Climate-smart farming could cut emissions 18%, PIDS says

MANILA — Combining climate adaptation with targeted emissions-reduction measures could cut projected greenhouse gas emissions from Philippine agriculture by 18% from 2025 to 2045 while helping farms become more resilient and productive, according to a Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) study.

The findings underscore a policy trade-off facing the farm sector: investments that protect agricultural production from climate shocks can stimulate economic activity but may also raise emissions unless they are paired with measures that curb methane, nitrous oxide, and other greenhouse gases.

For farmers and consumers, the challenge is to preserve food production and livelihoods without worsening the climate risks that already inflict heavy losses on agriculture.

The study, “Culprit and Victim: Scenarios for Philippine Agriculture amidst Climate Change,” was written by PIDS Senior Research Fellow Roehlano Briones and former PIDS Supervising Research Specialist Ivory Myka Galang.

It examined how Philippine agriculture could respond to climate change under three pathways: continuation of current trends, stronger adaptation, and a combination of adaptation and mitigation.

Using a computable general equilibrium model, the researchers assessed the possible effects of the three scenarios on agricultural productivity, consumption, and greenhouse gas emissions.

The projection period for the policy scenarios runs from 2025 to 2045.

Under the combined adaptation-and-mitigation scenario, agricultural greenhouse gas emissions are projected to decline by 18% over the 2025–2045 period.

The reduction comes from adding measures such as carbon sequestration, improved manure management, and emissions-reducing technologies to investments that help farms cope with climate change.

Adaptation alone could still deliver economic gains, with government spending on climate adaptation projected to help agricultural gross value added grow 0.38 percentage points faster.

The researchers cautioned, however, that those gains may not be distributed evenly across agricultural subsectors.

The same productivity gains could also increase the sector’s environmental footprint if adaptation is pursued without mitigation.

Agricultural greenhouse gas emissions are projected to rise by 24% under the reference scenario and by 29% under the adaptation scenario as higher productivity leads to increased agricultural activity.

The findings illustrate agriculture’s dual role in the climate crisis because the sector is both highly exposed to extreme weather and a major source of emissions.

Agriculture accounts for about 23% of Philippine greenhouse gas emissions while suffering an average of PHP 44 billion in property damage from natural disasters annually from 2012 to 2022.

Those agricultural losses accounted for 60% of the country’s disaster-related property damage over the period.

The study noted that the Philippines is expected to experience higher temperatures and more variable rainfall as the climate changes.

Climate projections comparing 2020 and 2050 under a medium-range emissions scenario show projected warming across the country and shifts in rainfall patterns that vary by season and location.

Improved water management in rice fields emerged as one of the most promising ways to reduce agricultural emissions without sacrificing production.

The study highlighted Alternate Wetting and Drying, or AWD, which periodically allows rice paddies to dry instead of keeping them continuously flooded.

The researchers modeled a 40% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from rice production through AWD.

The technique can reduce methane released from flooded paddies while conserving water without compromising rice yields when properly implemented.

Rice cultivation is particularly important because the study identified it as the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions from Philippine agriculture.

Enteric fermentation from livestock ranked next, followed by emissions associated with manure management.

Livestock waste therefore represents another area where emissions can be cut while creating additional economic value.

Improved manure management, including the use of biogas digesters, can reduce methane emissions while converting animal waste into a potential source of energy.

The researchers described AWD and improved livestock waste management as among the cost-effective options available to the agriculture sector.

Their findings suggest that directing climate investments toward rice and livestock could provide emissions reductions while protecting farm productivity.

The study called for stronger climate adaptation measures across crops, livestock, and fisheries, together with better information on where agricultural emissions originate.

It also recommended expanding support for technologies that reduce emissions without undermining farm output.

Support for small farmers will be particularly important because adopting climate-resilient and low-emission technologies can require new equipment, knowledge, financing, or changes in production practices.

The researchers said assistance should be designed so climate action does not weaken agricultural competitiveness or threaten food security.

Although Philippine agriculture has not committed to an unconditional emissions-reduction target, the study said an estimated 211 million metric tons of carbon dioxide-equivalent reductions could be achieved through a range of policies and measures.

Those measures include AWD in rice fields, renewable energy, improved livestock manure management, and precision agriculture.

The study ultimately argues that adaptation and mitigation should be treated as complementary rather than competing priorities.

Pairing investments that help farmers withstand climate shocks with technologies that lower emissions could allow Philippine agriculture to pursue growth while becoming more resilient, productive, and environmentally sustainable.