Watching out for El Niño

By Herbert Vego

YOU better watch out; El Niño is coming to town.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) estimates a 92 percent probability of a potential “Super El Niño” hitting the Philippines.

“Super El Niño” refers to the phenomenon that brings a high risk of prolonged droughts, agricultural disruptions, and extreme heat waves across the country.

I heard Department of Science and Technology (DOST) Secretary Renato Solidum Jr. saying in a radio interview, “Posibleng ang El Niño ay lilitaw magmula sa buwan ng Hunyo, Hulyo, o Agosto hanggang early part of 2027.”

He warned about a worsening El Niño that could push many provinces into below-normal rainfall conditions by October.

While most parts of the Philippines are experiencing hot temperatures ranging from 42 to 51 degrees Celsius, El Niño has not yet set in. But as a proverb goes, “To be forewarned is to be forearmed.”

We are alarmed, knowing that El Niño, even if not “super,” refers to a long rainless period or drought due to climatic aberration. It is a national emergency that we are helpless to fend off.

Solidum urged farmers, households, and local government units to begin adjusting planting schedules, conserving water, and securing alternative irrigation sources before conditions worsen toward year-end.

The severe heat index that now afflicts us, between 42°C and 51°C, is dangerous beyond health issues. Widespread droughts could heavily affect palay output, putting pressure on rice reserves and potentially forcing an increase in imports.

Lower-than-average precipitation threatens water reserves and hydropower capacity, sparking concerns over water restrictions and localized power interruptions.

On the other hand, while there could be a lower number of storms for the Philippines, any storm that makes landfall could reach higher, more destructive categories, from typhoon to super typhoon.

PAGASA expects the southwest monsoon to prevail in the country from July to August before El Niño sets in. This we learned from a news report based on a TV interview with Ana Liza Solis, chief of the Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section of PAGASA.

The southwest monsoon in the Philippines, or Habagat, is a seasonal wind pattern bringing warm, humid air and heavy rainfall.

There was a time when Iloilo provincial agriculturist Dr. Ildefonso Toledo shared with me his knowledge about El Niño as a cyclical phenomenon that occurs every three to five years, but usually does not linger long enough to paralyze agricultural productivity. In fact, it has already been 21 years since 2005, when El Niño crippled our rice production.

Three years later, in 2008, La Niña — a long, rainy, and stormy season — came and brought Typhoon Frank, which devastated Iloilo City and neighboring towns with floods up to 6 feet deep.

The El Niño/La Niña climatic succession in diverse places is just one of the four impacts of global warming that desperately ache for solutions if we have to survive. The others are sea-level rise, temperature rise, and rainfall variability.

My way to prepare for the worst this summer is to plant camote in the backyard.

-oOo-

CHEAPER POWER FROM PRIMELECTRIC

WHAT’s in common among MORE Electric and Power Corp. (MORE Power) of Iloilo City, Negros Electric and Power Corp. (NEPC) of Bacolod City, and Bohol Light Company of Tagbilaran City?

They are the distribution utilities (DUs) managed by Primelectric Holdings Inc., which is largely owned by billionaire Enrique Klar Razon Jr., with Roel Z. Castro as president and CEO.

All three possess the distinction of billing the lowest rates despite fluctuations in fuel, generation, and transmission costs. This month, MORE Power charges only PHP 11.87 per kilowatt-hour, down from PHP 12.14 per kWh last April.

NEPC’s PHP 11.38 per kWh is 87 centavos cheaper than its previous rate.

Bohol Light bills the cheapest residential rate at PHP 10.50 per kWh.

To quote Primelectric President and CEO Roel Castro, “While global energy markets remain unpredictable, our priority has always been to deliver stable and more affordable electricity to the communities we serve. These rate reductions reflect our efforts to cushion households from volatility in fuel and commodity markets.”

Primelectric has allocated over PHP 2.1 billion to upgrade them. The upgrades reduce system losses, ensure reliable electricity, and maintain highly competitive power rates.