We Need Better Education, Not Just More Classrooms

For decades, the story of Philippine education has been one of perpetual crisis—a relentless struggle against classroom shortages, where students are packed into rooms like sardines. The problem has felt so immense and intractable that it has become a grim, accepted feature of our national landscape. But new research reveals a powerful and unexpected ally in this fight: a profound demographic shift that offers a temporary, one-time opportunity to finally solve this crisis. The Philippines’ fertility rate has fallen, and with it, the tide of new students is receding. This is our demographic tailwind, a golden chance to catch up. But it is a race against time, one we cannot afford to lose as our existing schools crumble into obsolescence.

The depth of the current crisis is staggering. As of 2021, the nation faced a deficit of approximately 108,000 classrooms to meet a basic benchmark of 50 students per room. The vast majority of this shortage, over 70,000 classrooms, is at the elementary level. The problem is most acute in our urban centers. In Metro Manila’s Northern District, a shocking 90% of public elementary students were crammed into congested schools in 2021. Neighboring provinces like Rizal and Cavite fare little better, with congestion rates of 66% and 57.7%, respectively. These statistics represent compromised learning, exhausted teachers, and squandered human potential.

Yet, amidst this bleak picture, a window of opportunity has opened. The Philippines’ total fertility rate (TFR) has recently dropped to 1.9 births per woman, below the 2.1 replacement level needed to maintain population size. The Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) projects this will lead to a general decline in the school-age population across most of the country through 2040. This demographic lull is the tailwind. With fewer children entering the system each year, the pressure on our overburdened schools will ease. For the first time, closing the 108,000-classroom gap seems not just aspirational, but achievable.

However, this tailwind is blowing against a fierce headwind: the rapid decay of our existing infrastructure. Our school buildings are aging, and many are doing so past their breaking point. A 2023 inventory revealed that huge portions of our school rooms have exceeded their government-assigned useful life: 80.2% of wooden structures, 51.7% of mixed wood-and-concrete buildings, and 24.5% of concrete ones are already considered obsolete.

The clock is ticking loudly. PIDS projects that if we fail to act, by 2040 only 18.6% of our current school rooms will remain in good condition, while about 14.5% will be condemned. This is why the demographic opportunity is so fleeting. Even with fewer students, the problem will persist if the buildings they are meant to learn in are falling apart. When this accelerated wear and tear is factored in, the classroom deficit in 2040 could still be as high as 122,000. The demographic lull doesn’t solve the problem on its own; it gives us the breathing room to fix it before our infrastructure debt becomes insurmountable.

This race is about far more than just buildings; it is more on securing our economic future. The quality of our education system is directly linked to our ability to harness the “demographic dividend”—the potential for accelerated economic growth from a large working-age population. Research shows the Philippines has already benefited from this, particularly from a “second demographic dividend,” where investments in human capital boost productivity. This behavioral change contributed a massive 2.3 percentage points to annual growth in per capita consumption between 1990 and 2015.

That dividend is not automatic; it must be earned through smart, sustained investment in our people, starting from their first day of school. A safe, conducive learning environment is the fundamental building block of the human capital needed to power long-term, sustainable growth. The choice before us is clear. We can squander this unique demographic window and allow our classroom crisis to deepen, or we can seize this moment with a strategic, aggressive building and repair campaign. This is not just an infrastructure plan; it is an economic imperative. Wasting this chance is a failure we will pay for generations to come.