Visayas power supply vulnerable despite stable solar outlook

TAGUIG CITY — Department of Energy simulations show no significant decline in solar generation under the El Niño conditions being assessed, but electricity supply in the Visayas remains a concern because of its reliance on imports from Luzon and Mindanao.

For households, businesses, and essential services in the Visayas, the risk extends beyond the output of local power plants. Supply constraints in either source grid could limit imported electricity, making local generation, reserves, and backup power important to preparations for possible outages.

Energy Undersecretary Mario Marasigan discussed the outlook with reporters Oct. 20 on the sidelines of the Philippine International Nuclear Energy Forum and World Nuclear Supply Chain Conference at Grand Hyatt Manila in Bonifacio Global City.

Marasigan said the DOE continued to assess a scenario involving a 60% reduction in hydropower generation. The figure is a planning assumption, rather than a reported loss of generating output.

The department initially considered whether solar generation could also decline under the anticipated conditions described as “Super El Niño.” Its simulations so far indicated no significant effect, he said.

“So far yung mga simulations na ginawa, wala siya laking effect,” Marasigan said.

He identified the Visayas’ dependence on electricity imports from Luzon and Mindanao as a continuing concern, particularly if El Niño also constrains supply in those grids.

“So, if El Niño affects all areas, o mag-concentrate siya sa Luzon, then magkakaroon tayo ng problema sa Visayas,” Marasigan said.

The DOE is focusing on measures that would allow the Visayas to meet more of its own electricity requirements, he added.

Beyond hydropower, Marasigan flagged possible fuel shortages for biomass plants, including facilities in the Visayas. Lower agricultural production could reduce the crop residues available for power generation.

He urged power plants to complete maintenance before the strongest El Niño impacts so more generating capacity would be available during that period.

The DOE is also assessing backup power arrangements at hospitals and medical facilities and inventorying diesel generator sets that could be used during outages.

Marasigan said the department hopes more than 250 megawatts of batteries intended for ancillary services will be operating by December.

Ancillary services provide reserves and other support needed to maintain grid stability. The battery capacity remains an expected addition, rather than capacity confirmed to be operating.

Following the reserve-market suspension, Marasigan also called on the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines to accelerate contracting for reserve requirements across the grids.