Philippines leads Southeast Asia’s energy policy push amid Iran war

By Francis Allan L. Angelo

Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam, and the Philippines have introduced 37 renewable energy and electrification policies and 29 fossil fuel policies since the start of the Iran war, according to an analysis by Zero Carbon Analytics (ZCA).

Most of the region’s new fossil fuel policies are short-term measures with implementation periods of less than six months, while most renewable energy and electrification policies focus on long-term change, the analysis found.

The six countries introduced four times as many long-term renewable energy and electrification policies as fossil fuel policies, at 24 versus six.

The Philippines leads the region with 13 renewable energy and electrification policies, while Singapore introduced the fewest, at two.

The six countries represent the major Southeast Asian economies: the ASEAN-5 plus Vietnam.

Southeast Asia has been one of the regions hardest hit by the energy crisis caused by the conflict in Iran. Many countries in the region, especially the Philippines, Thailand, and Singapore, rely heavily on imported oil and gas for power generation.

Oil and gas prices have risen sharply since the conflict disrupted key shipping routes. Japan Korea Marker (JKM) liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices, the benchmark for LNG delivered to Northeast Asia, averaged USD 22 in August 2026. That is more than double the pre-war average of USD 10.8 in February 2026.

The price spike has led to rising power prices and outages, higher subsidy bills, and strained national budgets across the region, ZCA said.

This is the region’s second energy crisis in five years. In 2022, the Russia-Ukraine war triggered historic LNG price spikes in Asia, pushing the annual average price to more than double that of the year prior.

Those 2022 fuel prices drove up inflation and food prices for consumers in Asia and sent subsidy bills soaring in Southeast Asia. Malaysia saw a fourfold increase in subsidies, while Thailand posted a deficit in its Oil Fuel Fund.

The IEA has declared the Iran crisis the “largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.”

ZCA used the Cboe Crude Oil ETF Volatility Index (OVX) as a proxy to compare the Iran crisis with past geopolitical crises. The OVX measures 30-day forward-looking expected volatility in crude oil prices based on oil option pricing and has been calculated since mid-2007.

In the first six months of the war, crude oil was more volatile than 95% of all six-month periods since 2007, placing the crisis among the most turbulent episodes for oil markets in nearly two decades.

The analysis, conducted in August 2026, used February to July 2026 as the window for the Iran crisis. It compared this window against 225 rolling six-month windows since 2007, which ZCA noted are not independent because adjacent windows share five of six months. The baseline includes other crisis periods.

Measured against hand-picked six-month windows for other crises, the Iran crisis pushed the OVX higher than Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the 2008 financial crash but lower than COVID. ZCA said the four selected events may omit other geopolitical events that affected oil volatility during the period.

The six countries released a total of 73 energy policies from Feb. 28 to Aug. 31, 2026. Of these, 37 were renewable energy policies, 29 were fossil fuel policies, five were biofuel policies, and two were nuclear energy policies. The total is less than the sum of all categories because some policies cover several types of energy.

The data come from the Global Renewables Alliance (GRA) Global Energy Crisis Policy Monitor, to which ZCA contributed. ZCA noted that some policies may have been in the pipeline before Feb. 28.

ZCA’s research drew on the Rystad Energy Portal, accessed Aug. 19, 2026; the IEA 2026 Energy Crisis Policy Response Tracker; the Philippine Department of Energy (DOE) portal; the news archive of Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources; and the portals of Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade, Thailand’s Ministry of Energy, Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry, and Malaysia’s Ministry of Energy Transition and Water Transformation.

ZCA classified short-term policies as those with implementation periods of less than six months and long-term policies as those running roughly three years or more.

Sixty-five percent of the 37 renewable energy and electrification policies were long-term, compared with 21% of the 29 fossil fuel policies.

Of the renewable energy and electrification policies, four were short-term, nine were medium-term, and 24 were long-term. Of the fossil fuel policies, 19 were short-term, four were medium-term, and six were long-term.

ZCA said this suggests renewables and electrification are seen as long-term solutions for future energy systems, while fossil fuel policies were primarily focused on temporary relief.

