Two-front war

By Artchil B. Fernandez

In the Second World War, German dictator Adolf Hitler decided to wage a two-front war over the objection of his top generals. While his forces were busy fighting in the Western Front – against the US, UK, France, and their allies, he ordered an offensive against the USSR, opening a second war front, the Eastern Front. Hitler did this despite signing a non-aggression pact with Stalin in 1939. Boxed in and thinly spread the German army was no match to the Allies, attacking in the West and in the East. The two-front war was a critical factor in the defeat of Germany in the war.

Like Hitler, Philippine dictator wannabe Du30 at present opened a two-front war on top of various wars he currently engages – war against illegal drugs, the campaign against insurgency, the war against Manila traffic, etc. at the beginning of 2020. His fanatics believe he is invincible, the smartest and the best leader in the universe and this unshakable faith of his dwindling minions may have spurred Du30 to initiate a two-front war. Du30 and his fanatics think he is cleverer than Hitler.

The first war front Du30 opened this year is against the US and its supporters with the cancellation of the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA). This placed him at odds with the US and its supporters in the country, foremost among them are the Philippine military and pro-American politicians. Du30 is not motivated by the love of country when he did this but by pique and anger over the cancellation of the US visa of the chief implementer of his bloody and gory war against illegal drugs, Bato de la Rosa. The flux of the war on this front is still unfolding and it is interesting to see its outcome.

Simultaneous with the cancellation of the VFA is the offensive launched by Du30 through his Solicitor General Jose Calida against the media giant network ABC-CBN. Calida’s quo warranto petition in the Supreme Court asking for the cancellation of the franchise of the media conglomerate highlights the intensifying attacks of Du30 on the network.

Since assuming the presidency in 2016, Du30 has been sniping against ABS-CBN but with the expiration of its franchise on March 30, 2020, a few weeks from now; Du30’s war against the media conglomerate is now out in the open. Speaker Alan Peter Cayetano, groveling at Du30’s feet hoping to extend his term as House leader (despite the term sharing agreement) is blocking the process of the approval of the ABS-CBN franchise in Congress. Cayetano is delaying the deliberations on the franchise renewal of ABS-CBN if not grounding it to halt.

Similar to the VFA cancellation, Du30’s motive in blocking the renewal of the franchise of ABS-CBN is his personal grudge. He claims the television network did not air his political ads in the 2016 election and did not hide his desire to punish the station. Using the power of his office, Du30 vowed to ensure the closure of the network once its franchise expires.

The decision of Du30 driven by personal resentment and bitterness to terminate the VFA and close ABS-CBN – waging a two-front war – will have serious consequences not only to the Philippines but to the fortune of Du30. Like Hitler, at stake is not only the future of the Filipino people but the political, even the personal survival of Du30.

VFA termination will have serious military and economic consequences for the Philippines.  The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) stands to lose huge military aid from the US (AFP received $ 1.3 billion since VFA signing) as well as training (including schooling in top US military academies). US-Philippine bilateral trade is valued at $ 18.2 billion annually and the country enjoys trade privileges under the US Generalized System of Preference (GSP) like the preferential duty-free entry in the US market. All these will evaporate once the VFA is gone. Trade Secretary Ramon M. Lopez said the prospects of the Philippines negotiating a free-trade agreement (FTA) with the US are in serious doubt with VFA termination. This is just the beginning.

On the ABS-CBN closure, Du30’s allies in Congress are not toeing the line. There are eleven bills pending in the House for the renewal of the network’s franchise and the franchise measure will likely pass if put into a vote on the floor. This explains Cayetano’s refusal to act on the bills. In the Senate, majority of the senators are for the renewal of the franchise and the senators will deliberate their version of the franchise bill even if the House will sit on it. There is also the possibility of a veto override, hence the quo warranto petition of the Solicitor General before the Supreme Court.

The battle for the renewal of the ABS-CBN franchise in Congress exposes how fragile Du30’s super-majority is in the legislature. Cracks in the coalition are showing. If Du30 succeeds in killing the franchise bill with a slim majority, this does not bode well for the future of the coalition. Worst for Du30 if the House approves the franchise bill for it will indicate the implosion of the administration’s coalition. Du30 has already lost the battle for franchise renewal of ABS-CBN in the Senate.

Should Du30 succeed in closing ABS-CBN, he will have to contend with the backlash of the closure. The strong public reaction against the quo warranto petition which has put the administration on the defensive is already an indicator where the public opinion goes. If the negative public reaction to the closure of ABS-CBN is overwhelming and strident, things might go out of hand. Nobody can predict the outcome for there are many imponderables in politics. Du30 may need the military once matters get messy but he just castrated the AFP by terminating the VFA.

How Du30 wages the two-front war launched through the abrogation of VFA and non-renewal of the ABS-CBN franchise will be exciting to behold. The confluence of events these acts of Du30 unleashed will have fascinating dynamics. Where Hitler failed, Du30 may succeed.

Take out the popcorn.