[False] The world has ended already? Claim says end was this November’s Friday the 13th

By Twyla Angela P. Constantino (Contributor)

University of Santo Tomas

There have been numerous posts on Facebook claiming that the end of the world will be this November 13, 2026, according to some scientists’ mathematical predictions. You may not even be able to read this article anymore.

But the claim is MISLEADING. There is a real scientific paper published in 1960 on a mathematical population growth study by Heinz von Foerster, Patricia Mora, and Lawrence Amiot (titled Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A.D. 2026.” The study projected that if the population continues to grow with the same pattern as the previous two millennia, the population will approach infinity this November 13, 2026.

There is a scientific basis for the possible end of humanity but claiming the end of the world on such a date is misleading.

The paper studied population trends from 1AD to 1958, and historical population records show that the future population will have a super-exponential growth. The scientists fitted an equation that resulted in 2026.87 being the time where humanity will blow up to infinity. Hence, the predicted year is 2026, and 0.87 of the year is the 317.55th day, which falls on November 13.

The original study is a mere extrapolation of the historical growth pattern of the human population into the future. Its basis of earlier growth patterns cannot solely be a basis to describe population trends indefinitely. The study does not account for the possibility that demographic conditions would change. Population growth is influenced by several factors including fertility, life expectancy, age structure, and migration, writes a piece by the Pew Research Center.

More recent research on population projections now account for changes in fertility and mortality. A study by Vollset et al. in 2020 projected population trends for 195 countries and found that the world’s population will likely peak at about 9.7 billion around 2064, then fall to about 8.8 billion by 2100. The same study also estimates that the population of 23 countries, including Japan, Spain, and China, could shrink by half or more by 2100.

In contrast, the United Nations projected that the global population will grow to 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s before gradually falling by the end of the century. The United Nations also reported that the fertility rate has declined from 3.3 births per woman in 1990 to 2.3 births per woman in 2024. More than half of all countries have a fertility below 2.1 births per woman.

Although the two studies predict slightly different population peaks, both show that global population growth has changed significantly since the original study was published.

Furthermore, economic and social conditions can also influence population trends. Improvements in education and access to healthcare can affect how many children people will choose to have, especially women. As women gain greater access to education and reproductive healthcare, fertility rates often decline. The projected changes in population growth discussed in Vollset and colleagues are partly attributed to women having fewer children as they gain greater access to education and contraception.

Additionally, scientists under the Complexity Science Hub will be conducting a conference on November 12-13 to examine the 1960 prediction and discuss the “Sense and Nonsense” of the end-of-the-world predictions. [5]

The claim which this author checked includes a specific imminent catastrophic event that is only weeks from now, which may cause fear and panic among people.

But if you have finished reading this article, the world hasn’t ended yet.

References

• Von Foerster, H., Mora, P. M., & Amiot, L. W. (1960). Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, D. 2026. Science, 132(3436), 1291–1295.

https://www2.bioinfo.rpi.edu/bystrc/courses/biol4520/Doomsday.pdf

• Wormald, B. (2026, May 22). Main factors driving population growth. Pew Research https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2015/04/02/main-factors-driving-population-growth/
• Vollset S, Goren E, Yuan C et al. Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study

The                          Lancet,                          2020;                          396,                          1285-1306

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30677-2/fulltext

• United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population (2024). World population prospects 2024: Summary of results. https://population.un.org/wpp/assets/Files/WPP2024_Key-Messages.pdf?
• 13 November 2026 Doomsday Conference – On the Sense and Nonsense of End-of-the-World Predictions * Complexity Science Hub. (n.d.). Complexity Science Hub. https://csh.ac.at/events/doomsday-conference-on-the-sense-and-nonsense-of-end-of-the-world-predictions/

Twyla Angela Constantino is a graduating BS in Chemical Engineering student of the University of Santo Tomas. She wrote this piece as a requirement for her elective course Fact Checking, Verification and Digital Literacy this first term of Academic Year 2026-2027. UST’s Department of Journalism is offering the said course, targeting non-journalism students.