The Muted Verdict

The Supreme Court has spoken, but the Filipino people have not. The high court’s decision to halt the impeachment proceedings against Vice President Sara Duterte, while legally definitive, has landed with a thud in the court of public opinion. The latest WR Numero survey reveals a nation not in agreement, but in a state of profound uncertainty. This is the story hiding in plain sight: it’s not about the 27% who agree with the ruling or the 34% who disagree. It is about the 40% – the largest single group – who are simply unsure.

This widespread ambivalence should not be mistaken for apathy. It is a symptom of a critical disconnect. It tells a story of a political and legal drama whose script is too complex, whose actors are unconvincing, and whose relevance to the daily lives of millions remains unclear. The verdict from the public is muted because the case itself was never clearly articulated to them.

This confusion is understandable. The Supreme Court’s ruling hinges on points of law that are arcane to the average citizen: the right to due process within an impeachment context and the constitutional ban on multiple impeachment proceedings within a year. The declaration that the Senate “did not acquire jurisdiction” is a conclusion that satisfies legal scholars but leaves the public cold. It provides a legal shield for the Vice President but fails to address the underlying questions of accountability that prompted the impeachment in the first place.

Both sides of the political aisle share the blame for this communication failure. The Vice President’s camp may celebrate a legal victory, but they have demonstrably failed to translate that win into a convincing public narrative. Meanwhile, the opposition, for all its fervor, was unable to frame its arguments in a way that resonated beyond its established base. The result is a stalemate of persuasion, leaving four in ten Filipinos adrift in a sea of legal jargon and political noise, unable to form a firm conviction.

This very uncertainty, however, provides a clear, if challenging, roadmap for the opposition. While the impeachment path is closed, the political battle is far from over. The 34% of Filipinos who disagree with the Supreme Court’s decision represent a significant and solid foundation of support. This is not a fringe minority; it is a formidable bloc of citizens who believe an opportunity for accountability was unjustly denied. But preaching to this choir will not shift the political needle.

The real opportunity – the battleground where public opinion will be won or lost – lies in engaging the 40% who remain on the fence. This is the “swing vote” in the larger contest for the nation’s trust. To win them over, the opposition must radically change its strategy. The language of legislative procedure and constitutional law that failed to galvanize a majority must be abandoned.

Instead, they must craft a new, simpler, and more compelling narrative. The focus must shift from the process of impeachment to the principles at stake. Why should the average Filipino, preoccupied with rising costs and daily struggles, care about this issue? The opposition must provide the answer. They need to connect the abstract concept of high-level impunity to the tangible erosion of trust in public institutions. They must articulate how a failure of accountability at the top inevitably poisons governance at every level, affecting the delivery of basic services and the fair application of justice for all.

The survey data shows the youth are already largely on board; 43% of those under 30 disagree with the ruling. The challenge lies with Filipinos aged 31 to 59, where uncertainty is at its peak (42%). This is the demographic juggling work, family, and finances. Their attention is a precious commodity. A message that doesn’t immediately signal its importance to their lives will be ignored.

The Supreme Court’s ruling has given Vice President Duterte a legal reprieve, but the WR Numero survey shows she lacks a popular mandate for it.

The opposition has been handed a cause, a clear base of support, and a well-defined target audience for its message. The next chapter of this saga will not be written in the courtroom, but in the effort to convince the undecided.