Duterte impeachment survey: Evidence now beats public opinion

More Filipinos now want senator-judges in Vice President Sara Duterte’s impeachment trial to base their votes on evidence rather than public opinion, reversing July results when public opinion held a narrow edge, according to a Momentum Research survey released Friday.

The non-commissioned National Momentum Survey, conducted Aug. 18 to 23, asked Filipino adults nationwide what they personally believe should be the basis of a senator-judge’s vote.

It found that 38.6% favored the strength or weakness of the evidence presented, up from 36.3% in July.

The 2.3-percentage-point gain falls within the survey’s national margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

Despite the marginal increase, the preference for evidence became more pronounced because the share of adults who want senator-judges to decide based on public opinion fell 6 percentage points, from 36.8% in July to 30.8% in August.

Fewer Filipino adults also believe senator-judges should vote according to their own conscience, with that share dropping to 6.4% from 10%.

More respondents, however, now say senator-judges should decide based on their own and their allies’ political interests, with the share rising to 13.6% in August from 8% in July.

That is about 1 in 7 adults, compared with about 1 in 12 a month earlier.

Meanwhile, about a tenth of Filipino adults, or 10.6%, were either unsure or declined to answer, with the unsure share unchanged at 7.1% and refusals rising to 3.5% from 1.8%.

Figure 1. Basis of senator-judges’ decision, July and August 2026

(Chart: Momentum Research)

Almost half of Gen Z want evidence as basis

Across generations, Gen Z Filipinos showed the strongest preference for evidence-based votes at 48.5%, a 20.5-percentage-point lead over public opinion at 28%.

Millennials (37.6%) and Gen X (34.2%) also lean toward evidence, but by narrower margins over public opinion, which drew 28.2% and 30.8%, respectively.

Baby boomers and the Silent Generation, grouped together in the survey, are the only generational group more likely to prefer that senator-judges vote based on public opinion (43.8%) than on their assessment of the evidence (24.9%).

Although evidence and public opinion remain millennials’ top two answers, about 1 in 5 millennials, or 20.2%, say senator-judges should follow the political interests of their allies when voting on whether to convict or acquit Duterte.

This compares with 10.3% of Gen Z, 12.1% of Gen X, and 6.9% of baby boomers and the Silent Generation.

The senator-judges’ own conscience drew 5.8% among Gen Z, 6.1% among millennials, 7.4% among Gen X, and 7.2% among baby boomers and the Silent Generation.

Those unsure made up 6.8% of Gen Z, 3.2% of millennials, 10.7% of Gen X, and 12% of baby boomers and the Silent Generation, while refusals stood at 0.7%, 4.7%, 4.8%, and 5.2%, respectively.

The generational subsamples consisted of 314 Gen Z, 411 millennial, 429 Gen X, and 283 baby boomer and Silent Generation respondents, and Momentum Research noted that margins of error are larger for these disaggregated estimates.

By region

Evidence topped every region as a basis for impeachment votes, at 39.9% in Metro Manila, 44.5% in the rest of Luzon, 37% in the Visayas, and 27.6% in Mindanao.

Mindanao, however, showed the closest three-way split among evidence (27.6%), public opinion (22%), and the political interests of allies (21.1%).

The Visayas followed a similar pattern, with 37% for evidence, 28.2% for public opinion, and 22.8% for the interests of allies, the highest share for political interests of any region.

In Metro Manila, 32.8% chose public opinion, 12.7% the political interests of allies, and 11.4% the senator-judges’ own conscience, while 2% were unsure and 1.2% declined to answer.

In the rest of Luzon, 35.7% chose public opinion, 6.2% the political interests of allies, and 4.3% conscience, while 5.6% were unsure and 3.7% declined to answer.

In the Visayas, 5.6% cited conscience, 6% were unsure, and 0.3% declined to answer.

In Mindanao, 8.5% cited conscience, 13.8% were unsure, and 7% declined to answer.

By faction

Along partisan lines, pro-opposition Filipinos showed the clearest preference for evidence-based votes, with nearly half (45.9%) saying it should be the basis of a senator-judge’s decision, compared with 26.2% for public opinion.

Momentum Research defines pro-opposition Filipinos as those who align themselves with former Vice President Leni Robredo, Sen. Risa Hontiveros, Sen. Bam Aquino, and their allies.

Independents share the same view at 42.2%, but by a narrower margin over public opinion at 31.9%.

Pro-Marcos respondents form the only group in which public opinion (37.9%) outranks evidence (28.5%).

Pro-Duterte Filipinos are more divided, with a slightly stronger preference for evidence (35.1%) over public opinion (30.9%).

These two factions also have the highest shares saying senator-judges should vote based on the political interests of their allies, at 17.4% among pro-Marcos and 18.8% among pro-Duterte respondents, compared with 15.1% among pro-opposition respondents and 10.2% among independents.

The senator-judges’ own conscience drew 8.5% among pro-Marcos, 7.1% among pro-Duterte, 3.7% among pro-opposition, and 6.3% among independent respondents.

