Wishful thinking

By Artchil B. Fernandez

 

“Panalo na tayo, we beat UP projection po. We beat it, so congratulations Philippines, let’s do it again in July.” A jubilant and gleeful Harry Roque, the presidential spokesperson made the declaration this week. Roque’s ecstatic announcement made it appear the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic has been won or the country is winning over the plague. How did Roque come up with the idea that the Philippines is doing well in the battle against COVID-19? What is the basis of his astounding claim?

Last month, researchers from the University of the Philippines projected that cases of COVID-19 in the country will reach 40,000 by the end of June. Since the number of infected Filipinos of the virus did not reach 40,000 by June 30, Roque is thrilled. In a press conference this week, he proudly told the nation that with UP’s projection failing to become a reality, he concludes that the country is winning if not have won the fight with the pandemic.

Is Roque correct? Does the Philippines have the upper hand in the battle to contain and control the spread of COVID-19? Only a closer examination and deeper analysis of the data validate Roque’s fabulous claim.

A quick glance of the figure seems to support Roque’s pronouncement. True, by June 30, there are less than 40,000 cases of COVID-19 in the country. It must be noted that UP researchers projected or forecasted the possible number of cases at the end of the month. They did not predict a la Nostradamus but made a projection. Making projection is a scientifically accepted practice among scientists and researchers. Projections serve as a guide and basis of policymaking and intervention programs.

Roque, however, twisted the practice of projection-making and made the actualization of the projected figure (40,000) as the barometer of success or failure in the battle against COVID-19. If the number is equal or exceeds the projection, the fight is lost and if it is less than the forecasted figure, the effort against the pandemic is a success. Roque mangled the reading and interpretation of the facts so he can trumpet before the whole world that the administration is doing very well in handling the pandemic. This is wishful thinking for the data is actually showing an alarming and scary reality.

By June 30, the number of cases of COVID-19 in the country is 37,514. It is not 40,000 but the figure is near the projected cases. The projection of UP researchers is 93.8 percent accurate. It may not be 100 percent but close enough. The most telling aspect of the data is, the number of COVID-19 cases in the country continues to rise and this is the most chilling aspect of the trend.

It is even debatable if UP researchers’ projection is only 93.8 percent accurate. The accuracy of the number of COVID-19 cases reported by the Department of Health (DoH) is disputed. There are a huge number of backlogs in the processing of the test done.   There is no mass testing conducted among the population. As of now, the country is blind to the real picture of the extent and scope of infection among Filipinos in the absence of testing a representative portion of the population.

Declaring victory at this point in the fight against COVID-19 is not only premature but wishful thinking. In the absence of an accurate picture of infection in the country, it is careless on the part of the administration to brag about success.

What is going on in Cebu City should be the focus of attention instead of looking at the projection of UP researchers if one has to get a glimpse of the real situation of the pandemic in the country. The Cebu City situation is instructive of the danger each town, city , and province in the country faces and the seriousness of the health crisis.

Cebu City, aside from Metro Manila is a major hot-spot of the COVID-19 pandemic in the country at present. As of June 30, there are 5,494 cases of COVID-19 in Cebu City, exceeding that of Quezon City, the previous record holder of the city with the highest number of cases. The positive rate in Cebu City is at 32.8 percent, far, far higher than the 7.2 percent of Metro Manila. The national positive rate is 6.8 percent. The ICU occupancy rate for COVID-19 cases in Cebu City is now at 57 percent the highest nationwide. Hospitals in Cebu City are now overwhelmed and health workers there are experiencing fatigue and exhaustion in dealing with the rising number of cases.

Truth is the Philippines is not winning the fight against the pandemic with the growing rate of infection and the still-rising number of cases. In fact, the World Health Organization (WHO) in a recent report said the Philippines has the fastest rise of COVID-19 cases in Western Pacific. This grim report may have prompted Roque to declare victory if only to obscure the gloomy situation in the country.

In terms of number of dead per million, the Philippines has the highest rate in Southeast Asia at 11.1. Following the country is Indonesia with 9.6 dead/million and third is Brunei with 6.9.

The Philippines and the world are not yet out of the woods in the current plague ravaging the world. John Hopkins University’s latest data show there are now 10,512,383 cases of COVID-19 globally with 512,334 dead. This week, Western Visayas recorded its highest cases in a day, with 33 people tested positive of the virus. As of this writing, there are 307 cases of COVID-19 in Region VI. These figures indicate that the pandemic is far from over, locally, and globally.

Instead of raising false hope and deceiving the people, it would have been better if the Du30 administration is truthful about the real picture of the pandemic in the country. But for an administration whose only recourse to deal with the health crisis is militarist approach (sending Special Action Forces to Cebu City to deal with the virus instead of health experts) self-deception is the only option to cover-up its incompetence.