Western Visayas inflation accelerates in December 2025

By Francis Allan L. Angelo

Inflation in Western Visayas picked up pace in December 2025, reversing months of slowdown and brief deflation earlier in the year, as rising food prices pushed the region’s headline inflation rate to 1.8 percent, according to the latest report of the Philippine Statistics Authority.

The December figure marked a notable increase from the 1.0 percent inflation rate recorded in November 2025, signaling renewed price pressures across the region toward the end of the year, data from the PSA Regional Statistical Services Office VI showed.

Despite the year-end acceleration, the average inflation rate for Western Visayas from January to December 2025 settled at 1.5 percent, significantly lower than the 3.4 percent posted in December 2024 and the 3.7 percent annual average recorded in 2024.

Inflation refers to the general increase in prices of goods and services over time, which reduces the purchasing power of money, meaning the same amount of money buys fewer goods than before.

A simple way to understand inflation is to imagine money as water in a bottle, where rising prices are like holes slowly forming in the container, causing the water level to drop even if the amount poured in stays the same.

In Western Visayas, that “leak” slowed considerably for most of 2025 before widening again in December, driven largely by movements in food prices, particularly vegetables and rice-related products.

PSA data showed that the main driver of the December inflation acceleration was the Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages commodity group, whose inflation rate rebounded to 1.5 percent in December from a deflationary -0.5 percent in November.

Food inflation alone rose to 1.0 percent in December 2025, a sharp turnaround from the -1.2 percent recorded a month earlier, highlighting how quickly price movements in basic necessities can shift the overall inflation picture.

Economists often liken food inflation to the engine of a car in a convoy, where once it accelerates, the entire group tends to move faster, even if other vehicles remain steady.

Within the food category, the PSA attributed the upward trend to a slower annual decline in cereals and cereal products, including rice, whose inflation rate improved to -9.1 percent in December from -13.8 percent in November.

This slower decline means rice prices were still lower than a year ago, but not falling as quickly, contributing significantly to the overall rise in food inflation.

Rice accounted for a 63.2 percent share of the upward food inflation trend in December, underscoring its central role in household spending, particularly in Western Visayas where rice is a staple.

Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses posted the sharpest increase, with inflation surging to 17.0 percent in December from 8.4 percent in November, making vegetables the single largest contributor to food inflation.

Vegetables alone accounted for a 165.4 percent share of the food inflation trend, followed by fish and other seafood, which contributed 130.9 percent, reflecting strong price pressures on protein sources.

Other commodity groups also posted higher inflation rates during the month, including Clothing and Footwear at 2.8 percent, Recreation, Sport and Culture at 4.1 percent, and Personal Care and Miscellaneous Goods and Services at 3.1 percent.

However, some categories helped temper the overall rise, as inflation slowed in Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco, Furnishings and Household Maintenance, Transport, and Information and Communication.

For low-income households, the inflation picture was slightly less severe but still concerning, as inflation for the bottom 30 percent income households in Western Visayas accelerated to 1.2 percent in December from -0.5 percent in November.

Although this rate remained lower than the regional average of 1.8 percent for all income households, it marked a sharp reversal from deflation and highlighted renewed cost pressures on vulnerable families.

The main drivers for low-income households mirrored the general trend, led by Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages, which rose to 1.0 percent from -1.7 percent, and a less severe decline in Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels, which improved to -2.0 percent from -2.7 percent.

To understand this dynamic, inflation for low-income households can be compared to a smaller boat riding the same waves as larger ships, where the impact of food price increases is felt more sharply because food takes up a larger share of household budgets.

Provincial data revealed uneven inflation trends across Western Visayas, with Iloilo recording the highest inflation rate at 2.8 percent in December, up sharply from 1.5 percent in November.

In contrast, Guimaras posted the lowest inflation rate at -1.3 percent, remaining in deflationary territory for the month.

Antique and Capiz also recorded upward movements, with inflation rates of 1.2 percent and 0.9 percent, respectively, while Aklan remained constant at 0.9 percent.

Iloilo’s higher inflation was heavily influenced by Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages, which jumped to 2.5 percent from -1.1 percent, and Restaurants and Accommodation Services, which surged to 17.0 percent.

In contrast to the provincial trend, inflation in Iloilo City slowed to 1.9 percent in December from 2.3 percent in November, even as food prices increased.

This deceleration was driven by sharp drops in other key indices, including Furnishings and Household Maintenance, which fell from 12.8 percent to 3.0 percent, and Transport, which plunged from 2.1 percent to just 0.3 percent.

Transport inflation alone accounted for a 20.9 percent share of Iloilo City’s downward inflation trend, making it one of the top three factors behind the city’s slower overall rate.

Additional cooling came from Health, which eased to 4.6 percent from 5.4 percent, and Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels, which slowed to 1.5 percent from 2.0 percent.

Guimaras’ continued deflation was largely due to deeply negative food inflation at -4.5 percent, which alone accounted for a 167.1 percent share of the province’s inflation trend.

Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels at -1.0 percent and Education Services at -0.8 percent further reinforced the province’s deflationary state, offsetting price increases in Health and Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco.

Looking back at the entire year, Western Visayas’ inflation path in 2025 followed three distinct phases, beginning with a steady decline from a high of 4.0 percent in January to 0.6 percent by June and July.

The region then experienced a brief deflationary period in August, when inflation dipped to -0.3 percent, a stark contrast to the 5.0 percent recorded in August 2024.

From September onward, inflation rebounded gradually, climbing to 0.2 percent in September, 0.7 percent in October, and 1.0 percent in November before accelerating to 1.8 percent in December.

This progression can be likened to a diver jumping into a pool, starting at a high platform, sinking below the surface in midyear, and then climbing back up the ladder by December, though still far from the original height.

For households and policymakers, the December inflation data underscore the importance of closely monitoring food supply chains, particularly rice and vegetables, which continue to exert outsized influence on price movements in Western Visayas.

The PSA noted that while inflation remains relatively low by historical standards, the year-end acceleration highlights the need for sustained vigilance to protect consumers, especially low-income households, from renewed price pressures in 2026.