WV remains ‘low risk’ amid COVID spike in some areas

By Joseph B.A. Marzan

 

The Department of Health-Western Visayas Center for Health Development (DOH-WV CHD) on Monday said Region 6 remains in the “Low Risk” column despite the noted rise in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in some areas.

In the regular online series “Isyung Bakuna”, Dr. Bea Camille Fillaro-Natalaray, Medical Officer V of the DOH-WV CHD, provided the weekly update on the region’s COVID-19 situation and the state of vaccination.

Based on DOH-WV CHD’s data as of May 1, 2021 the entire Western Visayas was under the ‘Low Risk’ classification.

This, despite the region reporting 1,077 new cases over the first three days of May (395 on May 1, 348 on May 2, and 334 on May 3), DOH-6 data indicated.

The DOH-WV CHD’s COVID-19 situationer data on Monday also explicitly indicated a recent uptrend in COVID-19 cases in Bacolod City, Iloilo City, and Capiz.

The low classification and trends were based on three factors: the two-week growth rate (2WGR), Average Daily Attack Rate (ADAR), and Healthcare Utilization Rate (HCUR).

Breaking down the region’s overall classification, only Bacolod City is in the “High Risk” classification, followed by Iloilo City and Capiz (Moderate), Negros Occidental, Antiques, and Aklan (Low), and Guimaras and Iloilo province (Minimal).

The 2WGR, which refers to the volume of cases reported every two weeks, went down by 23 percent regionwide as of May 2.

Most areas of the region did report downtrends, Antique reporting the highest with a 63 percent downtrend in the past 2 weeks, compared to a 69.73 percent uptick in the previous 3-4 weeks.

Capiz reported a -40 percent downtrend, Iloilo province (-36 percent), Negros Occidental (-29 percent), and Aklan (-13 percent).

The remaining areas recorded rises in their 2WGRs and are considered as “moderate”, such as Bacolod City (14 percent), Iloilo City (11 percent), and Capiz (7 percent).

The region’s ADAR, which is the average rate of at-risk population per 100,000 that contracted COVID-19 every two weeks, is at 2.91, still at the “Low” column after going down from 3.78 in the past 3 to 4 weeks.

Only Bacolod City has the “High” ADAR classification at 8.30, up from 7.30 in the past 3 to 4 weeks.

Guimaras (0.34) and Iloilo province (0.79) have the lowest ADARs in the region, Aklan (1.87), Antique (1.91), and Negros Occidental (4.41) are in the low column, while Iloilo City (2.66) and Capiz (1.90) are in the moderate column.

Notably, the ADAR also matches the over-all risk classification of all the areas.

The HUCR pertains to the rate of utilization of Intensive Care Unit (ICU), COVID-19 ward, and Isolation Beds, as well as the utilization of Mechanical Ventilators.

The region’s HCUR, despite consistently rising in the past few weeks, is still in the “Low Risk” category at 38.12 percent, 39.40 percent of beds, and 14.41 percent of mechanical ventilators utilized.

All areas in the region are also in the low column for HCUR, the highest being Guimaras (54.55 percent), followed by Bacolod City (49.70 percent), Negros Occidental (42.81 percent), Antique (41.73 percent), Iloilo province (36.13 percent), Iloilo City (35.63 percent), Capiz (25.95 percent), and Aklan (17.14 percent).

Almost all areas are notably not using mechanical ventilators, the only exceptions being Bacolod City (35.48 percent utilization), Capiz (11.11 percent), and Iloilo City (8.70 percent) using them.

Despite these, the DOH-WV CHD believes that there may be an increase in local transmission in the region based on the positivity rate, which is at 6 percent, with 37,443 testing positive for COVID-19 from 624,300 tests conducted.

Fillaro-Natalaray also discussed DOH-WV CHD’s recommendations, which include the following:

– Ensure Prevent-Detect-Isolate-Treat-Recover (PDITR) strategies are implemented and monitored;

– Turnaround time for contact tracing and isolation should be routinely monitored if targets are being met to trigger immediate action;

– Strengthen border control and ensure proper local government unit (LGU) handover; and

– Continuing and further intensifying efforts and messaging in promoting adherence to minimum public health standards and addressing vaccine hesitancy.

As to rise in local transmission, Fillaro-Natalaray hinted to illegal public gatherings like cockfights in Negros Occidental and Antique, as possible causes.

She said local government units (LGUs) must stress the need of observing minimum public health standards as well as the continuation of good health practices at home and in public.

As to the quarantine classification, she said that there was still no indication of a change in the quarantine status, unless stated by the national Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases (IATF-MEID).

She added that the LGUs may still be able to impose localized lockdowns.