UniTeam Cracks Widen in Senate Race

By Francis Allan L. Angelo

The April 2025 survey of WR Numero revealed a widening North-South divide in Philippine electoral preferences, and with it, the deepening ideological fault line between the Marcos and Duterte camps.

Senate candidates under the administration-backed Alyansa para sa Bagong Pilipinas topped voter preferences in Metro Manila, Luzon, and the Visayas. But the landscape shifted dramatically in Mindanao, where allies of former President Rodrigo Duterte, including Senators Ronald “Bato” Dela Rosa and Bong Go, swept the rankings. This regional rift, reflected in the WR Numero Philippine Public Opinion Monitor (Volume 2025, Issue 2), conducted from March 31 to April 7, may be the clearest signal yet of political fragmentation heading into the 2025 midterm elections.

The survey, based on face-to-face interviews with 1,894 registered voters nationwide, showed Dela Rosa securing a staggering 76% in Mindanao, followed closely by Go with 67%. Other prominent names include Jimmy Bondoc and Phillip Salvador—both celebrities under the PDP-Laban banner—as well as preacher Apollo Quiboloy and SAGIP Rep. Rodante Marcoleta. These figures, long affiliated with the Duterte machinery, appear to be enjoying a resurgence, one that coincides with the March 12 arrest of Duterte by the International Criminal Court (ICC).

Far from diminishing the former president’s influence, the arrest seems to have galvanized his loyal base in Mindanao. It has reinforced narratives of foreign intervention and martyrdom—storylines that have long resonated in the South, where Duterte’s brand of populism and regional identity politics continues to hold sway.

In contrast, the Marcos coalition’s hold on Luzon and the Visayas may reflect not just incumbency advantage, but also the erosion of Duterte’s reach outside his bailiwick. Candidates like Erwin Tulfo, Ping Lacson, Lito Lapid, Pia Cayetano, and Abby Binay topped polls across Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon, while the Tulfo brothers, Cayetano, and Bong Go dominated in the Visayas.

The administration slate’s strength in these regions could signal a maturing support base for President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.—but it may also be a byproduct of Duterte’s legal entanglements and waning national control. Outside Mindanao, the survey shows cracks in the once solid pro-Duterte wall, raising questions about whether the Marcos administration is simply filling a vacuum left by the embattled former president.

It is worth noting that the WR Numero survey is non-commissioned and has a ±2% national margin of error, with subnational error margins ranging from ±5% to ±6%, all at a 95% confidence level. The methodology strengthens the case that the regional variations are not mere statistical noise, but reflections of real political undercurrents.

The findings underscore a broader question: Are the legal proceedings against Duterte—intended to assert international accountability—having the unintended consequence of re-energizing his political camp? If anything, the ICC’s move has given Duterte allies a renewed platform to frame their narrative around victimization, sovereignty, and nationalism.

For the Marcos camp, the challenge is twofold. First, it must prove that its popularity outside Mindanao is built on performance and not just the absence of a viable alternative. Second, it must navigate the delicate terrain of avoiding a full-blown split within the broader populist base that brought both Marcos and Duterte into power.

Meanwhile, the opposition, fragmented and largely missing from the top 12 Senate rankings across all regions, appears lost in the noise. The Marcos-Duterte rivalry is fast becoming the defining axis of 2025—and possibly 2028—leaving less room for third voices or genuine reforms.

The regional divide exposed by the WR Numero survey is not just electoral; it is a mirror of deeper political, cultural, and institutional gaps. If left unaddressed, this growing chasm may further erode national unity, complicate governance, and embolden the kind of patronage politics that thrives in polarized environments.

In the short term, the Senate race has become a proxy battle between two political dynasties. But in the long run, the challenge for Filipino voters is to decide whether the country should continue to revolve around these factions—or begin charting a more inclusive and forward-looking democratic path.