Can we trust China?

By: Edgar Mana-ay

IN A FAMILY, it is conventional wisdom that parents remind their marriageable children to carefully observe the partner they intend to marry. The children are further admonished to take time and be watchful not only the behavior but even the achievements of a prospective partner in life.

The same goes for our relations with China.  President Duterte had made the regrettable pivot to China for aids, arms, and cultural ties despite evidence of being a bully, dropping the ever-faithful U.S. as an ally and business partner for almost a hundred years.

For the past 10 years, we have observed the unfolding of the true character of China, how it behaves in the international arena showing outright bullying of claimant countries in the South China Sea (SCS). In my two previous articles on China, this writer was able to enumerate outright bullying acts of China such as:

-defying the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague ruling that favors the Philippines,

-occupying Scarborough Shoals which is within the 200 nautical miles (nm) Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of the Philippines as provided for by the UNCLOS (United Nations Convention on the Laws of the Seas), then prohibiting Filipino fishermen from fishing in his own territory, and

-enlarging seven Philippine reefs by reclamation process to establish a military garrison.

But the most preposterous (garapal) of all is the maritime claim of China on almost 90 percent of the South China Sea through its infamous nine-dash line overlapping the 200-nautical miles Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of all nations in the SCS as provided by UNCLOS.

This claim is without any legal, historic or geographic merit, just NINE strokes of dashed lines to encircle the entire South China Sea and announcing to the world that henceforth “this is mine!”, reminiscent of the ISIS claim of a swath of land in Iraq and Syria as its caliphate.

This bully style is exemplified in the ominous statement of former Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi when he said: “China is a big country and other countries are small countries, and that’s just a fact!” The true bully and wicked character of China is further unfolded in the recent trade war with the US, its fracas with the NBA, and the Hong Kong protestors for democracy.

This comes on the heels of a movement by South East Asia countries to accelerate a meaningful Code of Conduct in the disputed SCS. Of course, China had issued a statement committing itself to abide by whatever the majority of ASEAN countries will craft. However, China’s actions speak louder than its voice, so that all ASEAN countries are now skeptical of China’s verbal commitment to negotiate for an effective Code of Conduct is really serious.

Well, only the event will teach us in its hour, but at this point in time nobody believes that China will abide with whatever agreement the ASEAN countries will finalize the Code of Conduct on South China Sea. But the most fatal danger of all is:  if the Code of Conduct is approved and the nine-dash line of China is NOT disenfranchised before it takes effect, then it WILL JUST LEGITIMIZE CHINA’S UNLAWFUL MARITIME CLAIMS.

David Stilwell, US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific affairs, expressed doubts over China’s avowed commitment to peaceful diplomacy. He said: “While claiming that they are committed to peaceful diplomacy, the reality is that Chinese leaders – through the PLA (People’s Liberation Army), navy, law enforcement agencies such as Coast Guards, and maritime militia disguised as fishermen in steel-hulled boats – continue to intimidate such as the ramming of a Filipino fishing vessel and intimidating offshore drilling in Vietnam and Malaysia.”

But China, as the second-largest economy in the world, also has its inherent weaknesses which the Asean countries, if they unite, can exploit to their advantage. While China is self-sufficient on its coal resources, it has to import 80% of its liquid energy requirements, half of which is supplied by ASEAN countries. Its economy is export-oriented.

Reducing the purchase of made in China products would surely take a heavy toll on its economy. The recent tit-for-tat trade war with the United States had caused a tremendous slow down of its economy causing a reduced Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to below the 6% target. Its export has shrunk 3.2%, imports, a barometer of domestic demand has also contracted by 8.5%.

Among the anecdotal evidence of economic trouble: Samsung shut down its last Mobile Phone factory last month at the same time that Pang Da Auto Trade, the country’s largest car dealer declared bankruptcy.

We cannot really fathom the mystery as to why DU30 is afraid to stand up to China especially in the West Philippine Sea issue and then waltzing with China on oil and gas exploration at our Recto Bank despite the inexperience of China on this type of work. Even if China is a giant nation, just like the Biblical characters of Goliath or Samson, it has also many inherent weaknesses as enumerated above. The ASEAN nations can unite and put up a common stand against China.

We should convince our President to cut the umbilical cord that he made to connect us to China while there is time because, by its deeds and movements, China can never be trusted as a friend and as a business partner. In fact as of now, little has come out of the $45 billion promised investment by China when DU30 twice visited Beijing, posing a challenge to DU30 as he tries to use Chinese money to build infrastructures, create jobs in order to build his legacy. We refer to Alfred Adler who said: “Trust only movement. Life happens at the level of events, not words. Trust only movement and action.”