Trump’s little excursion

By Artchil B. Fernandez

United States President Donald Trump launched a little excursion last Feb. 28, 2026, by joining Israel in bombing Iran, killing its Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and some senior officials. He called the leisure trip “Operation Epic Fury.”

Three weeks into the war, the American public and the world remain puzzled as to the logic behind the little excursion in Iran. Trump and his top officials gave three different reasons for bombing the Islamic Republic. In the early hours of the war, Trump in a taped message declared that regime change is the objective of his Iran excursion. He told the Iranians right after the first wave of attack to rise and take over their country. Trump also asserted that there is an imminent threat from Iran forcing him to act.

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth contradicted his principal, announcing regime change is not the goal but crippling Iran’s missile and nuclear capabilities. Secretary of State Marco Rubio offered a different explanation. Rubio claimed Israel dragged the U.S. into war with Iran with plans to attack its archrival. The U.S. is forced to join Israel since it will be targeted by Iran anyway, Rubio reasoned.

Trump expected the war with Iran would end quickly. After decapitating Iran’s leadership with the death of the Supreme Leader and top officials, the Islamic Republic will collapse; a new government friendly to the U.S. takes over, Trump calculated. Iran is a walk in the park like Venezuela. Trump thought he could bend reality.

Weeks before his Iran excursion, U.S. military leaders including the Joint Chiefs of Staff warned Trump his Iran incursion would be a disaster. U.S. intelligence agencies have also concluded that Iran does not pose an imminent threat, with the U.S.-Israel joint strike on Iran in June 2025 crippling its nuclear program. Resigned Director of the National Counterterrorism Center Joe Kent also confirmed the findings of U.S. intelligence agencies. “I cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran,” Kent’s resignation letter stated. “Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby.”

It is even perplexing that the attack on Iran happened when agreement between the U.S. and the Islamic Republic was within reach in a talk mediated by Oman. Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi said an important breakthrough was achieved in the negotiation. “The single most important achievement, I believe, is the agreement that Iran will never ever have nuclear material that will create a bomb,” he said. But the talk was broken when the U.S. and Israel struck Iran. Why attack amidst a diplomatic talk?

Instead of immediate capitulation and downfall, Trump and his gang are surprised that Iran responded with ferocious counterattacks. Drones and missiles rained on U.S. bases in the Gulf region, extensively damaging them. Radars critical to U.S. defense in the region, including the USD 1.1 billion AN/FPS-132 (Block 5) Ballistic Missile Early Warning Radar in Qatar, were destroyed by Iran. Despite declarations by Trump and Hegseth that the U.S. smashed nearly all of Iran’s air force, navy, and army as well as its missile capability, the country continues to hit U.S. and Israeli targets daily.

Iran named its retaliatory strikes “Operation True Promise 4” (Persian: Va’de-ye Sadeq), which is Iran’s response when a direct attack is made on its soil. The response involves multiple waves of high-precision ballistic missiles and advanced suicide drones. It is the fourth major direct retaliation. The first was in April 2024 after an attack on Iran’s Damascus consulate. The second was a response to the killings of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah and Hamas political bureau chairman Ismail Haniyeh in October 2024. The third happened during Iran’s 12-day war in June 2025 with the U.S. and Israel.

The most immediate impact of the current war is on the global economy. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, where 20 percent of world oil supplies flow. Prices of oil products soared. A global recession looms should the war prolong. Trump sought a ceasefire, which Iran flatly rejected. Iran declared the war will end on its own terms.

Iran has been preparing for an existential war for nearly four decades. Since it cannot defeat the U.S. and Israel in a conventional war, Iran invested heavily and prepared for asymmetrical warfare. It manufactured tens of thousands of drones and missiles, maintaining that its stockpiles are enough for a long-term conflict. Weekly, Iran is showcasing and unveiling new types of supersonic and hypersonic missiles.

Trump, on the other hand, is trapped in a quagmire he created. He can withdraw from the war by declaring victory — which he did — but is forced to continue the war since Iran refused to stop hitting back. Continuing the war, however, is draining U.S. resources — financial (USD 1 billion per day), depletion of expensive interceptors — and sending boots on the ground turns the conflict into another Vietnam, Iraq, or Afghanistan. The political cost of the war is too heavy for Trump to contemplate — loss of allies (NATO refusing to join his excursion), likely wipeout of his party in the midterm elections, and fracture of his base.

The threshold of victory for Trump is high — toppling the ayatollahs, which U.S. intelligence agencies conceded is unlikely. An extended war with an impossible objective will only bleed the U.S. Victory for Iran, on the other hand, is just surviving. The Islamic Republic can declare a triumph by merely outlasting the U.S. bombing onslaught.

It is clear Trump has no definite goal and lacks an exit strategy in his Iran excursion or incursion. He did it with illusion in mind, fueled by pure hubris. Reality punctured his fantasy. Trump’s refusal to accept the limits of military might, no matter how superior, is exacting a heavy price on the U.S. military due to his distorted thinking. Arrogance and braggadocio only bring disaster, giving Trump a dose of his own medicine.

The geopolitical map of the world is forever redrawn with Trump’s Iran excursion regardless of the outcome. A new world is emerging from the ashes of the conflict.