What the US Election Means for the Philippines: Harris vs. Trump

As the United States gears up for another high-stakes election on November 5 (November 6 in PHL), the potential face-off between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump has sparked interest not only within American borders but globally.

For the Philippines, where the effects of US foreign policy are felt acutely across economic, political, and security fronts, the outcome of this election could have a profound influence on our nation’s future.

Philippine Democracy: A Model or a Warning?

The ideological differences between Harris and Trump are stark. Harris represents continuity from the Biden administration, which has emphasized democratic alliances and values abroad. This includes vocal support for human rights, transparent governance, and anti-corruption measures. A Harris presidency could mean continued emphasis on these issues in the Philippines, potentially leading to renewed pressure on Manila to improve governance standards and uphold democratic principles. This could serve as a catalyst for reform, encouraging the Philippine government to focus on transparency and accountability, crucial for a healthy democracy.

In contrast, Trump’s previous approach was far less focused on democratic values abroad, with a preference for transactional relationships that emphasized US economic and strategic interests over governance standards. A Trump victory may signal a return to a more lenient stance on governance issues, allowing Philippine leaders greater freedom from US scrutiny on internal matters. For local leaders who prefer a “hands-off” approach from the West, this might provide leeway, but it risks reinforcing existing political inequalities and weakening democratic institutions.

Economic Interests: A Mixed Bag

For many Filipinos, the US election is also about economic stability. Harris’s platform is likely to uphold trade agreements and seek to bolster economic cooperation in ways that benefit Philippine industries like BPOs and agriculture, given her administration’s affinity for multilateral economic cooperation. Her continuation of Biden’s push for supply chain resilience could also open opportunities for the Philippines to position itself as an alternative manufacturing hub, especially with the trend of “nearshoring” in Asia.

Trump, on the other hand, has been known for a more protectionist stance, aiming to bring jobs back to the US and reduce dependence on foreign labor. Should he succeed in his bid, Philippine industries that rely heavily on US demand might face challenges. A return to Trump’s policies could threaten the Philippines’ BPO sector, which provides jobs to millions of Filipinos, by incentivizing American companies to relocate jobs back home. However, Trump’s preference for bilateral agreements over multilateral ones could also open avenues for a trade deal that could directly benefit the Philippines if negotiated well.

West Philippine Sea and the China Conundrum

Of particular importance to the Philippines is how the US election will shape its policy towards China. Harris’s foreign policy stance, likely an extension of the Biden administration’s, involves a strategic partnership with allies in the Indo-Pacific. This would mean a continued US presence in the West Philippine Sea, providing the Philippines with a strong ally in its maritime disputes with China. The Harris administration would likely push for expanded joint military exercises, increased funding for the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), and a reaffirmed commitment to the Mutual Defense Treaty. This could provide a deterrent to Chinese aggression and give the Philippines more leverage in protecting its territorial waters.

Trump’s approach to China is more unpredictable. While he adopted a hard stance against China on trade, his foreign policy often lacked consistency, oscillating between confrontation and conciliatory gestures. A Trump win might result in a less predictable US stance on the West Philippine Sea, which could embolden China to test the limits of Philippine sovereignty in the area. While Trump might still use tough rhetoric against China, his focus may shift toward direct economic competition, possibly deprioritizing the Philippines’ strategic needs in favor of US-centric economic policies.

Geopolitical Balancing Act

For the Philippines, maintaining a balanced relationship with both the US and China remains crucial. A Harris administration would likely see a return to multilateral diplomacy and cooperation, supporting the Philippines as part of a coalition of allies in Southeast Asia. This could lead to increased diplomatic and military support, providing Manila with more bargaining power. In contrast, Trump’s tendency to pivot towards unilateral actions may create a more challenging environment for the Philippines, forcing it to navigate the South China Sea dispute with less predictable US backing.

The US elections present a crossroads for Philippine foreign relations. A Harris administration promises stability, with a predictable focus on democratic values, economic cooperation, and support in the West Philippine Sea.

Trump’s return could bring a more pragmatic but unpredictable US stance, with possible economic drawbacks and a complicated relationship with China. Either way, the Philippine government must be prepared to adapt swiftly to protect its sovereignty, democracy, and economic interests amidst these global shifts.