Losing steam

By Artchil B. Fernandez

The year 2025 began with House Marcos ascendant. Team Tigre launched a twin offensive against Team Agila, leaving the Dutertes twisting in the wind.

The first shock came in the second month of 2025. The House of Representatives voted overwhelmingly (215 members) to impeach Vice President Sara Duterte. The impeachment was a huge blow to the Dutertes. The current vice president is the remaining ace of the Dutertes to return to power. Sara Duterte faces perpetual disqualification to hold public office if found guilty of the charges against her.

But a bigger shock awaited the Dutertes in the third month of 2025. The unthinkable happened. The Duterte patriarch, former president Rodrigo Duterte, was arrested on the strength of a warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) coursed through Interpol. Less than 24 hours after the former populist strongman was arrested, he was flown to The Hague and handed over to the ICC.

The arrest and turnover of the elder Duterte to the ICC is the biggest nightmare of the Dutertes. They were aware of the possibility and tried to stave it off with an alliance with the Marcoses in the 2022 election. The victory of the UniTeam for the Dutertes was an iron-clad guarantee that an ICC arrest, detention, and trial would never happen. This is the reason the Dutertes feared a pink win in 2022.

But fate played a cruel joke on the Dutertes. Just when they felt secure and safe, the inconceivable became a reality. The UniTeam unraveled and imploded. A bitter feud between House Duterte and House Marcos ensued. Rodrigo Duterte ended up in The Hague. The Dutertes are angry, embittered, and raging for vengeance. What hurt the Dutertes the most is the fact that it was not the hated pinklawans who turned their worst nightmare into reality but their erstwhile allies, the Marcoses, whom they helped return to power. It was a bitter pill for the Dutertes to swallow.

Suddenly, the Marcoses became the Dutertes’ hostile enemy. With the advantage of being in power, House Marcos slowly choked House Duterte. Vice President Sara Duterte resigned her Cabinet post and was subjected to intense investigation by the House. The House also looked into the flagship program of the previous administration—the bloody and gory war against illegal drugs. Digging into the dark past of the elder Duterte administration became the favorite pastime of the present administration.

Then came the fatal blow, a double whammy—Sara Duterte’s impeachment and Rodrigo Duterte’s ICC arrest and turnover—which left the Dutertes on the ropes. The Marcoses are on the verge of ultimate victory, and the Dutertes are gasping for their final breath. In the first quarter of 2025, the Marcoses are seemingly invincible, while the Dutertes are at their most vulnerable.

Yet today, a different picture is emerging. In another twist of events, House Marcos is losing steam, while House Duterte is resurgent. What happened?

The impeachment of Sara Duterte hit a major snag when the Senate refused to convene itself as the impeachment court upon receiving the impeachment complaint from the House. Senate President Chiz Escudero shrewdly and maliciously concocted outlandish and outrageous alibis to derail the trial of Sara Duterte in the Senate.

The delay in the impeachment trial favored the Dutertes while it exposed the weakness of the Marcoses. Either the Marcoses failed to consolidate their forces in the Senate to push for the trial of Sara Duterte, or they were reluctant to push the button further. Whatever the reason, failure of the Marcoses to hold a Senate trial played into the hands of the Dutertes. The hesitancy of the Marcoses cost them dearly.

The inability of the administration to hold an impeachment trial bought time for the Dutertes. The situation enabled them to consolidate their forces and maneuver to prevent the trial from moving forward. The indecision of the Marcoses also allowed fence-sitting and opportunistic senators like Chiz Escudero to take advantage of the impasse to push their selfish agenda.

Election results further complicated the situation. Neither the Marcoses, nor the Dutertes, nor the pinklawans emerged as the dominant bloc in the post-election scene. The election produced a political stalemate that muddled the situation. The Marcoses are immobilized by the election result, while the Dutertes, despite not getting their desired outcome, still hyped the result as favorable to them.

The Marcoses appeared paralyzed, indecisive, and confused about their next move, while the Dutertes had a single, clear goal—stop the impeachment trial at all costs. The war is waged on all fronts: the election, the Senate, and the Supreme Court. So far, as shown by the present outcome, the Dutertes are gaining the upper hand. The Supreme Court voided the impeachment complaint, and the Senate archived the case.

It is a marvel to behold how the Marcoses are losing the initiative while the Dutertes are regaining their momentum. As things currently stand, the Marcoses appear immobilized, while the Dutertes are fired up and raring to rumble.

If the trend continues, the Marcoses are treading on perilous ground. They must seize back their advantage and halt the resurgence of the Dutertes. As Bongbong Marcos (BBM) enters his lame-duck years, pressure is piling up on the Marcoses. They must arrest their political decline and prevent the Dutertes from recovering. Failure means political—or even physical—annihilation of the Marcoses once the Dutertes return to power.

Reversing their present predicament is the only option left for the Marcoses. Should they fail, they will face the full wrath of the Dutertes, who are lusting for revenge once Sara Duterte is triumphant in 2028.