The calculus of 2022

By Artchil B. Fernandez

If presidential election was held between June 7 and 16, 2021, presidential daughter and Davao City mayor Sara Duterte is the next president of the country. This result of Pulse Asia survey conducted in that period drew extreme reactions.

Critics of the administration ridiculed the polling agency, calling it False Asia. They slammed the result of the survey and accused the agency as partial to the administration by conditioning the public mind, even going as far as charging it of being in the payroll of those in power.

Supporters of the administration on the other hand were elated with the result of the survey and saw it as a validation of their devotion. The survey result strengthened their belief that a Du30 2.0 is inevitable.

Granting that the latest Pulse Asia survey result is the likely outcome of the 2022 election, the current president of the country should be Grace Poe. Pulse Asia did a similar survey from May 30, 2015 to June 5, 2015. In that survey Poe led the presidential race, getting 30 percent followed by Jejomar Binay with 22 percent. Rodrigo Duterte was a far third with 15 percent.

Surveys are snapshots of public pulse on the period they were done. The result is valid only at the time the survey was conducted. Public pulse and sentiments change as attested by the 2016 election results. In the vice presidential race, Leni Robredo only had 1 percent in the above mentioned 2015 survey.

At this point there is no reason to gnash teeth or open champagne bottles. Such reactions are not only premature but foolish and silly.

If survey results are valid or true only at the time they were taken, why do surveys? Despite its limitations, surveys are important to policy makers and in the case of election, to political strategists/operators for they provide information on what people think and feel about a certain topic or candidate, a key guide in decision-making and formulation of intervention.

What is the calculus of 2022 based on the result of Pulse Asia survey done last June 6 to 17, 2021?

In the survey, Sara Duterte led the pack of presidentiables with 28 percent and Isko Moreno a far second with 14 percent and statistically tied with Bongbong Marcos (13 percent).

Statistically tied in third place are Grace Poe (10 percent) and Manny Pacquiao (8 percent).  Leni Robredo (6 percent) and Panfilo Lacson (4 percent) are also statistically tied in the fourth place.

What the survey result shows is that the 2022 election is still anybody’s game, an open-ended contest. All the main contenders have a chance to win in 2022.

Sara Duterte has the advantage among them since she leads the pack. To win, Sara Duterte has to hold on to her lead with no substantial or drastic fall of her number between now and May 2022.  If possible, she needs to cross the 30 percent threshold, maintain if not further increase it even slightly. Her father’s final percentage is 39.01.

Even if her final percentage does not equal that of her father as long as it remains around the range of her current number in the final count, she has a chance to succeed her father.

Both Moreno and Marcos can catch-up and even overtake front-runner Sara Duterte. Du30 was only a distant third in the same period in 2015 but was able to more than double his percentage in the finish line clinching the presidency. If Du30 did it, why can’t it be possible for Moreno and Marcos?

The same can be said of Poe and Pacquiao. In 2015, Du30 nearly tripled his number in the final tally. Given the same timeframe, both Poe and Pacquiao can still catch up with their rivals who are ahead and even overtake them.

At a glance, the odds may seem not to favor Robredo and Lacson with their single digit number. But this was also the case of Du30 in 2016. In the November 27 to December 1, 2014 SWS survey, Du30 only polled 5 percent but nearly a year later (Sept. 2 – 5, 2015), he more than tripled his number (16 percent). Du30’s 39.01 final percentage shows he was able to increase his SWS number more than seven times. Writing-off Robredo and Lacson at this time is counter-factual to what happened in 2016.

Winning the presidency in the Philippines is by mere plurality regardless of the percentage. Ramos won the presidency with only 23 percent of the votes in 1992. A similar scenario may unfold in the 2022 election with at least five presidential candidates. In a crowded field with the votes thinly spread, the winner need not win a third or even a fourth of the votes. Getting a little over a fifth of the votes could be enough to win.

A candidate only needs to consolidate his/her base and increase his/her percentage slightly above 20 percent to win. Using Ramos as baseline, a candidate with 23 percent can win in 2022. With the remaining 77 percent shared by the four others, their percentage may not cross the 20 percent threshold or just a percentage above it. This is on the assumption that there is only a slight variation in the percentage of the four other candidates (77 percent is not equally divided among them), assuming a closely contested election and all candidates are able to consolidate their bases.

Sara Duterte, Isko Moreno, Bongbong Marcos, Grace Poe, Manny Pacquiao, Leni Robredo and Ping Lacson can win in 2022. Even if Sara Duterte’s number falls given the albatross that is her father, she can still win if her number does not fall below 20 percent.  Moreno, Marcos, Poe, Pacquiao, Robredo and Lacson are in position at this point to cross the 20 percent threshold and they can even peak with 23 – 25 percent or higher.

What the latest Pulse Asia survey tells us is as of today the presidency is still up for grabs. Some candidates may have the advantage while others need to double their effort but no one has clinched the presidency. All contenders are winnable.