COVID spread in WV further slows down

By Joseph B.A. Marzan

The Department of Health-Western Visayas Center for Health Development (DOH-WV CHD) said Monday that the region’s risk rating for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) deescalated to ‘Moderate’ as infections slowed down in some former high-risk areas.

DOH-WV CHD Non-communicable Diseases Program Head Dr. Bea Camille Fillaro-Natalaray presented the latest COVID-19 situation and vaccination report in the latest edition of the online series Isyung Bakuna.

As of June 27, Western Visayas logged 64,529 COVID-19 cases (11,708 active, 51,340 recovered, and 1,462 dead), with an average of 616 new cases per day in June 2021.

The ‘Moderate’ classification was based on the DOH’s Community Quarantine Decision Framework (CQDF), which indicated that as of June 27, 2021, the region’s most recent 2-Week Growth Rate (2WGR) is at ‘Low’ and Average Daily Attack Rate (ADAR) at ‘Moderate’.

The region’s 2WGR, which refers to the rate of growth of cases in an area over a 14-day period, slowed down to –25 percent in the last 14 days, from 44.48 percent in the last 28 days.

The region’s ADAR, which refers to the number of cases in an area per 100,000 population over a 14-day period, also decreased to 6.23 in the last 14 days, from 8.33 in the last 28 days.

Broken down per area and based on their respective 2WGRs and ADARs, the provinces of Antique, Capiz, Iloilo, and Negros Occidental are at ‘Low’ risk, while Aklan, Guimaras, Bacolod City, and Iloilo City are under ‘Moderate’ risk.

This would also be the first time in three weeks that the risk classifications of Bacolod and Iloilo Cities were downgraded to Moderate from High since the DOH-WV CHD report on June 5.

Guimaras posted the highest 2WGR at 0 percent (from 130.95 percent) and is the only area in Western Visayas to have a ‘Moderate’ 2WGR.

The areas with Low 2WGR are Antique (06 percent from 13.91 percent), Aklan (-8 percent from 152.14 percent), Negros Occidental (-12 percent from 7.24 percent), Iloilo province (-16 percent from 65.61 percent), Iloilo City (-36 percent from 40.73 percent), Bacolod City (-41 percent from 58.99 percent), and Capiz (-44 percent from 18.13 percent).

As to the ADAR, Iloilo City still has the highest but with significant decrease (15.51 from 24.12). Bacolod City (13.36 from 22.51), Aklan (10.35 to 9.56), and Guimaras (remained at 7.41) also in High classification.

The provinces of Iloilo province (5.75 from 6.88), Capiz (3.93 from 6.99), Negros Occidental (3.89 from 4.42), and Antique (3.72 from 3.98) are in ‘Moderate’ ADAR classification after posting decreases in the numbers.

The DOH uses the Community Quarantine Decision Framework (CDQF) to equate the ADAR and 2WGR to determine the over-all risk rating.

A cross between a ‘High’ 2WGR with a ‘High’ ADAR is considered ‘Critical; with ‘Moderate’ ADAR equals to ‘High’; and with ‘Low’ ADAR equals to ‘Moderate’.

‘Medium’ 2WGR crossing with ‘High’ ADAR would mean a ‘High’ risk rating; with ‘Medium’ ADAR leads to ‘Moderate’ rating; and a ‘Low’ ADAR to a ‘Low’ rating.

‘Low’ 2WGR areas with ‘High’ ADAR are considered ‘Moderate’; while ‘Medium’ ADAR would be ‘Low’ risk, and ‘Low’ would mean ‘Minimal’ risk.

The region’s Health Care Utilization Rate (HCUR), which refers to the numbers of beds and mechanical ventilators dedicated to COVID patients that have been used, also decreased to 63.55 percent on June 27, from 64.19 percent in June 13.

Iloilo City still has the highest HCUR in the region (81.39 percent), followed by Capiz (71.43 percent), Bacolod City (66.01 percent), Guimaras (58.49 percent), Iloilo province (57.34 percent), Aklan (51.23 percent), and Negros Occidental (47.97 percent).

Together, the 2WGR, ADAR, and HCUR are used by the national government to determine an area’s community quarantine status. Local government units (LGUs) also craft and revise COVID-19 response policies based on these parameters.

The region’s Case Fatality Rate (CFR), which refers to the rate of COVID-19 deaths, remained at 2.27 percent as on June 20, still higher than the National CFR (1.74 percent) and the Global CFR (2.16 percent).

Capiz has the highest CFR with 2.92 percent, followed by Antique (2.86 percent), Iloilo City (2.58 percent), Iloilo province (2.51 percent), Bacolod City (2.36 percent), Guimaras (1.91 percent), Aklan (1.82 percent), and Negros Occidental (1.76 percent).

Despite the decreases in other parameters, the region’s testing positivity rate continued to increase to 8.4 percent as of June 27, compared to June 20 (8.0 percent) June 13 (7.7 percent) and June 5 (7.3 percent).

Natalaray reiterated the DOH-WV CHD’s position that an increased positivity rate may be an indication of increased transmission of COVID-19 in the region.

As to the presence of foreign COVID-19 variants, she said they sent 42 specimens to the Philippine Genome Center in Quezon City this month for sequencing, but the results have yet to be released.