El Niño could cut Iloilo water to 6 hours daily

ILOILO CITY — Households served by Metro Pacific Iloilo Water Inc. (MPIW) could get as little as zero to six hours of water a day if supply falls to 50 million liters per day (MLD), the worst-case scenario the utility has mapped out for the looming super El Niño.

To soften the impact, MPIW is banking on an additional 25 MLD from augmentation measures, including modular desalination plants, water recovered from leaking pipes, and new groundwater wells under the Metro Iloilo Bulk Water Supply Corp. (MIB).

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in a Sept. 23 climate advisory that a strong El Niño active in the tropical Pacific is expected to intensify into a very strong event during the September-to-December 2026 season and persist through the first half of 2027.

PAGASA Iloilo weather specialist Ferdinand Rubin said all five Western Visayas provinces could receive below-normal to way-below-normal rainfall from December 2026 through March 2027, conditions that could lead to dry spells and drought.

MPIW’s projections are based on its experience during the “mild” El Niño in 2024, which lasted for just over three months.

During the 2024 El Niño, MPIW’s supply fell by 26 MLD after deliveries from two of its bulk water suppliers dropped — MIB to 23.99 MLD and FLOWater to 30.92 MLD.

“The 50 MLD is really the worst-case scenario for 2027. If the very strong El Niño prolongs, we have 25 MLD in supply augmentation. Hopefully, we will not reach 60 MLD supply or lower than that since we also have augmentation,” MPIW Chief Operating Officer Angelo David Berba said Friday.

Desalination plants

One of the modular desalination plants, being installed in Barangay Nabitasan, La Paz, is expected to be operational by mid-October or the first week of November.

Berba said the project is in its final stages and is only awaiting transformers, expected by Oct. 15, before the plant can be energized.

The facility will add 1 MLD to the water supply by the end of 2026, enough to serve about 1,000 households.

MPIW plans to establish five modular desalination plants across the city, each with a capacity of 1 MLD.

Berba said two other sites are near Ateneo de Iloilo and R. Mapa Street, where MPIW is securing rights-of-way and permits.

Both facilities are projected to begin operations in February 2027.

The locations of the remaining two facilities have yet to be identified.

“These are all temporary so that we can have water during El Niño because the reduction in supply that we are expecting is significant, and we need mitigating measures,” Berba said.

Pipe repairs and new wells

MPIW is also banking on its nonrevenue water reduction initiatives through pipe replacement projects.

Nonrevenue water refers to water that is produced but lost before reaching paying customers, mostly through leaks.

MPIW is targeting the energization of the HS Jaro Total Pipe Replacement Project by December.

The utility’s findings showed that it is losing 10 MLD along the HS Jaro line alone.

Berba said MPIW’s pipe replacement projects across the city are expected to recover about 6 MLD from leaking pipes by the end of 2026, and a total of 10 MLD from 2026 to 2027.

MPIW is also counting on new groundwater wells in Cabatuan and Santa Barbara, which are expected to add at least 8 to 10 MLD to the supply.

Based on its 2024 experience, MPIW expects the reduction in water supply to be felt from around February to June.

Berba said the additional sources, once in place, could offset the effects of El Niño if the dry spell lasts less than three months.

“It’s just enough. Once January or February comes, we can already have an offset. We already have supply augmentation coming from these projects. Hopefully, the reduction will not be higher than 25 or 26 MLD, the same as in 2024, because we can already fill that gap through our augmentation,” Berba said.

Asked whether the measures would be enough against the projected super El Niño, Berba said the impact would depend on how long the phenomenon persists.

“If it is prolonged, we cannot say that it will not be felt that much. In 2024, we only felt it for three months, from February to April. This January, there is already a forecast that a very strong El Niño may manifest. Hopefully, it will not last for more than three months because we can no longer determine the effect on our surface water sources if it lasts longer than three months,” he said.

“At least if it lasts for three months, we can still manage. We may not feel the effects yet, but if it lasts for more than three months, that is still unknown to us,” Berba added.

Supply scenarios

Jedd Allen Roxas, head of MPIW’s Operations Division, said the utility has prepared supply-management scenarios based on available water supply.

At 80 MLD, or normal operations, consumers would receive an average of 14 to 18 hours of supply per day.

Under this scenario, most MPIW service areas would maintain stable supply, with limited rotational scheduling in select areas and minimal tanker support for areas at the far end of the distribution system.

As of Friday, MPIW said it maintains stable supply.

If supply drops to 70 MLD, consumers would receive an average of 10 to 14 hours of supply per day.

Rotational scheduling would expand to more service areas, more zones would shift to limited-hour supply, and tanker support would increase.

At 60 MLD, MPIW would enter critical supply management, with an average of six to 10 hours of supply per day.

More areas would shift to rotational supply, service hours would be reduced, and dependence on water tankers would increase.

At 50 MLD, the worst-case scenario, consumers could receive an average of zero to six hours of supply per day.

Most affected areas would operate under strict rotational scheduling, more areas would experience low pressure or no water, and tanker deployment would increase.

“We anticipate that the water supply could be between 50 and 60 MLD, but the situation could be significantly worse. We are monitoring the impact on our water supply,” Roxas said.

Roxas said MPIW would intensify water-tanker operations to ease the impact of rotational supply.

MPIW has 20 water tankers, with 16 more to be added ahead of El Niño.

It also operates nine tanker-refilling stations.