COVID cases continue uptrend in four WV areas

By Joseph B.A. Marzan

 

Four areas in Region 6 continue to report an uptick in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases, according to the Department of Health-Western Visayas Center for Health Development (DOH-WV CHD) on Monday.

DOH-WV CHD Medical Officer IV Dr. Ma. Jocelyn Te gave the weekly update on the COVID-19 situation in the region in the regular online series “Isyung Bakuna.”

Their data showed that as of May 9, 2021, an average of 288 new cases per day was reported in May, higher than April’s daily average of 261, but lower than the May 2020 daily average at 377.

Te said that while the region’s combined factor rates indicated that it remains under the ‘Low Risk’ classification, they saw continued rise in cases in Aklan, Bacolod City, Capiz, and Iloilo City.

Overall, these areas are still in the “Moderate” column, based on the 2-Week Growth Rate (2WGR), Average Daily Attack Rate (ADAR), and the Health Care Utilization Rate (HCUR).

Iloilo City posted the highest rise in 2WGR (which refers to the volume of new cases reported daily over a two-week period) rising from -9.20 percent in the past 3 to 4 weeks, to 76 percent in the last 1 to 2 weeks.

Aklan rose from -13.37 percent to 24 percent.

Capiz and Bacolod City, however, posted decreases in 2WGR, with the former sliding from 77.86 percent to 13 percent, while the latter from 65.53 percent to -12 percent.

Antique showed increase in 2WGR, from -50.21 percent to -33 percent, but still remains in the green or safe column.

The remaining areas of the region trended to lower 2WGR, including Guimaras (62.50 percent to -15 percent), Iloilo province (24.91 percent to -38 percent), and Negros Occidental (5.50 percent to -4 percent).

While there was wiggle room in the 2WGR, the ADAR (which refers to the percentage of an at-risk population that contracts a disease during a specified time interval) is where the alarming numbers lie.

Based on the same data set, Iloilo City’s ADAR increased the most, from 2.36 in the past 3 to 4 weeks to 4.15 in the last 1 to 2 weeks, but still in the “Moderate” column.

Aklan’s and Capiz’s ADARs also increased, from 2.05 to 2.54, and from 2.05 to 2.31, respectively, while remaining in the Moderate classification.

While Bacolod City’s ADAR did go down, from 9.47 to 8.35, it remains in the red with the highest ADAR in the region.

The remaining areas’ ADAR decreased, such as Antique (2.80 to 1.87), Guimaras (0.50 to 0.42), Iloilo province (1.23 to 0.76), and Negros Occidental (4.94 to 4.73).

Guimaras remained, and Iloilo province moved downward, to the “Minimal” column, while Antique and Negros Occidental both stayed in “Low” classification.

The region’s HCUR (which pertains to the rate of utilization of Intensive Care Unit (ICU), COVID-19 ward, and Isolation Beds, as well as the utilization of Mechanical Ventilators) rose to 39.63 percent.

The data includes 40.61 percent of total dedicated beds and 25 percent of Mechanical Ventilators utilized.

This is still considered as “Low”, Dr. Te said, but this is still an increase from the 38.12 percent according to their data on May 2.

Based on the overall HCUR, only Guimaras has more than half of its beds utilized, with 90.91 percent, with 10 of its 11 total beds, which are all isolation beds, already utilized.

The island province has a 0 percent Mechanical Ventilation utilization rate, which meant that its bed utilization rate is the same as its HCUR.

As to the over-all HCUR, Bacolod City is at 47.89 percent, followed by Negros Occidental (41.61 percent), Iloilo City (40.05 percent), Capiz (39.39 percent), Iloilo province (37.64 percent), Antique (36. 89 percent), and Aklan (15.87 percent).

Bacolod City is also second in bed use at 48.33 percent, followed by Negros Occidental (42.47 percent), Iloilo City (42.30 percent), Capiz (39.34 percent), Iloilo province (37.85 percent), Antique (37.82 percent), and Aklan (17.86 percent).

The rest of the region is in the green for Mechanical Ventilation use, with Capiz posting 40 percent utilization rate, followed by Bacolod City (43.75 percent), and Iloilo City (22.22 percent).

Western Visayas’ current 2WGR (-5 percent), ADAR (3.19), and HCUR (39.63 percent) remained in the ‘Low’ column, but the numbers from these four areas have made them a “cause of concern”, which would call for stricter monitoring, according to Dr. Te.

Te said that while the number of cases in the national level has been decreasing, the rise in cases in the four Region 6 areas and the slow decrease in other areas should prod the public to avoid being complacent.

“Nationally, the number of cases is decreasing, the rate is slower than the previous weeks as the National Capital Region shows some improvements. However, for Western Visayas, though there is a slow decrease in some areas, some areas showed moderate risk – Aklan, Capiz, Bacolod City, and Iloilo City. Generally [HCUR] remains low but some areas showed moderate to high use of COVID wards and ICU beds. Positivity rate continues to increase which may indicated increased local transmission, which is why shouldn’t be complacent,” Te said.

She also reiterated the DOH-WV CHD’s previous recommendations:

– Ensure Prevention, Detection, Isolation, Treatment, and Recovery (PDITR) strategies are implemented;

– Turn-around-time for contact tracing and isolation should be routinely monitored if targets are being met to trigger immediate action;

– Strengthen border control and ensure proper LGU handover; and

– As cases remain high, with some signs of slowing down in growth, the DOH-WV CHD should continue to further intensify its efforts in messaging in promoting adherence to MPHS and addressing vaccine hesitancy.