VFA-for-visa tantrum

By Artchil B. Fernandez

Du30’s infamous governance by pique is in full display again. The US government recently canceled Tokhang implementer Bato de la Rosa’s US visa. This move of the State Department angered Du30. In a Leyte speech this week, he issued a threat to the US.

“Now they won’t let Bato (dela Rosa) go to America. I am warning you … if you don’t do the correction there. One, I will terminate the bases, Visiting Forces Agreement. I will end that son of a bitch,” Du30 declared. I am giving the government and the (US) one month to talk, or I will terminate the VFA… No more base. They have to start to talk to us because they have to go. You are rude,” he ranted.

While it is quick to connect the cancellation with the 2020 US budget which has a clause that penalizes Philippine officials involved in the unjust incarceration of Sen. Leila de Lima, it could be related to an earlier US law. In 2018 Trump signed the Asia Reassurance Initiative Act (ARIA), “which commits $1.5 billion to countries in Indo-Pacific but specified that the assistance to the Philippines would be dependent on the adherence of its counternarcotics strategy to international human rights standards.” Bato de la Rosa admitted that aside from him, the US visa of another retired police official involved in the bloody and gory war against illegal drugs was also revoked.

This implies that more sanctions and punishment are coming once the clause on the 2020 US budget and the US Global Magnistky Act which punishes human rights offenders are enforced. The EU lately passed a measure similar to the Magnitsky Act. The world of Bato de Rosa and other Tokhang enforcers will get smaller.

Going back to the VFA-for-visa tantrum of Du30, his childish reaction exposes his shallowness. He crafts policies based on pique and not on thoughtful evaluation of facts and situations. It also demonstrates how Du30 uses his position to advance personal interest and not national interest.

True, the VFA is a lopsided agreement that primarily benefits the US. It contained many onerous provisions foremost is, errant US forces remain in the custody of the US government. It should not have been signed in 1998.

But Du30’s reason to terminate the agreement is personal pique or tantrum and not national interest or principled position. Bato de la Rosa’s US visa in exchange for VFA? “Pray tell, where is the connection?” Sen. Ping Lacson asked.  If the US restores the visa, the VFA remains? Philippine foreign policy becomes hostage to the personal interest of high government officials. This is another clear example of how Filipino leaders use their position to serve personal interests and not that of the nation.

Will this reckless gambit of Du30 work? Can he restore Bato de la Rosa’s US visa by threatening to scuttle the VFA?

The US is a world superpower for more than 80 years and remains the only superpower today. Given the global superpower status of the US, it will not pamper the tantrum of an upstart, petty autocrat from a Third World country. To do so will gravely undermine the global standing of the US as a world power. If Du30 thinks he will be the first leader from a poor country to make the US bend the knee, he once again displays his ignorance of international politics and grossly overestimates his own standing.

Ordering his cabinet officials not to travel to the US and turning down Trump’s invitation to attend the US-ASEAN summit in Las Vegas this year are hilarious moves to force the restoration of Bato de la Rosa’s US visa. Du30’s absence in the summit will not be missed and Filipino officials are insignificant entities to America. On the contrary, Du30’s cabinet officials particularly his economic managers will lose sleep over Du30 prohibition. The US is the finance center of the world and global businesses are conducted and concluded there. The ban will imperil negotiations on the selling of Philippine bonds for example and other financial transactions of the country.

Why are Du30’s officials itching to go to the US? Their principal dislikes America and expressed his undying love to China. They should follow his lead and go to China instead, particularly to Wuhan province.

Pettiness aside, another reason why Du30 made the move is to test the waters, an attempt to find leverage given the bleak future he faces once he is out of power a little over two years from now. He and his officials face tough punishments under the US Global Magnistky Act and Asia Reassurance Initiative Act (ARIA) as well as similar actions from the European Union. Complicating their situation is the current complaints against them before the International Criminal Court (ICC). Once all these factors converge soon, Du30 and his cahoots will be brought before the bar of international justice. This is their greatest fear.

Du30 believes if his VFA-for-visa strategy succeeds, he hopes the gain will give him and his partners-in-crime room for negotiation or space to wiggle once the long arm of justice catches them. Problem is, this tactic is cheap and will fail. The fact that the US government ignored Du30’s tantrum and kept a steely silence indicates it has all the aces up its sleeve. For one, if the VFA is abrogated, it will hand the Left, the Philippine military’s arch-enemy an enormous victory. Will the military allow this?

Truth is Du30’s threat is an empty gesture, a funny move. It is a bad joke and a crude attempt to hide his insecurity and conceal his fear of the grim future that awaits him and his minions. There is no escape for them from justice. Whether they like it or not, they will be made to answer for the slaughter and mass murder of thousands who perished in the bloody war against illegal drugs. The cancellation of Bato de la Rosa’s US visa is just the beginning of their travails.