U.S. presidential election matchup

By Alex P. Vidal 

“The United States brags about its political system, but the President says one thing during the election, something else when he takes office, something else at midterm and something else when he leaves.” —Deng Xiaoping

FOLLOWING the most recent polling conducted by the Pew Research Center, let’s pave the way for the latest in the matchup among Vice President Kamala Harris, former President Donald Trump, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Harris and Trump are essentially tied among registered voters in the current snapshot of the presidential race nationally: 46 percent prefer Harris, 45 percent prefer Trump and 7 percent prefer Kennedy Jr.

According to Pew Research Center, following President Joe Biden’s exit from the race, Trump’s support among voters has remained largely steady (44 percent backed him in July against President Biden, while 45 percent back him against Harris today).

However, Harris’ support is 6 percentage points higher than President Biden’s was in July. In addition to holding on to the support of those who backed President Biden in July, Harris’ bump has largely come from those who had previously said they supported or leaned toward Kennedy, explained the Pew Research Center.

Harris performs best among the same demographic groups as President Biden. But this coalition of voters is now much more likely to say they strongly support her: In July, 43 percent of President Biden’s supporters characterized their support as strong – today, 62 percent of Harris’ do.

Overall, many of the same voting patterns that were evident in the Biden-Trump matchup from July continue to be seen today. Harris fares better than Trump among younger voters, Black voters, Asian voters and voters with college degrees.

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By comparison, the former president does better among older voters, White voters and voters without a college degree.

But Harris performs better than President Biden across many of these groups – making the race tighter than it was just a few weeks ago.

In July, women’s presidential preferences were split: 40 percent backed President Biden, 40 percent preferred Trump and 17 percent favored Kennedy. With Harris at the top of the ticket, 49 percent of women voters now support her, while 42 percent favor Trump and 7 percent back Kennedy.

Among men, Trump draws a similar level of support as he did in the race against Biden (49 percent today, compared with 48 percent in July). But the share of men who now say they support Harris has grown (to 44 percent today, up from 38 percent last month). As a result, Trump’s 10-point lead among men has narrowed to a 5-point lead today.

Harris has gained substantial ground over President Biden’s position in July among Black, Hispanic and Asian voters. Most of this movement is attributable to declining shares of support for Kennedy. Trump performs similarly among these groups as he did in July.

77 percent of Black voters support or lean toward Harris. This compares with 64 percent of Black voters who said they backed Biden a few weeks ago. Trump’s support is unchanged (13 percent then vs. 13 percent today). And while 21 percent of Black voters supported Kennedy in July, this has dropped to 7 percent in the latest survey.

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Hispanic voters now favor Harris over Trump by a 17-point margin (52 percent to 35 percent). In July, Biden and Trump were tied among Hispanic voters with 36 percent each.

By about two-to-one, Asian voters support Harris (62 percent) over Trump (28 percent). Trump’s support among this group is essentially unchanged since July, but the share of Asian voters backing Harris is 15 points higher than the share who backed Biden in July.

On balance, White voters continue to back Trump (52 percent Trump, 41 percent Harris), though that margin is somewhat narrower than it was in the July matchup against President Biden (50 percent Trump, 36 percent President Biden).

While the age patterns present in the Harris-Trump matchup remain broadly the same as those in the Biden-Trump matchup in July, Harris performs better across age groups than Biden did last month. That improvement is somewhat more pronounced among voters under 50 than among older voters.

Today, 57 percent of voters under 30 say they support Harris, while 29 percent support Trump and 12 percent prefer Kennedy. In July, 48% of these voters said they backed Biden. Trump’s support among this group is essentially unchanged. And 12 percent now back Kennedy, down from 22 percent in July.

Voters ages 30 to 49 are now about evenly split (45 percent Harris, 43 percent Trump). This is a shift from a narrow Trump lead among this group in July.

Voters ages 50 and older continue to tilt toward Trump (50 percent Trump vs. 44 percent Harris).

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ANG BULAWAN NGA PAGSULUNDAN

(Ika- walo 0008 nga binalaybay sa serye, nga Pamatasan, ginsulat ni Ambassador, Leo Tito L. Ausan, Jr. sang ika-2 sang Agosto, 2024, sa Dhaka, Bangladesh.)

I

Ang bulawan nga pagsulundan,

Nga kasubong sang masunod ang pagsambit kag pagmitlang,

“Indî naton paghimuon sa iban,

Kon indî kita maluyag, nga sa aton, himuon man.”

Tuman katahum, simple, kag mahapos man lang kuntani sundon

Nga sahî sang pagsulundan.

II

Kon kita ang hugot nga manglubaybay lang, nga may pagka but-anan, kag magtuman,

Sa iya mga tinaga nga kaundan,

Kag indî naton pagtugotan ang aton

Mga kaugalingon,

Nga sa pagsunod sini ang magtalang-talang.

III

Ugaling kita nga mga tawo duro gid iya “kaalampuan”,

Kag ginabulubaliskad naton ang pagsunod sa sini,

Sunô sa aton mga tikô  nga bukô  kag katuyuan,

May mga yarâ sa aton nga ang pagsambit na sini sunô na sa iya malimbungon nga katuyuan kag batasan,

Sa ila kasubong na sang masunod ang pagsambit sang bulawan nga pagsulundan,

“Himua sa iban, agud ikaw ang sang subong ang pagabalikan,”

Ang nagakatabû, ang pagsulundan ginagamit na sa dinalok kag makinaugalingon nga katuyuan.

Kag daw kasubong na sang masunod, ang pagsambit sang pagsulundan,

“Hatagi sang dulot ang iban, agud ikaw ila man nga paga-dulotan.”

IV

Sa sini nga buhat, nagalain na ang kahulugan, kag nagalus-aw na ang kinang sang pagsulundan nga bulawan,

Nga kuntani sa aton pagkabuhi, maathag nga mapuslan,

Kag maka dulot pa gani sing kasulhayan.

V

Ugaling madamû gid iya, sa katawhan,

Ang sang panulay ginakunsaran,

Kag ila nga ginabulubaliskad, ining mapuslanon nga pagsulundan,

“Kon ang ila nga luyag, nga sa ila himuon man sang iban,

Ini sa iban, ila nga pagahimuon man,”

Ang bulawan nga pagsulundan ila ginabuhat nga hampanganan,

Kag ang resulta sini, amo nga ang ila isig katawo ang  nagaka biktima kag nagakaapektuhan.

Ang labing naga-athag amo, nga bisan ano pa ka simple sa paghangop,  kanamî,  kag katahum sang isa ka pagsulundan ukon kasuguan, katulad sang bulawan nga pagsulundan,

Kon hinali gani ini, nga gamiton sang tawo para sa kalainan,

INI MANGIN WALÂ NA SANG KABILINGGAN!

(The author, who is now based in New York City, used to be the editor of two daily newspapers in Iloilo.—Ed)