Why Duterte won’t suffer Trump’s fate

By Alex P. Vidal

 

“A politician thinks of the next election. A statesman, of the next generation.” – James Freeman Clarke

 

THE answer is very obvious: President Rodrigo R. Duterte can’t run for reelection under the constitution.

Elected in 2016, he’ll have to vacate Malacañang in 2022 (unless, of course, “unforeseen” events will interfere).

Philippine presidents have fixed six-year terms while U.S. presidents govern for four years and can seek reelection for another four years.

Could Mr. Duterte, who allegedly enjoyed a 91 percent public approval in the most recent survey, suffer Mr. Trump’s fate if he was allowed to run for reelection?

It depends.

The No. 1 reason put forward by election experts in America why 74-year-old Trump was trounced by 78-year-old President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr. was his poor handling of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

If COVID-19 was a central issue in the Philippines and Mr. Duterte played it down or refused to acknowledge it wreaked havoc on the lives of the Filipinos (or, like Mr. Trump, denied science, reject the suggestions of health authorities and refused to wear a mask), he might be “fired” (as Mr. Trump’s nemesis would always say after the November 3 election) by the Filipino voters assuming that he could or was running for reelection.

 

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As of this writing, there were 12,306,023 confirmed cases of coronavirus in the United States, per the most recent data from health officials. (Or 504,004 more than November 20 morning.)

There were 257,692 deaths in the United States from the virus so far. (Or 4,059 more than November 20 morning.)

The number of coronavirus tests that have been administered in the United States so far, according to researchers at The COVID Tracking Project was 179.34 million as of this writing.

Mr. Biden’s popular-vote lead over Mr. Trump stands at four percentage points, 51 percent to 47 percent—and it’s only going to grow once more of New York’s votes (finally) get counted, according to the NBC news.

This would give Mr. Biden the second-largest popular vote margin out of the 21st century’s six presidential elections, with only former President Barack Obama’s seven-point win in 2008 being greater, according to NBC news analysts Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Carrie Dann and Melissa Holzberg.

 

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When it comes to the Electoral College, the tally stands at Mr. Biden 306, Trump 232–which happens to be the exact same split as Mr. Trump’s 2016 win versus former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (but in reverse).

And Mr. Trump referred to that as a “massive landslide victory.”

Mr. Biden’s ahead by 154,000 votes in Michigan (greater than Mr. Trump’s 10,000-vote-winning margin there in 2016).

The President-elect is ahead by 81,000 votes in Pennsylvania (nearly twice Mr. Trump’s 44,000-vote win there four years ago).

And Mr. Biden is ahead by more than 20,000 votes in Wisconsin (almost the same as Mr. Trump’s 23,000-vote victory there in 2016).

On top of those leads, Mr. Biden also narrowly flipped the traditionally GOP-leaning states of Arizona and Georgia.

The 2020 presidential race reportedly looked close 12 hours after the first polling places closed on Election Night.

As of this writing, Mr. Biden’s lead in the popular vote was 6,026,117.

 

(The author, who is now based in New York City, was a former editor of two dailies in Iloilo, Philippines)