PROGRESS FOR WHOM?: UP scientists poke holes in Pax Silica

QUEZON CITY — University of the Philippines (UP) experts questioned who stands to gain from the country’s participation in Pax Silica, the U.S.-led initiative to secure supply chains for artificial intelligence (AI), semiconductors, and critical minerals. They cited its potential costs to mining communities, water supply, biodiversity, and foreign policy.

The experts spoke at “PAX SILICA: Progress for Whom?”, a public forum held on Oct. 19, 2026, by the UP Diliman College of Science (UPD-CS) through its Science and Society Program, as part of the college’s 43rd anniversary.

Speakers from various fields examined the initiative’s potential implications for the Philippines and helped onsite and online attendees better understand what Pax Silica could mean for the country.

Beyond its promises of technological advancement and economic growth, the initiative prompts a closer examination of how it could shape Philippine society and affect ordinary Filipinos.

“For the Philippines, participation in this initiative raises important questions,” UPD-CS Associate Dean Leilani Dacones said.

“What opportunities might it bring to our science and technology sectors? How might it affect our industries, research institutions, and workforce? And perhaps most importantly, who stands to benefit from these developments, and what challenges or trade-offs should we consider?” she said.

The Philippines joined Pax Silica in April 2026 as its 13th member, with Trade Undersecretary Ceferino Rodolfo signing the declaration on April 17, according to the Philippine News Agency.

At the center of the country’s participation is a proposed 4,000-acre, or roughly 1,620-hectare, industrial hub in New Clark City in Capas, Tarlac, on land administered by the Bases Conversion and Development Authority (BCDA).

The BCDA now calls the project the “Clark Advanced Manufacturing Park.” It has said the site will host manufacturing rather than data centers and that development could begin in three to five years.

The challenge of sustainable mining

UP School of Economics professor Cielo Magno examined Pax Silica in the context of global competition over critical minerals.

She said public discourse had shifted from plans to establish data centers in Clark, Pampanga, which raised concerns about water and energy use, to mining and downstream processing.

Magno pointed to the country’s position in the global nickel industry, noting that the Philippines and Indonesia together account for more than 70% of global nickel production.

However, much of the nickel produced in both countries goes to China for processing, she said.

“Of the 20 critical minerals needed for the energy transition, China also controls the processing of 19,” she added. “Against this backdrop, we can better understand the United States’ interest in the Philippines.”

Magno said a memorandum of understanding between the United States and the Philippines was part of the broader Pax Silica package.

Although the memorandum has not been made public, she said she learned about it from contacts at the Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR).

Based on the information she received, the agreement would reportedly give the United States first access to mining areas in the Philippines.

“I have been discussing mining for over a decade, and the conversation about downstream processing has gained momentum,” she explained. “How do we maximize this opportunity, and how will we, as a country, benefit?”

Magno also discussed the “resource curse,” a phenomenon in which countries rich in natural resources fail to achieve corresponding economic development.

She said several factors contribute to the resource curse, including macroeconomic conditions, but poor governance remains a major concern.

Mineral extraction alone does not guarantee development, she said.

According to Magno, the Philippine government must ensure fair compensation for the extraction of mineral resources, long-term benefits for future generations, and accountability for the social and environmental costs of mining.

“The Philippine government must also have a comprehensive sustainable development plan for mining communities. Mining is highly mechanized and technical, so it does not necessarily create a significant number of jobs. Mining revenues should therefore be used to support other industries independent of mining, ensuring that communities have alternative sources of livelihood when mining operations end,” Magno added.

Water supply challenges

Jelaine Gan of the UPD-CS Institute of Biology said the Philippines’ strengths under the Pax Silica initiative lie in its critical minerals, talent, and strategic location.

She took these to mean the country’s mineral resources, its workforce — including its relatively low-cost labor — and its geographic position in the Philippine archipelago.

“The proposed site for Pax Silica covers approximately 3.3 times the area of UP Diliman,” she said. “Allocating land for one purpose means displacing other uses. This land is used for agriculture by Indigenous communities.”

Gan showed an aerial view of the proposed site, which consists of agricultural fields, small patches of forest, and built-up areas.

Drawing on her background in landscape ecology, she said even areas that appear barren or no longer support wildlife may still harbor important biodiversity.

Gan said Filipinos need to study the species and ecosystems present in the area and assess what could be affected, rather than overlook the site’s environmental and biodiversity value.

She noted that the Philippines is one of the world’s megadiverse countries, with many species found nowhere else.