The Philippines introduced the most energy policies of the six countries, with 22, leading in both fossil fuel and renewable energy policies. Its total includes 13 renewable energy and electrification policies and nine fossil fuel policies.

ZCA said the lead is likely due to the country’s declaration of a national energy emergency on March 24, 2026. The declaration listed emergency relief measures, such as directly procuring oil and increasing government control over fuel prices, along with longer-term steps to accelerate renewables, electric vehicles (EVs), and energy efficiency across all sectors.

Vietnam and Thailand followed with seven and six clean energy policies, respectively. Both countries matched those numbers in fossil fuel policies, at seven and six.

Thailand is approving several loan packages to support solar and EVs, while Vietnam issued a decree allowing data centers and EV charging stations to buy green power directly.

Indonesia introduced five renewable energy policies, four fossil fuel policies, one biofuel policy, and one nuclear policy. In March 2026, it announced it would add 100 GW of solar in the next three years.

Malaysia released four renewable energy policies, one fossil fuel policy, and one biofuel policy. Singapore released two renewable energy policies, two fossil fuel policies, and one nuclear policy. Thailand also released two biofuel policies, and Vietnam one.

Eighteen policies across the six countries focused on expanding solar capacity. The Philippines fast-tracked at least 250 MW of solar capacity to the grid, while Singapore raised its 2030 solar deployment target to 3 GWp.

Several countries moved to lower the cost of distributed systems such as rooftop solar. Thailand raised its quota for residential rooftop solar users selling power to the grid to 500 MW, while Vietnam allowed residents to sell up to 50% of their solar output to the grid.

The Philippines introduced low-interest loans for rooftop solar for government employees. It also shortened rooftop solar permitting for residential users, clinics, hospitals, and medical facilities.

Seven policies focused on expanding storage to support renewable power. The DOE said in March it would require developers of new renewable energy projects to integrate energy storage systems, amending Department Circular No. DC2023-04-0008, or the Energy Storage Systems Policy.

The Philippines is connecting 250 MW of solar and 450 MWh of battery storage to the grid. The DOE also announced it would fast-track 1.471 GW of renewable energy and storage online by the end of April 2026.

In July, Vietnam commissioned its first large-scale, grid-connected battery energy storage system in the capital, with 50 MW of output capacity and 100 MWh of storage.

Six policies focused on boosting electrification and EV adoption amid rising fuel prices. The Philippines’ national energy emergency directive includes measures to expand EV adoption in mass transport.

Thailand introduced a THB 400 billion emergency loan in July, half of which includes financing for longer-term transition measures such as more EVs and charging stations.

Three policies covered green power purchases. Vietnam expanded its Direct Power Purchase Agreement rules to let data centers, EV charging stations, and battery-swapping facilities buy renewable electricity directly from producers.

Thailand launched Green Utility Tariff rates (UGT2), allowing all corporate buyers to purchase renewable power from the grid, both directly and through renewable energy certificates, even when the renewable facility is far from the point of use.

On the fossil fuel side, countries moved to secure emergency supplies. Indonesia said it would reallocate IDR 130 trillion toward energy subsidies and in August began planning a long-term deal to import Russian crude oil.

As part of its emergency response, the Philippines set up a PHP 20 billion fund in March to procure up to 2 million barrels of fuel. In July, it established its first government-managed Strategic Petroleum Reserve facility.

The House Committee on Energy approved a bill on Aug. 12 that aims to officially establish the reserve facility.

Vietnam ordered the accelerated development of a crude oil reserve, while Thailand increased mandatory fuel reserves.

Some countries also moved to increase coal output. Thailand ordered the restart of two decommissioned units at a coal-fired power plant, and Indonesia worked to secure coal supply for state utility PLN.

The Philippines said it is looking to fast-track up to 5 GW of new coal capacity, while Vietnam said it was considering building more coal plants.

Governments also moved to cushion vehicle fuel costs. The DOE said it would regulate pump price adjustments and provide fuel subsidies for bus, taxi, delivery, and ride-hailing drivers, as well as other transport workers.

