Why I believe in gagging the surveys

By Herbert Vego

NO doubt, published election surveys double as mind-conditioners to promote the top candidates for the May 12, 2025 senatorial race.  

For when the same names materialize in the actual election returns, expect an “I told you so” reaction from survey followers.

Are we so “bobo” that we would swallow hook, line and sinker the “magic 12” in the surveys.

Take note that party-list congressman/broadcaster Erwin Tulfo is consistently on top.

What has he done to deserve that?

Why has the Commission on Elections (Comelec) not resolved his deceptive citizenship status?

As embodied in Article IX-B of the Philippine Constitution, candidates for public office must be natural-born citizens of the Philippines. This ensures that elective public officials are inherently loyal to the country.

Let us recall that in January this year, the United States Embassy revealed that he is the same person using the name Erich Sylvester Tulfo, allegedly born in the US state of Hawaii on December 30, 1965 – hence, an American citizen.

He admitted having served in the United States Army from 1988 to 1992.

But the familiar Erwin Tulfo, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) office, was born on August 10, 1963 in Tacloban City.

Alin ang totoo, Kuya George Garcia?

Now, look at the Social Weather Stations’ (SWS) latest list of the “winnable” dozen if the election were held today: Erwin Tulfo, Christopher “Bong” Go, Lito Lapid, Tito Sotto, Ben Tulfo, Ramon “Bong” Revilla, Jr., Pia Cayetano, Ping Lacson, Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa, Manny Pacquiao, Abby Binay and Willie Revillame.

Five of them – Go, Lapid, Revilla, Cayetano and Dela Rosa — are re-electionists who are close to former President Rodrigo Duterte and his daughter, Vice President Sara Duterte.

Lapid, Revilla and Cayetano could therefore be “Trojan horses” within President Marcos’ Alyansa Para sa Bagong Pilipinas coalition.

Only Go and Dela Rosa represent Duterte’s PDP-Laban party.

Three former senators – Sotto, Lacson and Lacson – are come-backing. They used to be identified with  the Dutertes, too.

Erwin Tulfo and Binay are “graduating” congressman and mayor, respectively.

Ben is a not-so-popular TV block-timer who speaks like an American.

The TV clown in the batch, Willie Revillame, is famous for giving away jackets in his game show.

For sure there are more deserving candidates than all of the above. But why are they not among the frontrunners?

It shocked me to hear Erwin Tulfo justify on TV why he and his brother Ben are both running for senators while brother Raffy is still sitting in the Senate.

“There is no implementing law against dynasty yet,” he said cockily. “So, let the people decide.”

He also said in a radio broadcast that eight pollsters had rated him No. 1.

Tulfo’s overconfidence makes us wonder why at least three of the growing number of surveyors — SWS, Pulse Asia and Octa Research – publish almost similar names in the “magic 12”. Do they survey the same respondents?

Or do they comprise a “syndicate” that connives to match the same results?

The political surveys remind us of the famous 1941 quotation from Joseph Goebbels, chief propagandist of Adolf Hitler: “Repeat a lie often enough and it becomes the truth.”

Presuming connivance between them and the Comelec, could it not lead to predetermined election results.

In our nation with more than 68 million voters, it is statistically impossible for more or less 2,000 survey respondents to mirror the will of the majority.

There used to be only two political survey firms, namely Social Weather Stations (SWS) and Pulse Asia, which are partly owned by overlapping stockholders, including – as “googled” — Felipe Miranda, Rosalinda T. Miranda, Gemino H. Abad and Mercedes R. Abad.

Surveying must have become so profitable that there are now  eight to ten of them that need to be convincing. But further competition could divide the spoils.

As cited by fellow columnist Alex Vidal in his column last Saturday, there are research groups now lobbying the Comelec to amend its Resolution No. 11117, which mandates that only pre-registered entities are authorized to conduct and publish election surveys.

It takes money to “subscribe” to surveys. The first time Senator Nancy Binay ran in 2013, she paid Pulse Asia P1 million for each of its six successive surveys, according to former congressman Toby Tiangco (Navotas City), who was then the spokesman of her party, the United Nationalist Alliance (UNA).

This is not to say, however, that it was that amount alone that made her place 5th in the 2013 senatorial race.

Could today’s senatorial candidates with no financial means afford survey “subscription”?