The plot thickens

By Artchil B. Fernandez

 

The Du30 produced national teledrama is a hit. In terms of twists and turns, it leaves the audience hanging and in a state of suspended animation. This week the plot thickens in the “1521” political saga.

The main storyline of the teleserye is the tussle for the Speakership of the Lower House between the main protagonists, Alan Peter Cayetano and Lord Allan Velasco. Du30 in July last year brokered an agreement between the two contenders. Cayetano is Speaker for 15 months with Velasco taking over the post for the remaining 21 months.

It would have been a boring story had the agreement held. Cayetano however refused to honor the agreement forged by Du30. Instead of facilitating a smooth transfer of power, Cayetano challenged Velasco to come and get the post if he has the numbers. Power indeed is an intoxicating drug and completely corrupts.

With the agreement in peril, Du30 was forced to intervene once more calling both parties to a meeting. In that meeting, Du30 forced the parties to commit to the 15-21 agreement and it was announced that the smooth transfer of power will be on October 14. It seemed all was well until Cayetano once again sprung another surprise.

Last week Cayetano maneuvered again to sabotage the agreement by offering to resign his post. His allies moved for a nominal voting on the move with 184 rejections, 9 abstentions and only one accepting the resignation offer. Cayetano gained a fresh mandate while at the same time telling Du30 he has the numbers.

Velasco countered Cayetano’s latest move by meeting Du30 last Monday. Rep. Leachon described the meeting between them as “a father-son conversation.” He affirms that Du30 once again backed the agreement. “The President was categorical when he said, ‘Lord, it is your right time now. I have already spoken. You have to insist your right based on the term-sharing agreement,” Leachon claimed.

As allies of Velasco became bolder and bolder this week in asserting the term-sharing agreement, Cayetano struck back by stripping them of their committee chairmanships. First to lose his post was Michael Romero. Other Velasco allies who were removed as committee chairs were representatives Sharon Garin, Helen Tan and Eric Martinez.  Cayetano is warning representatives, move against me at your own risk while at the same time demonstrating his hold on the House.

To further forestall Velasco’s take over on House leadership and in utter disregard of the Du30-brokered agreement, Cayetano once again outflanked his opponents by forcing an early suspension of the House session. The House is supposed to go on a break on October 17, two days after Velasco’s expected assumption of the Speaker post. The House will resume session on November 16 and in hiatus, Cayetano remains Speaker.

Presidential spokesperson Harry Roque conceded that Cayetano’s latest gambit is an “astute political move.” Cayetano is buying time, not only to consolidate his forces, but to have leverage on Du30 whom he brazenly slapped in the face with his intransigence. The Cayetano-Velasco Speakership tiff is shaping up as a power play between Du30 and Cayetano. This is a very interesting twist.

Here is what is clear in this saga. Cayetano does not want to relinquish the Speakership and is determined to tear-up the Du30 brokered agreement. Du30 is in an awkward, tight, and difficult situation with Cayetano’s defiance. If Cayetano succeeds, it means Du30 is already a lame duck president. It also implies that Du30 no longer controls the House, the first president to be in this situation in the post-EDSA regime.

Cayetano made a high-stake gamble with his sudden suspension of House session. Not only does he stay as Speaker for the moment, but he also held the 2021 national budget hostage, a powerful leverage against Du30. True, the budget was approved on second reading before the abrupt adjournment this week of the session, but it still needs a third and final reading. This will happen on November 16 at the very least.

With a month’s sudden recess, Congress is running out of time to approve the 2021 budget. Senator Panfilo Lacson declared he is 100 percent sure the 2021 budget will not pass by the end of the year due to time constraints and a re-enacted budget is now a reality. Senate President Tito Sotto seconded Lacson’s prognosis.

The 2021 national budget is an election budget and by Cayetano’s calculation, time constraint will force approval of the budget as he crafted it. Cayetano and his gang are getting a huge slice in the budget (Taguig, Cayetano’s turf gets 11.1 billion). Even if he is removed as House Speaker (should Du30 get his way) the 2021 budget gives Cayetano a huge election fund to bankroll his ambition for higher office in 2022. In Cayetano’s calculus, it’s a win-win situation. No wonder he dares defy Du30.

Du30 on the other hand stands to lose big time. His 2021 budget is in danger and a re-enacted budget will be a huge blow to the finances of his administration. Du30 needs the passage of the 2021 budget to deal with the Covid-19 pandemic and fund his anointed candidate. He cannot do this with a re-enacted budget and here Cayetano checkmated Du30. The only way for Du30 to cut his losses is unseating Cayetano (taking away his slice in the 2021 budget) and passing the budget before the end of the year. There is a bigger political stake for Du30 in the implementation of the 15-21 agreement. It confirms his control not only of the House but of the Super Majority.  Failure on the part of Du30 to place Velasco on the Speakership indicates he is politically impotent. However, the fragmentation of his political coalition is a foregone conclusion.

With the raising of the bets in the 15-21 political saga, expect exciting events ahead.  Du30 already responded to Cayetano’s latest move with a veiled threat. The situation remains fluid, making the teleserye more riveting and engrossing.