Anything is possible for Treñas except underestimating Baronda

By Alex P. Vidal

“That’s something I’ve struggled with my entire life—people underestimating me.” —Jurnee Smollett-Bell

IF Ilonggos will think Iloilo City Mayor Geronimo “Jerry” Treñas isn’t getting younger anymore and has been dealing with type 2 diabetes aside from his sinus surgery last month, some of them have good reason to surmise there could be some semblance of truth to scuttlebutt he might consider running for congress instead of reelection.

Some of them have enough leverage to theorize Treñas may still be wishing to continue holding an elective office but not necessarily in City Hall.

But, so as not to disabuse their suspicious minds, the most logical thing to do in the absence of admission and confirmation from the city mayor himself, is to wait until October 1-8, 2024, the only dates given by the Commission on Elections (Comelec) for all aspirants to file their certificates of candidacy (Coc).

Type 2 diabetes, by the way, occurs when the pancreas doesn’t produce enough insulin to maintain a normal blood glucose level, or the body is unable to use the insulin that is produced.

It may not be a life-threatening situation for Treñas, who claimed last week he was in top shape and “ready to fight in 2025” (meaning ready to seek another elective office in the midterm elections). So there’s no cause for alarm, at least not yet.

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The job of city mayor is more strenuous and physically and mentally toilsome compared to the job of congressman—a representative who isn’t bound by law to report everyday in the House of Representatives at the Batasan Complex in Quezon City.

We all know Treñas has been pushing for his executive assistant and daughter, Raisa or Mrs. Raisa Treñas-Chu, to run for the city’s lone congressional district against his estranged political ally, incumbent Rep. Julienne “Jamjam” Baronda.

These past months, or almost the entire 2024, Treñas has been consolidating his political forces—both the wherewithal and organization—and accelerated the armada for a possible all-out assault against Baronda to ensure the daughter’s plain sailing victory when the goings get tough.

And that’s only the Plan B. We all know Plan A was over. Plan A had been uncorked as early as March when Treñas, Raisa, and Uswag Partylist Rep. Jojo Ang faced the reporters to announce Raisa’s plan to run for congress but without a declaration of war yet versus Baronda.

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At that time, Treñas wanted to send a curt message he was supporting Raisa in place of Baronda, who supposedly had agreed to give way to the Treñas daughter after a terse but brief hello-and-goodbye meeting between Treñas and Baronda.

Alas, as soon as the Raisa-New-Political-Kid-In-Town hysteric spread like prairie fire, Baronda wasted no time and let the cat out of the bag: she never agreed to say “no mas, no mas” (no more).

In fact, her campaign said, Baronda was pushing through with her reelection bid in 2025 and was willing to pursue her political Shangri-La even without her hitherto patron Treñas.

This made the situation complicated for Treñas, who had to double the gas in order for the rocket launcher that will prop up daughter Raisa’s public acceptability and awareness level go up fast and out of harm’s way.

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But there’s a caveat. The surveys these past months commissioned by different parties have been very difficult to bear for the city mayor and daughter to boot.

It appeared Baronda would let Raisa eat a considerable amount of dust if the elections were held yesterday or even anytime soon.

A seasoned politician, Treñas is someone we know since time immemorial who believes in surveys or the tacit political handwritings on the wall.

Having suffered some of the most painful political setbacks in the past, the city mayor is not a denial king when it comes to authentic and credible pre-election synopsis and overview.

If he fears or suspects that Raisa may be away by a mile or two from the winning column, will a father risk the future of a politically promising daughter?

If a father believes or thinks he and no one else can “rescue” the situation and avert a potential catastrophe for the entire political clan, will he not make a drastic but potentially suicidal move to put his own body away from the well-secured phalanx and risk going down but saving his own daughter’s interest?

To make the long story short, if Treñas decides to apply a Solomonic solution to a very critical puzzle, he should be prepared to lose against Baronda once he opted to file his CoC for congressman but secured the City Hall if Raisa filed her CoC for city mayor and won.

There is also a chance he could dethrone Baronda as a congressional candidate and Raisa completing the “grand slam” by taking by storm the City Hall unmolested.

Anything is always possible except underestimating “silent” Baronda.

(The author, who is now based in New York City, used to be the editor of two daily newspapers in Iloilo.—Ed)