division of chess tournaments as opposed to the Women Division.

In a span of two years, this chess beginner blossomed to a National Youth Champion, Asian Youth Medalist, Woman National Master, Eastern Asia Silver Medalist, Batang Pinoy Champion, National Master and Woman Candidate Master (FIDE)-elect.

Nicolas thanked her family, nominators Franco Camillo of Pasig Grassroots and Raymond Samson of the Valle Verde 6 Homeowners’ Association, Coaches Raul Damuy, Lourecel Ecot, Woman Grandmaster Janelle Mae Frayna and Grandmaster Jayson Gonzales and the National Chess Federation of the Philippines. She made special mention of Pasig City Mayor Vico Sotto and Pasig Congressman Roman Romulo who supported her journey from the time she started competing in tournaments up to present time.

She offered her Double Gold Medals secured from the Chinese Taipei Chess Association International Open Tournament held in Taoyuan, Taiwan last July 22–27, 2024 where she made history as the first Filipina to achieve such feat.

Pasig Councilor and Chairperson of the Committee on Culture and Tourism Angelu De Leon noted that the Gawad Parangal sa Mga Natatanging Pasigueño is a longstanding tradition of Pasig in recognizing the lives and achievements of outstanding Pasigueños which was first celebrated on the 421st Araw ng Pasig in 1994.

She added that since its inception, this award has evolved through decades as a source of great pride and inspiration for Pasigueños everywhere.

The 2024 Selection Committee for the Award consisted of luminaries in their respective fields namely Aljon Patrick Acupan, Jared Carlo L. Echevarria, Randy Carlos Guevarra, Dr. Wensley M. Reyes, Noel T. Rivera, Maria Victoria L. Santiago and Dr. Jesus Rodrigo F. Torres.

The other recipients of the Natatanging Pasigueño Award 2024 were Dr. Nestor T. Castro (Education and the Academe), William I. Sidayon, Jr. (Civic Involvement and Volunteerism), Francis Gabriel O. Santos  (Youth Leadership), Cipriano M. De Guzman, Jr. (Culture and the Arts–Music), Stephen T. Viñas (Culture and the Arts–Theatre), Christopher Simoun C. Andres (Culture and the ArtsFashion Design) and Victor Francesco C. Cham (Culture and the Arts–Painting).

(The author, who is now based in New York City, used to be the editor of two daily newspapers in Iloilo.—Ed)