PH can avoid PHP 1.7 billion in fuel imports with 2030 solar push

By Francis Allan L. Angelo

The Philippines could avoid roughly PHP 1.7 billion (USD 28 million) in coal and gas import costs by hitting its 2030 solar capacity target, according to a new analysis released on May 4 by international research group Zero Carbon Analytics (ZCA).

The findings position renewable energy as both an immediate response to the country’s ongoing energy crisis and a long-term hedge against volatile fossil fuel prices.

ZCA’s analysis follows the declaration of a State of Energy Emergency in the Philippines, where rising power costs have exposed the consequences of heavy reliance on global fuel markets.

Meeting the Philippine Energy Plan’s target of at least 9.5 gigawatts of solar capacity by 2030 — the goal under its most conservative scenario — would let the country replace a significant share of fossil fuel generation with domestically produced clean energy, the analysis said.

ZCA noted that the projected PHP 1.7 billion in savings would more than cover the cost of the Cancer Assistance Fund earmarked for vulnerable citizens in the 2026 national budget.

Global fuel prices have surged in recent weeks. Asian liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices reached USD 16.55 per mmBtu as of April 24, up 54.3 percent since February 27, the day before the war.

Newcastle coal prices climbed as high as USD 150 per tonne on March 9 — the highest level since November 2024 — and remained at USD 133.7 per tonne as of April 24.

These spikes hit Philippine consumers directly because generation costs make up the bulk of electricity bills and are passed through to households and businesses.

“In the Philippines, where generation costs account for around 60% of electricity bills, these price shocks are passed directly on to consumers. Scaling up solar is one of the fastest and most effective ways to reduce this exposure, cutting costs and strengthening energy security. Staying on track to meet the 2030 solar target and even surpassing it will be critical to protecting Filipinos from future price shocks,” said Yu Sun Chin, senior Asia regional researcher at Zero Carbon Analytics.

The Philippine government has begun accelerating renewable deployment in response to the crisis, fast-tracking nearly 1.5 GW of solar, wind, and storage projects and activating 250 megawatts of solar capacity, the report said.

ZCA argued that embedding these short-term measures into long-term policy will be key to ensuring sustained energy affordability, resilience, and independence.

The analysis also reviewed clean energy responses across Southeast Asia, finding that several ASEAN governments have stepped up support for renewables as fuel prices climbed and supply risks intensified.

Thailand has approved THB 5 billion (approximately USD 154 million) in soft loans for measures including rooftop solar and electric vehicles.

Indonesia has announced plans to replace more than 2,000 diesel-powered plants with renewable energy systems to reduce dependence on imported fuels.

Vietnam has signaled a stronger shift toward clean energy, with updated plans to phase out coal under its Just Energy Transition Partnership and growing moves to reconsider new gas projects.

Zero Carbon Analytics is an international research group providing analysis on climate change and the energy transition.