September inflation rises to 1.7 percent

Year-on-year headline inflation rose to 1.7% in September from 1.5% in August, landing within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 1.5% to 2.3% forecast range for the month.

Headline inflation averaged 1.7% for the first nine months of 2025, remaining below the government’s 2% to 4% target band.

Vegetable inflation jumped to 19.4% from 10.0%, becoming the single largest contributor to overall inflation due to successive weather disturbances in key production areas.

Meat inflation eased to 6.0% from 7.1% as both chicken and pork prices moderated.

Rice continued to register deflation at −16.9% from −17.0%, reflecting lower farm-gate and international prices despite reduced import arrivals following the rice import ban.

On a month-on-month seasonally adjusted basis, headline inflation eased to 0.1% in September from 0.5% in August.

Core inflation similarly slowed to 2.6% from 2.7% in August.

The BSP reiterated its commitment to maintain price stability supportive of long-run sustainable growth and employment and said it will continue to assess incoming data to calibrate monetary policy as needed.

The September 2025 outturn is within the BSP’s 1.5% to 2.3% forecast range and inflation is projected to average below the low end of target in 2025, reflecting earlier easing in rice prices.

The outlook is broadly unchanged with inflation expected to settle within the 3.0% ± 1.0 percentage-point target range in 2026 and 2027, while well-anchored expectations temper risks.

The BSP flagged upside risks from higher rice tariffs and rising global food prices over the policy horizon, partially offset by subdued global oil prices amid a stable production outlook and by the potential moderation in electricity rates.

The Monetary Board noted domestic demand has held firm but global activity remains weighed down by the impact of United States policies on trade and investment, which could temper the Philippine outlook.

For the upcoming policy meeting, the Monetary Board will review newly available information and reassess the impact of prior actions on inflation and growth.

Meanwhile, the Marcos administration is intensifying efforts to secure stable supplies and prices of basic commodities amid persistent weather disturbances, domestic challenges, and global headwinds.

“The slight uptick in inflation underscores the sensitivity of domestic food prices to supply disruptions.

We are working closely with various agencies to stabilize supply, keep essential goods affordable, and safeguard household welfare,” said Department of Economy, Planning, and Development (DEPDev) Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan.

“The Department of Agriculture will also establish food corridors to minimize supply disruptions.

These will feature greenhouses, storage, and post-harvest facilities that can strengthen the resilience of our food systems,” he added.

On rice, Balisacan said the administration is pursuing long-term policies to balance fair farm incomes, consumer affordability, and macroeconomic stability.

“What is critical is a calibrated approach that addresses the needs of both farmers and consumers while supporting the economy’s rapid, sustained, and inclusive growth,” he said.

“This requires addressing constraints from fragmented farmlands, investing in research and modern technologies, improving post-harvest and marketing systems, and expanding farmers’ access to credit, insurance, and institutional support.

These steps will help farmers better adapt to market shifts and climate risks,” he noted.