Vietnam reduced domestic fuel prices through its Fuel Price Stabilisation Fund, while Singapore rolled out a SGD 1 billion relief package, part of which supports transport workers.

Almost all of the countries, including Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam, introduced policies mandating the blending of diesel with biofuels such as palm oil or ethanol.

ZCA also assessed implementation in the four countries with the most policies: the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia.

The Philippines introduced at least seven solar power policies since the war began. The proposed Sariling Kuryente Act seeks to make solar and battery storage installation easier for households by removing permitting requirements and utility-applied charges.

The DOE also fast-tracked net metering applications to help lower power bills.

During the first five months of the war, the Philippines imported more than double the solar capacity from China compared with the same period last year. From March to July 2026, the country imported 9,523.04 MW of solar wafers, cells, and panels from China, up from 4,076.21 MW from March to July 2025.

On April 1, 2026, the DOE announced it would bring 1.47 GW of renewable energy and storage online by the end of the month. ZCA said the goal was achieved, largely due to the Meralco Terra project, described as the “world’s largest integrated solar and battery storage facility,” which added 750 MW to the grid in mid-July.

Nearly a month after its release in March, the Ginhawa Solar Energy Loan had drawn PHP 5.7 billion in applications.

The DOE said in mid-August that the fuel subsidy for public utility vehicles, first implemented under the national energy emergency, will continue until the end of the year due to volatile fuel prices.

In Vietnam, rooftop solar companies reported a significant increase in demand for consultations since June, after a new decree allowed rooftop solar systems to sell more excess power to Vietnam Electricity (EVN).

Several of Vietnam’s policies that moved forward, however, involved fuel price regulation. As of September, the Ministry of Industry and Trade set rules on moving state budget funds to the Fuel Price Stabilisation Fund, first introduced in March.

Vietnam’s temporary tax cuts on petrol and oil, first rolled out in April, were extended by three months until Sept. 30.

By midyear, Vietnam had started preparations for the Ninh Thuan 1 and 2 nuclear power projects, including land clearance and approval of cost estimates.

Vietnam also rolled out a mandatory 10% ethanol blending requirement for gasoline across all urban areas in August.

In Thailand, the draft Power Development Plan, the country’s national energy plan, projects an 89% clean electricity share by 2050 in one of four scenarios under consultation as of September.

In July, Thailand’s Constitutional Court ruled that the government’s emergency loan decree, which covers both immediate relief and longer-term energy transition initiatives such as clean energy and EVs, is constitutional. The ruling allows the government to proceed with the plan.

Thailand raised its net billing rooftop solar quota from 100 MW to 500 MW in April in response to public demand.

Thai ministries are assessing the feasibility of expanding an initiative to help 1 million households install rooftop solar through a THB 50,000 loan to 1.5 million households, expected to launch in mid-October.

The initiative is part of a THB 200 billion (USD 6.1 billion) loan package for the energy transition, which includes rooftop solar for villages. For the first phase of 500,000 households, state-owned utilities MEA and PEA are accepting registrations from rooftop solar installers and equipment suppliers.

In Indonesia, the 100 GW solar plan has been included in the latest revision of the General Plan for Electricity Supply (RUPTL), according to the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources.

The first phase, consisting of 14 plants in six provinces with a total capacity of 5.3 GW, had launched as of August. Some projects, such as the 92 MWp Saguling project, were listed under the Just Energy Transition Partnership.

Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa announced in August that Indonesia’s EV incentive package would be available starting around the third quarter of 2026. The package covers value-added tax exemptions of up to 100% for certain EV purchases and covers 500,000 electric motorcycles and cars.

As of August, Indonesia is also considering targeted fuel restrictions, such as limiting purchases of subsidized Pertalite, a RON90 petrol, by households in the top 20% of income groups.

ZCA said the findings indicate that Southeast Asian governments, many with abundant renewable energy resources, are turning to renewables and electrification as the long-term answer to fossil fuel-driven power crises.

The group said prioritizing grid modernization will be key to ensuring that domestic and cross-border transmission and distribution systems can absorb growing renewable capacity. It cited battery energy storage systems, interconnectors, and smart meters as key technologies.