Destroying this ecosystem, she warned, could have negative consequences for the country’s biodiversity.

The proposed site is also bordered by a river system.

“I think of Pax Silica as a brain—a processing center. Like the brain, it needs resources to function, including water supplied by this river system. When the brain is damaged, it can experience imbalances and release toxins that circulate throughout the body and affect other areas. Similarly, the river system may serve not only as a source of water for the facility but also as a potential pathway for its waste,” Gan said.

According to the BCDA, the proposed site would require 65 million to 90 million liters of water per day.

Gan said this is equivalent to approximately 26 to 36 Olympic-sized swimming pools daily.

At the maximum projected consumption, this would amount to more than 13,000 Olympic-sized swimming pools a year, she said.

Diverting the projected water supply to Pax Silica would equal the total residential water needs of either Angeles City or Baguio City, according to Gan.

Proponents have said the facility would use surface water from the Bangot, O’Donnell, and Abacan rivers instead of groundwater, but Gan said this could require dams or reservoirs.

She also questioned the feasibility of desalination, given Tarlac’s distance from the coast and the need to transport seawater inland and dispose of the resulting brine.

“So it doesn’t make sense, at least for me,” she said.

Pressure to choose sides

Herman Joseph Kraft, a professor at the Department of Political Science of the UP Diliman College of Social Sciences and Philosophy, drew on the Greek epic “The Odyssey” to frame the Philippines’ foreign policy choices amid shifting international dynamics.

He cited Odysseus’ dilemma of navigating between two sea monsters, Scylla and Charybdis.

Guided by Circe, Odysseus had to choose between passing near Scylla, which would cost him six crew members, or risking the destruction of his entire ship and crew by passing near Charybdis.

Kraft used the dilemma to illustrate choosing between two evils, echoing the difficult choices the Philippines faces as it considers Pax Silica.

“Is there no way of avoiding Charybdis while keeping Scylla at bay?” Kraft asked.

He drew a parallel to the need for the country to reduce its vulnerabilities and avoid choices that leave it with limited options.

The dilemma is particularly relevant as the international system undergoes changes beyond the Philippines’ control, Kraft said.

As neither a great power nor a major international player, the Philippines must find ways to navigate these developments while advancing and protecting its own interests, he said.

Kraft noted that the Philippines has consistently favored closer ties with the United States over China, even as Chinese influence grows across Southeast Asia.

He linked this preference to the ongoing competition between the two powers, which he said has raised concerns about countries being forced to choose sides.

According to Kraft, the Philippines’ role in manufacturing and critical mineral processing ties Pax Silica to the broader U.S.-China competition for global dominance.

China has launched its own initiative, the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization, underscoring the rivalry between the two powers and the pressure on countries to choose sides.

The Philippines is caught in this rivalry, particularly because of its disputes with China in the West Philippine Sea and its alliance with the United States.

However, Kraft questioned whether the country must choose between the two powers, emphasizing the need to strengthen its position and protect its interests.

Philippine industrialization

Giovanni Tapang of the UPD-CS National Institute of Physics questioned who would benefit from the Philippines’ role in supplying critical minerals under Pax Silica.

He argued that the United States identifies the minerals it needs, while the Philippines is expected to extract and process them using its land, labor, electricity, and water — and shoulder the resulting environmental costs.

Tapang also noted that the U.S. critical minerals list includes copper and nickel, both of which are found in the Philippines.

“Industrialization is not about having industries or factories in the country. Having factories here or producing electronic chips does not necessarily mean that we produce the electronic products we need. These factories may be located here, but their production is not necessarily intended for us. That has been the story of our electronics industry for the past 50 years. These products are largely made for other countries rather than being made available and affordable to Filipinos,” he said.

Tapang asked whether the factories and equipment planned under Pax Silica would help the Philippines develop its own industries or primarily serve the production needs of other countries, especially the United States.

He also questioned what the country would gain in return for providing the minerals, workforce, and training needed for these operations.

“If we are not building AI data centers or mineral processing facilities, but simply attracting more electronics companies, we must consider the experiences of Filipino workers in these industries. They face difficult working conditions, low wages, and restrictions on their ability to organize into unions. Are these the kinds of jobs we want to create? We should be creating opportunities for our engineers, scientists, and other skilled workers,” he said.

However, Tapang noted that opportunities for Filipino skilled workers could remain limited if foreign companies set up operations primarily to meet their own needs rather than those of the country.