Visayas power supply tightens again, and October looks worse
By Rjay Zuriaga Castor
ILOILO CITY — Power supply in the Visayas tightened again Monday, Sept. 21, three days after the grid returned to normal operating condition, as major generating units in Cebu and Iloilo went offline.
The National Grid Corp. of the Philippines (NGCP) placed the Visayas grid on yellow alert from 4 p.m. to 8 p.m., with 2,500 megawatts (MW) of available capacity against peak demand of 2,426 MW.
That left a margin of 74 MW.
NGCP raises a yellow alert when the operating margin falls short of the grid’s contingency requirement.
The grid operator cited the unavailability of Therma Visayas Inc. (TVI) Unit 1 in Toledo City, Cebu, and Panay Energy Development Corp. (PEDC) Unit 3 in Iloilo City, the tripping of PEDC Unit 2 at 1:34 p.m. Monday, increased forecast demand in the Visayas, and reduced power imports from Mindanao.
NGCP said 11 generating plants went on forced outage in September, while other units have been unavailable since previous months and years.
Seventeen other plants were operating at derated capacities, bringing total unavailable capacity to 859.8 MW.
Department of Energy (DOE) data showed that TVI Unit 1, which has a capacity of 169 MW, returned to service Sept. 18.
The unit encountered problems Sept. 19 and ran at reduced capacity before going on forced outage the same day.
PEDC Unit 3, with a capacity of 150 MW, is projected to return to service Oct. 27.
NGCP had cited the same two coal-fired units when it placed the Visayas on red alert Sept. 3.
The grid was also on red alert Sept. 12, when available capacity of 2,109 MW fell short of peak demand of 2,346 MW.
DOE Undersecretary Mario Marasigan said the Visayas can receive only about 50 MW of power imports from Mindanao because several generating units in the Mindanao grid are also unavailable.
The DOE has been pursuing measures to restore generating capacity and strengthen the Visayas grid after recurring outages reduced the reserves available to respond to further generation losses.
More alerts seen in October
Marasigan warned that the Visayas could again experience yellow and red alerts during the second and third weeks of October because of scheduled preventive maintenance at several power plants.
“We could have potential red and yellow alerts in […] the second and third weeks of October. This is because we have scheduled plants to conduct preventive maintenance,” he said.
A red alert means supply is insufficient to meet consumer demand and the grid’s regulating requirement.
The DOE expects about 501 MW of capacity to be unavailable during the second week of October, when 18 generating plants are scheduled for preventive maintenance.
Two coal-fired units are on the schedule: KEPCO SPC Power Corp. (KSPC) Unit 1 in Cebu, with a capacity of 103 MW, and Palm Concepcion Power Corp. (PCPC) Unit 1 in Concepcion, Iloilo, with 135 MW.
KSPC Unit 1 is scheduled for 19 days of maintenance, while PCPC Unit 1 is scheduled for 30 days.
About 370 MW of capacity is expected to be unavailable during the third week of October.
Aside from the two baseload plants, diesel, biomass, and solar facilities are also scheduled for maintenance.
The DOE has identified 253 MW of additional ancillary service capacity across the Visayas, including battery energy storage projects in Cebu, Leyte, Negros, Bohol, and Panay, as part of its medium-term measures to stabilize the grid.
Marasigan said that capacity, expected to be available during the second week of October, could limit the alert to yellow.
Without it, the grid could face a red alert.
Self-sufficient islands
Amid recurring supply constraints, the DOE is developing a master plan aimed at making the Visayas’ island groups capable of meeting their own electricity requirements even when other parts of the regional grid are unavailable.
Marasigan said the plan would divide the Visayas into three subregions: Leyte-Samar, Cebu-Bohol, and Negros-Panay.
“In our master plan, we have identified that a possible solution for the Visayas is to group the islands into subregions and install sufficient generating capacity in each subregion to sustainably meet the electricity requirements of the islands,” he said.
He said each subregion should have enough capacity to operate in “islanding mode,” allowing it to serve its own demand even if other parts of the regional grid are offline.
“However, they will remain interconnected, so they will still be interdependent,” he added.
Marasigan said the DOE has identified generation projects based on the requirements of each island group.
Leyte-Samar would require the least additional development because its existing geothermal generation is already more than sufficient to meet the islands’ requirements.
The master plan includes near-, medium-, and long-term power capacity measures.
Near-term measures include the deployment of battery energy storage systems and power barges in 2026 and the first quarter of 2027.
Medium-term measures include additional ancillary services and renewable energy projects targeted for 2027.
Long-term measures include new baseload and renewable energy projects mostly scheduled from 2028 onward.
“We have already identified the capacities needed and have spoken with all the power generation companies to secure their commitments and commissioning dates because it is important for us to have these capacities available,” Marasigan said.
The DOE is also looking at developing a liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility in the Visayas, targeting 440 MW by 2028 and an additional 500 MW by 2031.
“It is not easy to build an LNG facility because it also requires supporting facilities, but we already have a commitment from a potential supplier. We will go through the gas auction so we can provide the capacity that can be supplied by natural gas,” he said.
The DOE has issued guidelines for the mid-merit natural gas capacity auction, a competitive bidding process intended to contract gas-fired capacity that can ramp up when renewable output declines.
The DOE is targeting about 3,840 MW in total.
It aims to launch the auction this year and award contracts by the fourth quarter.
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