Trump Tariffs Ignite Clean Energy Boom in Asia

By Francis Allan L. Angelo

US President Donald Trump’s sweeping new tariffs on Southeast Asian solar products have unsettled global energy markets, but analysts say the disruption offers a rare opportunity: a clean energy boom in Southeast Asia, including the Philippines.

Amid escalating trade tensions, experts warn that Southeast Asian nations considering long-term U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) deals to rebalance trade could face significant risks.

“Signing long-term commitments to buy U.S. LNG would be a costly mistake,” Sam Reynolds, research lead at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, said.

Reynolds noted that U.S. LNG prices are increasingly uncompetitive, weighed down by rising costs and volatile global markets.

Instead, experts urge countries to accelerate renewable energy development, pointing to Southeast Asia’s untapped solar and wind potential.

According to a new report by Ember, fossil fuel imports account for 52 percent of the Philippines’ primary energy use.

With over a quarter of the global population spending more than 5 percent of GDP on fossil imports, reliance on foreign energy is increasingly seen as a national security risk.

“With over 300 gigawatts of untapped renewable energy potential, the Philippines is the natural leader in Southeast Asia’s transition towards strengthened localized clean energy development and supply chain resilience,” said Gerry Arances, executive director of the Center for Energy, Ecology, and Development (CEED) Philippines.

Arances emphasized the country’s opportunity to attract “debt-free investments” from global partners amid the volatility exacerbated by Trump’s policies.

The Trump administration announced tariffs up to 3,521% on solar imports from Southeast Asia, aiming to revitalize domestic manufacturing.

But Southeast Asian experts argue the move could backfire.

“Many clean energy manufacturers in SEA have grown by serving U.S. demand, not domestic markets,” said Christina Ng of the Energy Shift Institute.

“If these tariffs expand or persist, short-term disruptions are inevitable as firms scramble to find new buyers,” she said.

Yet Ng sees a silver lining: “This should also be a turning point. Southeast Asia has an opportunity to reorient toward emerging markets, such as Africa, the Middle East, and South America.”

The Philippines, Indonesia, and Vietnam possess massive solar and wind reserves that could shield them from export volatility, Ng added.

The urgency is underscored by broader geopolitical realities.

Trade disruptions, conflicts in key shipping routes, and U.S. fossil fuel protectionism have made global trade more precarious than at any time since World War II, according to the “Energy Security in an Insecure World” study by Ember.

The study proposes a new “electrotech” strategy to energy security, emphasizing local renewable generation and electrification through electric vehicles and heat pumps.

This strategy could slash fossil fuel imports by 70% and save $1.3 trillion globally each year.

“Electrification is the largest driver of energy independence,” the study said.

Currently, Southeast Asia faces one of the highest fossil import exposures globally, with import dependence rising steadily since 1990.

The Philippines’ exploration of LNG deals with Alaska LNG risks locking the country into expensive, uncertain fossil fuel contracts, analysts warn.

“Rather than locking in expensive, long-term deals for U.S. LNG, Southeast Asian countries can seize renewable energy opportunities,” Reynolds said.

He argued that renewables offer a cost-effective path for sustainable growth, unlike the volatile fossil market.

Arances echoed these concerns, emphasizing that the Trump administration’s volatility highlights the need for a “people-centered, affordable, and secure renewable energy future.”

Muyi Yang, senior policy analyst at Ember, said Southeast Asia’s “long-term resilience of the clean energy boom hinges on accelerating its energy transition.”

Yang pointed to the region’s “vast, growing, and increasingly affluent domestic market” as a critical hedge against external shocks.

Meanwhile, Lauri Myllyvirta of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air stressed that the United States now represents only 7% of the global market for new solar installations.

“U.S. tariffs should not become a distraction from the opportunity the global energy transition represents for Southeast Asia,” Myllyvirta said.

The International Energy Agency projects that emerging and developing economies will account for 70% of global solar installations by 2030.

This gives Southeast Asian nations a powerful incentive to pivot toward domestic and regional markets, experts said.

“Developing a strong home market is also what China did ten years ago when the European market for solar panels slumped,” Myllyvirta noted.

China’s “electrotech” expansion provides a model for Southeast Asia.

Instead of relying on continuous fossil fuel imports, which must be purchased and burned constantly, renewables offer energy security through one-time infrastructure investments that last decades, according to Ember’s findings.

“Once installed, electrotech costs remain stable—even if global supply chains falter or fuel costs rise,” the report stated.

Furthermore, solar and wind energy potentials are almost 100 times greater than fossil fuel production.

“The Philippines has an estimated 122 gigawatts of solar and 178 gigawatts of wind potential,” the media briefer stated.

Harnessing even a fraction of this potential would reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels, shield the economy from price shocks, and advance climate goals.

Analysts also warn that continued fossil reliance risks stranding billions of dollars in LNG infrastructure investments.

In Thailand, for example, the government’s push to become an LNG hub risks stranding an estimated THB100 billion in assets, according to Sarinee Achavanuntakul of Climate Finance Network Thailand.

Similar risks loom over the Philippines if it overcommits to imported LNG, experts said.

Laurie van der Burg of Oil Change International called on Asian countries to “listen to their communities” and prioritize renewables over expensive gas infrastructure.

“LNG hasn’t delivered energy security or affordability. Instead, it has caused blackouts, rising debts, and devastating climate and health impacts,” van der Burg said.

Instead of investing in long-term LNG contracts, Southeast Asia should double down on renewables and energy efficiency, she argued.

China’s growing export of solar panels, batteries, and electric vehicles to the Global South offers an alternative to dependence on U.S. or European supply chains.

According to BNEF, lower and middle-income economies received up to half of China’s clean tech exports in 2024.

Caroline Wang, a China analyst at Climate Energy Finance, said the tariffs will have “very limited impact” on China’s photovoltaic market but will likely hit Southeast Asian exporters reliant on the U.S.

Ben McCarron, managing director at Asia Research & Engagement, said the trade wars will ultimately “accelerate the energy transition in Southeast Asia.”

“Previously, the markets have been slow to adopt renewables and electric vehicles,” McCarron said.

“Now China will supercharge efforts in Southeast Asian markets, ensuring policy and implementation plans enable fast adoption of green energy,” he added.

Ultimately, experts view Trump’s tariffs not as a death knell but as a catalytic moment for Southeast Asia’s clean energy ambitions.

“This is a chance for Southeast Asia to move up the value chain—from being seen as low-cost assemblers to leaders in designing and building advanced clean energy technologies,” Ng said.

If Southeast Asian countries seize this opportunity, experts agree the region could emerge not just resilient, but central to the global clean energy transition.