Unpredictable Covid-19 defies forecasts

By Art Jimenez

 

The “discontinued” (read terminated) employees of shuttered ABS-CBN Network (ABS) should be considered “retired” and be given their company and SSS retirement benefits. However, the greater majority of the so-called 11,000 ABS employees who are contractuals or on a no-work, no-pay contract, especially those who have been on their broadcast-related jobs for years and years, should consult their lawyers and/or the DOLE.

Korina Sanchez and Ces Drilon were quoted in the media that ABS “discontinued” them.

Sanchez Instagrammed: “We are called one by one, personally, to be told that we are ‘discontinued.’”

Why did ABS use “discontinued” rather than “terminated,” “dismissed,” “retired” or even “separated?” Is it because the latter terms denote severance pay? And to be “discontinued” does not?

What I know is, terminating employees due to retrenchment to cut or avoid financial losses or business stoppage (as in the case of ABS) is authorized or legal under our labor laws. However, the workers so affected must still be notified of their de-employment and the reason therefor at least 30 days before actual termination. The DOLE regional office must be copied in.

Such employees are entitled to separation pay in the amount equivalent to a month’s salary for every year of service.

ABS knows its legal obligations and implement this instead of just remaining quiet when their “discontinued” employees demand relief from elsewhere.

For their part, ABS workers should avail themselves of this financial benefit before crying for and demanding government money assistance.

They keep their dignity that way.

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Time and again Covid-19 has defied forecasts even from renowned mathematicians, economists, and researchers trained in the scientific field of forecasting. A friend even suggested it’s easier to foresee stock market price movements than that the “invisible” SARS-CoV-2 virus.

Factors that affect stock prices in the near term (a few days to a week, for instance) are identified and may be projected with relative accuracy especially by the veteran or experienced stock brokers. For a specific share of stock, Jollibee for example, these factors include its stock’s profitability profile and dividend payout record, recent prices, health of the firm’s CEO, the dollar value viz the peso, impact of the Asian and NY stock exchanges on our local bourse, and the general trend of the local stock market (e.g., a bull or bear market).

In estimating the SARS-CoV-2 virus spread and its disease COVID-19, the parameters are seemingly simple and objective-specific. For example, key factors in the virus spread include its basic reproduction number over a number of days (which is a study by itself), incubation period, and daily number of infections (another study) for a specific barangay, city, province, or even region. Finally, input all these data in the simulation (forecasting) model and analyze the results.

R naught (R₀). The UP Octa Research group did a study basically based on the above factors from March 1 to June 26 and determined a virus infection reproduction rate R naught (R₀) of 1.28. Meaning, one infected person can transmit his disease to 1.28 persons or between 1 (best case) and 2 persons (worst case). Using their researched statistics, they predicted that by July 31, the number of Covid-19 infections could reach 60,000 cases without many interventions in containing the spread.

In an interview with CNN Philippines, UP Octa principal, Professor Guido David, Ph.D. said 60,000 was the lower value of R naught with 65,000 as the upper limit.

But COVID-19 as volatile and easy-to-transmit-and-catch as it is, the number of COVID-19 confirmed infection cases has already surpassed the UP Octa Research forecast of 60,000 on July 16 when DOH recorded 61,266 cases. Just two days later on July 18, the 65,000 worst-case scenario of UP Octa was breached with 65,304 cases. And July 31 was, at that time, still almost two weeks away.

My own forecast for July 31 was 62,700 cases. This was breached on July 17 when 63,001 cases were reported.

As of July 20, confirmed cases numbered 68,898 cases, and counting.

Should this discourage further forecasting studies on this invisible Covid?

Of course not! When publicized often enough, the forecasts keep the DOH on its toes and Spox Harry Roque in giggling suspense!