Those unsure made up 3.2%, 7%, 6.7%, and 4.8% of the four groups, respectively, while refusals stood at 4.6%, 1.1%, 2.3%, and 4.6%.

Slightly more Filipinos trust impeachment court

Trust in the Senate impeachment court to be “fair and impartial” also edged up over the first two months of the vice president’s trial, from 49.3% in July to 53.4% in August.

The August figure comprises 40.4% of Filipino adults who trust the court to fulfill its duty and 13.1% who strongly trust it, up from 36.6% and 12.7%, respectively, in July.

Figure 2. Trust in the Senate as an impeachment court, July and August 2026

(Chart: Momentum Research)

The gain in trust appears to come from a drop in distrust, as the share of adults who do not trust the court fell from 42.3% in July to 33.4% in August, a decline of 8.9 percentage points.

Those who said they do not trust the court fell to 28% from 35.5%, while those who strongly distrust it dropped to 5.4% from 6.8%.

Some of that movement, however, may also have gone to the undecided, whose share rose modestly from 6.2% to 9.7%, while 3.4% declined to answer in August.

Factionally, pro-Duterte respondents are the only group relatively divided in their trust in the Senate as an impeachment court, with 46.4% saying they trust it to be “fair and impartial” and 41.2% saying they distrust it.

All other partisan groups, including independents, have a clear majority that trusts the Senate as an impeachment court.

Among pro-Marcos respondents, 18.4% strongly trust and 47.6% trust the court, while 15.4% distrust and 4.9% strongly distrust it, with 10.2% unsure and 3.4% declining to answer.

Among pro-Duterte respondents, 15.9% strongly trust and 30.5% trust the court, while 34.9% distrust and 6.3% strongly distrust it, with 11.7% unsure and 0.7% declining to answer.

Among pro-opposition respondents, 12.4% strongly trust and 45.5% trust the court, while 34.3% distrust and 1.8% strongly distrust it, with 5.5% unsure and 0.5% declining to answer.

Among independents, 10.3% strongly trust and 45.3% trust the court, while 27.7% distrust and 6% strongly distrust it, with 6.6% unsure and 4.2% declining to answer.

At the time the survey was conducted, however, the court had not yet reopened the issue of the conviction threshold vote.

At the opening of the trial on July 6, Escudero ruled that 16 votes, or two-thirds of the Senate’s full 24-member membership, would be required to convict Duterte, Gulf News reported.

On Sept. 23, the impeachment court voted 13-1 to sustain a Sept. 8 appeal by Senator-judge Erwin Tulfo, reducing the threshold from 16 to 14 votes based on the 20 senator-judges considered capable of participating, the Philippine Daily Inquirer reported.

Escudero cast the lone dissenting vote, while six senator-judges, namely Alan Peter Cayetano, Pia Cayetano, Imee Marcos, Bong Go, Camille Villar, and Robinhood Padilla, abstained.

The new threshold ruling has since been challenged before the Supreme Court, according to the Inquirer.

2 in 3 approve of Escudero

Momentum Research also asked Filipino adults to rate the performance of Sen. Francis “Chiz” Escudero as presiding officer of Duterte’s impeachment trial.

In August, 65.8% rated his performance favorably, up from 58% in July.

The August rating comprises 60.8% who said he performed well and 5% who said he performed very well, compared with 54.9% who said he performed well in July.

Figure 3. Performance of Sen. Chiz Escudero as presiding officer, July and August 2026

(Chart: Momentum Research)

Escudero, who as Senate president in the 19th Congress was criticized for taking months to convene the impeachment court after the articles of impeachment were transmitted in 2025, now earns good marks from most Filipino adults.

The Senate convened as an impeachment court in June 2025 with Escudero as presiding officer, but the Supreme Court unanimously declared the impeachment complaint against Duterte unconstitutional in July 2025, stopping that trial, the Inquirer reported.

Only 20.3% are now dissatisfied with his performance, compared with 31% in July.

Those who said he did not perform well fell to 18.6% from 27.2%.

However, slightly more Filipino adults are also unsure or declined to answer, at 10.5%, with the unsure share alone rising to 7.6% from 7%.

Another 3.4% said they do not know who Escudero is.

The National Momentum Survey was conducted Aug. 18 to 23 through face-to-face interviews with a nationally representative sample of 1,487 Filipino adults.

It has a national margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.

Subnational margins of error are plus or minus 6.9 percentage points for the National Capital Region, 3.8 points for the rest of Luzon (North, South, and Central Luzon), 5.8 points for the Visayas, and 5.5 points for Mindanao, all at a 95% confidence level.

The July round was conducted July 13 to 16 with 1,438 respondents.

The August 2026 issue of the survey, Momentum Research’s flagship initiative, also covered government performance, voting intentions for the 2028 national elections, and national issues including Pax Silica, systems loss, the minimum wage, the Barangay and Sangguniang Kabataan Elections, and school-related violence.

Momentum Research, which describes itself as a nonpartisan public opinion research firm, has posted the complete results on its public dashboard at momentumresearch.ph.