What’s Amazing About The Surveys?

By Herbert Vego

MANY times, in this corner, I questioned the reliability of “face to face” senatorial surveys for being statistically improbable. If we go by their claim of having 1,200 to 2,400 respondents, how could that number represent the more than 68 million registered voters in the Philippines?

Blessed are the candidates in the “magic 12” who utilize the surveys for their audio-visual advertisements. Two of them — Bong Go and Bato dela Rosa — are “Dutertard” who could soon be implicated by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for crimes against humanity.

What amazes me more than Go and Bato, however, is that even the supposedly independent journalists, TV hosts, broadcasters and vloggers propagate the notion that the top 12 in the surveys are authentic.

By failing to read between the lines, we do not see the motives of these pollsters who are beholden to their unrevealed sponsors.

With due respect to media colleagues who drum up these surveys, I fear that they are done with a hidden goal.  My own opinion is that if the frontrunners get elected in today’s election, they could make or unmake Vice-President Sara Duterte vis-a-vis  her forthcoming impeachment trial in the Senate-turned-impeachment court.

Thus, we need to vote for senators who would judge her correctly. But since it’s a numbers game, it behooves us to go beyond the surveys.

To me, the right choices are the candidates who are not biased for the vice-president.

You see, while the House of Representatives has already impeached Sara, it’s the Senate-turned-impeachment court that will either convict or acquit her.  If convicted, she will be removed from her post and banned from holding any other public office.

The impeachment complaint against her covers graft and corruption, plotting to assassinate President Marcos, First Lady Liza and Speaker Martin Romualdez, involvement in extrajudicial killings and incitement to insurrection and public disorder.

The dice seem to roll in VP Sara’s favor, considering that there has to be two-thirds — 16 out of 24 senators — voting to convict her.

So, all that she needs are nine senators to save her?  Not really. Actually, eight will do.

You see, there are at present 23 senators because of the resignation of Sonny Angara to join the Cabinet as Secretary of Education. Eleven of them will remain in office until 2028. They are Francis Escudero, Jinggoy Estrada, JV Ejercito, Alan Cayetano, Win Gatchalian, Mark Villar, Migz Zubiri, Risa Hontiveros, Loren Legarda, Robin Padilla, and Raffy Tulfo

They will be joined by 12 who will be elected today.

There are six re-electionists running: Bong Go, Bato de la Rosa, Bong Revilla, Pia Cayetano, Lito Lapid and Imee Marcos.

Five former senators are also running: Ping Lacson, Tito Sotto, Manny Pacquiao, Bam Aquino and Kiko Pangilinan.

Running for senators, too, are Benhur Abalos, Erwin Tulfo, Rodante Marcoleta, Sonny Matula, Apollo Quiboloy, Abby Binay, Willie Revillame, Vic Rodriguez, Heidi Mendoza, Arlene Brosas, France Castro, Camille Villar, Teddy Casiño, Leody de Guzman, Luke Espiritu, Ben Tulfo, Raul Lambino, plus a few lesser-known ones who would complete the list of 65 senatorial wannabes.

To reiterate, VP Sara will need only eight senator-judges to side with her. It truly is easier than having 16 to convict her.

Since there are only 11 incumbents who will surely remain until 2028, my personal opinion is that six of them are pro-Sara. So, assuming two more from the incoming senators are as biased for her, she would remain in office.

Therefore, even if all ten senatorial candidates running under President Marcos’ Alyansa Para sa Bagong Pilipinas make it to the “magic 12,” it would not reverse the equation in favor of the impeached vice-president.

Seven Alyansa bets, ironically, are known friends of the Dutertes: Cayetano, Tulfo, Sotto, Lacson, Lapid, Villar and Revilla.

So, if you are for VP Sara’s conviction, you would eliminate them from your voting list. My own unfinished list includes former senators Kiko Pangilinan and Bam Aquino, plus Abalos, Brosas, Castro, Casiño, De Guzman, Espiritu, Matula, and Mendoza.

If you would opt to be “guided” by the latest SWS survey rather than your own judgment, the top 12 are Tulfo, Go, Sotto, Lapid, Ben Tulfo, Lacson, Abby Binay, Dela Rosa, Villar, Cayetano, Revilla and, for the first time, Imee Marcos.

Anyway, let us go against the perception that we are “bobotantes”.

-oOo-

MORE POWER’S ‘OPLAN HALALAN’

ALL systems go for Iloilo City’s distribution utility, MORE Power, which announced yesterday that it is operating normally within established technical parameters.

“In preparation for the May 12, 2025 national and local elections,” to quote its Facebook page, “we have enhanced our monitoring protocols and activated contingency measures to ensure continuous power reliability before, during, and after the election period.

“Our operational teams remain on full alert to promptly address any system irregularities and maintain uninterrupted service for all MORE Power consumers.”