TOP OF MIND: Seven in ten Filipinos familiar with West PHL Sea conflict, survey shows

By Francis Allan L. Angelo

Nearly three in four adult Filipinos are familiar with current developments in the West Philippine Sea (WPS), according to a nationwide survey released by OCTA Research on June 3, 2026.

The Q1 2026 Tugon ng Masa (TNM) survey, commissioned by the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP), found that 72% of respondents reported familiarity with the WPS territorial dispute — a level OCTA Research said indicates the issue has moved beyond niche foreign policy circles and into mainstream national consciousness.

Familiarity was highest in MIMAROPA (100%), Western Visayas (94%), and Caraga (88%), and lowest in BARMM (42%) and Central Luzon (47%).

By socioeconomic class, awareness was highest among Class ABC respondents at 86%, compared to 64% among Class E. Urban Filipinos (74%) reported slightly higher familiarity than their rural counterparts (71%), while males (75%) reported higher awareness than females (69%).

Among respondents familiar with the issue, 69% identified expanded naval patrols and troop presence as a priority measure for addressing the conflict — the highest-ranked response.

Diplomacy and other peaceful methods ranked second at 66%, followed by modernizing and strengthening the AFP at 64%.

Given the survey’s ±3% margin of error, OCTA Research described the three measures as a “leading cluster of public priorities,” suggesting broad support for a strategy that combines territorial assertion, diplomacy, and defense capability development.

Expanding diplomatic efforts with countries within and outside the region drew support from 37% of respondents, while conducting joint maritime patrols with allied nations was backed by 29%.

Shelving territorial disputes for joint economic development ranked last at 23%.

Among Class ABC respondents, AFP modernization ranked as the highest priority at 85%, followed by diplomacy at 75%, suggesting that higher socioeconomic groups place greater emphasis on strategic capability-building.

Trend data from October 2023, December 2023, and March 2026 show that expanded naval patrols, diplomacy, and AFP modernization have consistently occupied the top tier of public preferences across all survey rounds.

Support for expanded naval patrols moved from 65% in October 2023 to 72% in December 2023 before settling at 69% in March 2026. Support for diplomacy stood at 70% in October 2023 and 66% in March 2026. AFP modernization support rose from 62% in October 2023 to 66% in December 2023, then stood at 64% in March 2026.

Joint maritime patrols with allied countries recorded the largest decline over the period, dropping from approximately 42% in both 2023 rounds to 29% in March 2026.

OCTA Research said the trend data indicate a “durable national consensus supporting a balanced, rights-based, diplomacy-centered, and capability-oriented approach to the West Philippine Sea.”

The TNM survey was conducted from March 19 to 25, 2026, using face-to-face interviews with 1,200 adult Filipino respondents nationwide. It carries a ±3% margin of error at a 95% confidence level, with subnational estimates carrying a ±6% margin of error.