The first shot

By Artchil B. Fernandez

The noise of the New Year had hardly died down when Bongbong Marcos (BBM) fired the first shot in 2025, escalating the current dynastic war between House Duterte and House Marcos. He removed Vice President Sara Duterte and her father from the National Security Council (NSC).

On the fourth day of 2025, the present administration made public Executive Order (EO) No. 81, signed on December 30, 2024, revamping the composition of the NSC. The reorganization was done to “further guarantee that the NSC remains a resilient national security institution, capable of adapting to evolving challenges and opportunities both domestically and internationally.”

The change in the composition of the NSC was made to “ensure that its council members uphold and protect national security and sovereignty, thereby fostering an environment conducive to effective governance and stability.” Prior to the overhaul, the vice president and former presidents were part of the NSC.

It is plainly clear that the target of the NSC shake-up is the Dutertes. One root of the conflict between the Dutertes and the Marcoses is how to deal with the bully neighbor China, which has been stealing Philippine territory in the West Philippine Sea. Both camps have taken opposite positions on the issue.

The previous administration of the Duterte patriarch cozied up to China, not only parroting its line on the territorial dispute but also acting deaf and blind to its aggressive theft of Philippine territory. The present administration of BBM, on the other hand, pivoted away from China, upheld the country’s win in the international arbitral court, and strengthened the Philippine security alliance with the United States (US).

Removing the Dutertes from the NSC is one way to ensure that China no longer has moles in the top security body of the country. Another China supporter removed from the NSC is former president Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo (GMA), Sara Duterte’s political mentor and the original “China baby.” The selling out of the country to China is one of her original sins. While she remained silent on the raging war between Team Kadiliman and Team Kasamaan, GMA is identified as a Duterte ally and was stripped of her top post in the House due to her closeness to the Davao dynasty.

Purging the Dutertes from the NSC signals their further marginalization in the national loop of power. It denies them access to top security information and deprives them of participation in national security discussions. BBM is loosening their hold on the body politic and weakening their capacity to influence national discourse by denying them an important platform. The Dutertes are being ostracized from national affairs.

“At the moment, the vice president is not considered relevant to the responsibilities of membership in the NSC. Nonetheless, when the need arises, the EO reserves to the president the power to add members or advisers,” Executive Secretary Lucas Bersamin explained BBM’s directive easing out his former ally. Declaring Sara Duterte unimportant in national affairs reduces her to irrelevance and triviality.

The ouster of the Dutertes from the NSC also indicates the intensification of conflict between the country’s top warring political dynastic families. There is no let-up in the clash, as indicated by the early shot fired by BBM. Questions are: Where will BBM go from here? What will BBM do after firing the first shot of the year? Will BBM stop at the NSC ejection of the Dutertes? What other courses of action will BBM take henceforth?

Moving forward is tricky for BBM. He reinvigorated the political brawl with the Dutertes, slapping them in the face by evicting the father-daughter tandem from the NSC. His next move will be keenly watched. The impeachment of Sara Duterte is the next crucial battleground for the two warring blocs.

Earlier, BBM said he was not interested in impeaching his vice president. He claimed he even sent text messages to members of the House urging them not to initiate impeachment. But political developments are changing fast. His early reluctance toward impeachment has already placed BBM in a tight dilemma.

Bloc-voting sect Iglesia ni Cristo (INC) supported BBM’s position not to impeach his vice president and has scheduled national rallies tomorrow (Jan. 13) to oppose impeachment. Should he change his position—or if his stance on impeachment has already shifted—BBM will find himself in an awkward situation. The political landscape is quickly evolving.

A Social Weather Stations (SWS) nationwide survey conducted from December 12 to 18, 2024, reveals nearly half of Filipinos (41 percent) support the potential impeachment of Sara Duterte. Almost a majority (47 percent) of Filipinos also agreed with the impeachment complaint filed against the vice president, while 35 percent disagreed, and only 15 percent were undecided.

What will BBM do after stirring the political pot in the first week of 2025? The political survival of the Dutertes depends, to a certain extent, on BBM’s handling of them. It seems he is shedding his conflict-averse posture by firing the first shot. But is BBM firm on this course of action, or was it only momentary? One weakness of BBM is his fickle and indecisive leadership. Maintaining a conflict-shy stance could prove his undoing in the end. Or at this point, has BBM realized this already?

To be or not to be—to deliver the coup de grâce or not? This is the existential question confronting BBM today. His response will not only determine the fate of the Dutertes but also that of his family. BBM cannot dilly-dally, skirt around, or postpone answering this question. After the 2025 elections, BBM will enter his lame-duck years. If the Dutertes endure and subsist by that time, the Marcoses will find themselves in a precarious situation.

The nation is waiting with bated breath for BBM’s ultimate decision.