WIDER, LONGER BROWNOUTS: Visayas power crisis deepens, PEDC plant return pushed to October

By Rjay Zuriaga Castor and Francis Allan L. Angelo

ILOILO CITY — The power supply deficit in the Visayas has widened to about 400 megawatts (MW) this week, raising the likelihood of longer and wider rotational brownouts across the region.

The worsening supply situation has prompted MORE Electric and Power Corp. (MORE Power), the distribution utility of Iloilo City, to advise consumers to prepare whenever the National Grid Corp. of the Philippines (NGCP) raises yellow or red alerts.

A yellow alert is raised when the grid’s operating reserves fall below the required contingency level. A red alert means available supply is no longer enough to cover demand plus reserves, the point at which rotating outages typically follow.

Engr. Dave Jabatan, assistant manager of MORE Power’s system planning division, said the 400-MW deficiency recorded in the Visayas grid this week was significantly higher than the usual shortfall of 100 to 200 MW.

“The deficiency we have seen in the Visayas grid this week has reached 400 MW,” Jabatan said on Friday, Sept. 11.

He said the situation had been more manageable when the Visayas could draw additional power from the Mindanao grid, which typically exported 100 to 200 MW to cover shortfalls in the region.

“But now, unfortunately, the conditions have become very critical and much worse,” Jabatan said.

He said consumers could already see the deterioration in NGCP’s manual load dropping (MLD), which has been affecting wider areas for longer stretches.

Manual load dropping is the controlled reduction of electricity supply to portions of the distribution system, used to protect the grid from a more serious imbalance.

“The consumers can observe that the situation is worsening — it is either the areas affected by manual load dropping are getting longer or wider because of the big deficiency in the Visayas grid,” he said.

Jabatan said the Visayas could potentially have received around 450 MW from Mindanao under normal circumstances, the full rated capacity of the Mindanao-Visayas Interconnection Project.

“That 450 MW could have significantly reduced our deficiency and shortened the implementation of manual load dropping,” he said.

He also pointed to transmission constraints that limit the amount of power that can be delivered to the Visayas from other parts of the grid.

Prepare during power alerts

With the supply situation continuing to worsen, Jabatan urged consumers to prepare for possible rotational brownouts whenever NGCP raises yellow or red alerts, noting that the actual timing of MLD can be difficult to predict.

He said there are instances when NGCP advises that MLD may be carried out, prompting MORE Power to warn consumers about possible rotational brownouts in affected areas.

However, the scheduled MLD sometimes does not push through if grid conditions improve.

He said the grid situation could be volatile because several factors affect power generation and demand.

“The changes happen all the time. But we would like to advise our customers to be safe. If you see that there is already a yellow or red alert, prepare already, regardless of what time it was posted, because the basis for actual MLD is the actual grid condition,” Jabatan explained.

Jabatan said MORE Power’s load dropping schedule depends largely on NGCP advisories, which can arrive only minutes before power is cut.

Of MORE Power’s 29 feeders in Iloilo City, about 21 to 23 experience interruptions on a typical day, Jabatan said.

He said feeders spared on one day could be included in the rotation the next.

“If 20 feeders are affected in one day, there is a bigger chance that you could still be affected the next day. That is how dire the situation is in the Visayas,” he said.

Jabatan stressed that MORE Power was not seeking to normalize the worsening power situation, noting that the shortage was a generation problem.

“We do not normalize this situation. We are cooperating with the DOE [Department of Energy] and other agencies to find ways for this not to happen again,” he said.

Plant restorations seen as quick fix

Jabatan said the current supply problem was largely beyond the control of distribution utilities such as MORE Power, and even of NGCP, as the fundamental issue lies in the availability of generation.

“This is beyond the control of a distribution utility like MORE Power. This is beyond NGCP. This goes back to the generation side — to the power plants. NGCP and the distribution utilities cannot deliver power if it is not there in the first place,” he said.

He said any improvement in the Visayas grid would depend largely on whether offline power plants could meet their target dates for returning to service.

“If they can return to service, hopefully it will address a large part of the deficiency in the Visayas and reduce or eliminate the implementation of MLD,” Jabatan said.

Department of Energy projections showed that several generating units in both the Visayas and Mindanao were scheduled to return to service in September and October.

In the Visayas, Therma Visayas Inc. (TVI) Unit 1, with a capacity of 169 MW, was expected to return to service on Sept. 15, while TVI Unit 2, also rated at 169 MW, had no indicative restoration date. Panay Energy Development Corp. (PEDC) Unit 3, with a capacity of 150 MW, was listed for an Oct. 3 return.

In Mindanao, GN Power Kauswagan (GNPK) Unit 2, with 138 MW, was expected to return on Sept. 20, while TSI Unit 1, with 150 MW, was expected to return on Sept. 19. GNPK Unit 3, with 138 MW, had no indicative restoration date.

“Personally, from the looks of it, until PEDC 3 can be restored in October, to set the expectations of our consumers, that seems to be the timeline we are waiting for,” Jabatan said.

PEDC Unit 3 return pushed to late October

The Visayas grid may have to endure several more weeks without one of Panay’s biggest generating units after PEDC found a significant circumferential crack in the previously repaired rotor shaft of its 150-MW Unit 3 in Iloilo City.

In a statement, PEDC said it was evaluating repair and replacement options and accelerating procurement of a permanent replacement shaft.

Preparations for an interim repair were also underway, with the company now targeting the last week of October for Unit 3’s return to service.

The revised timetable pushes the unit’s restoration well past the Oct. 3 date carried in Department of Energy projections.

“Safety comes first, but safety does not mean standing still. Our teams are moving with urgency to assess every viable option and identify the fastest responsible path to restore Unit 3,” said Arnel L. Santos, MGen Thermal president and chief executive officer.

The latest setback adds to a series of operating problems involving PEDC Unit 3 this year.

The unit shut down on May 6 before returning to operation on July 1.

It went offline again on Aug. 29 because of a problem involving its induced draft fan.

A subsequent inspection found the crack in the previously repaired rotor shaft, prompting a fresh technical assessment and the revised restoration timetable.

The prolonged loss of PEDC Unit 3 matters because the plant is one of the major generating facilities supplying Panay and the wider Visayas grid.

It was among the large unavailable units cited during recent red and yellow alerts in the Visayas, where multiple forced outages and derated plants have repeatedly cut available reserves.

On Sept. 12, the Visayas grid was again placed under red alert, with available capacity at 2,109 MW against peak demand of 2,346 MW, a shortfall of 237 MW.

A total of 1,052.4 MW was unavailable to the grid because of forced outages and plants operating at reduced capacity.

PEDC Unit 3, TVI Units 1 and 2 in Cebu, and limited power imports from Mindanao were among the major factors cited for the tight supply.

The repeated grid alerts have drawn concern because some have occurred even on weekends, when demand is generally lower than on business days.

For consumers, the continued absence of PEDC Unit 3 leaves the Visayas grid more vulnerable whenever another major generator trips or electricity imports are constrained, particularly during peak-demand periods.

PEDC said its other generating units, with a combined capacity of 167.4 MW, remained fully operational and in service.

The company operates a 278.4-MW coal-fired power plant in Iloilo City that primarily supplies Panay Island and selected areas in the Visayas.

MGen said the restoration of Unit 3 forms part of its broader effort to support the growing electricity requirements of the Visayas while it expands generation and battery storage projects in the region.