Tectonic Shift

By Artchil B. Fernandez

Wild. Crazy. Confounding. These are some of the words that describe the recently concluded May 12, 2025, midterm election. The results were a complete surprise. It was not the outcome pundits, experts, and survey outfits predicted, projected, or estimated. There was nothing like this in recent political history of the country. Who are the gainers and losers, winners and the defeated?

How did Team Kadiliman and Team Kasamaan fare? The 2025 election, after all, was framed as a battle royale between the former allies now bitter enemies. The result was a huge shocker to both. They are waking up to a new political reality.

Despite spinning the election result as a win—with six of its eleven candidates making it to the “magic 12”—the real story is not rosy for the administration. The midterm election often serves as a referendum on the sitting administration. The outcome of the election is a protest vote against the present administration, with voters expressing their dissatisfaction with the current state of affairs.

Pre-election surveys from the start of the campaign until the final week showed the administration’s Alyansa para sa Bagong Pilipinas was on track to win eight or nine Senate seats. Polls from different survey outfits consistently projected the administration’s dominance in the Senate race. Election results, however, defied these prognoses.

Instead, the administration took a beating, with only five of its candidates who can be considered genuine administration bets making it to the winning circle. Its sixth winner, Camille Villar, also secured a last-minute endorsement from the administration’s arch-nemesis, Vice President Sara Duterte. Villar’s loyalty is suspect since she is expected to side with the vice president in her impeachment trial. Given her shifty—or shitty—loyalty, Camille Villar’s victory can hardly be considered an administration win.

Worse, President Bongbong Marcos’ (BBM) sister, now turned arch critic—or even arch foe—of his administration, managed to squeeze through. She released a vitriolic last-minute ad savagely attacking the administration, singling out in-law First Lady and cousin Speaker Martin Romualdez. Imee Marcos will likely be the fiercest opposition to the administration in the Senate in the coming years.

The election result is a second midterm protest vote against a sitting administration. Only the 2007 midterm election debacle—where only two administration candidates won, a big slap to then-President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo—surpassed the record of the present administration. BBM’s current 25 percent approval rating likely influenced the election outcome, with a majority of his endorsed candidates rejected by the voters.

While the administration suffered a setback in the 2025 election, its principal foe, House Duterte, cannot rejoice or claim victory either. Only three of the so-called DuterTen won. The Dutertes expected to dominate the Senate race with a surge of support in the last days of the campaign due to the sympathy generated by the arrest and handover of their patriarch to the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague.

It turned out the “Duterte bump” was nothing but a consolidation of the Duterte votes, manifested in the massive win of DuterTen in Duterte bailiwicks. Elsewhere, the DuterTen suffered huge defeat, except for their three bets that made it to the magic 12. The Dutertes failed to capture or win over independents and voters from other camps. This explains the Dutertes’ limited win. They are not happy with the result.

Sara Duterte was disappointed with the result of the election. In a public statement, she acknowledged that “the outcome was not what we had hoped for,” but vowed to build “a powerful and principled opposition” against the administration.

The huge winner in the recently concluded election is the Pinklawans. Their wandering in the political wilderness is over. Their two bets not only won, but won big. Defying pre-election surveys, the Pinklawans performed beyond their wildest imagination. Bam Aquino placed second, while Francis Pangilinan firmly held the fifth place. In final pre-election surveys, both were outside the winning circle—Aquino with a slim chance, while Pangilinan’s campaign was declared dead by the surveys. But when the votes came in, they emerged in the top five, tightly secure in the winning spots.

Pinklawan party-list Akbayan also topped the race, securing three congressional slots. The other Pinklawan party-list, ML, also secured one congressional seat. In pre-election surveys, these party-list groups were written off.

The astounding performance of the Pinklawans makes them a powerful player in national politics. Initial data suggest they made strong inroads among Gen Z and millennial voters, who comprised 60 percent of the voting population. Does this indicate a tectonic shift in the political landscape of the country? Are voters now tired of Team Kadiliman and Team Kasamaan and receptive to Team Kabutihan? Should this trend continue, the Pinklawans will be a strong contender in the 2028 election.

Biggest losers are celebrity candidates who suffered a bloodbath. Prominent celebrities—Revilla, Revillame, Pacquiao, and Ben Tulfo—who were sure winners according to surveys, badly lost. Tulfo placed 13th, Revilla 14th, while Pacquiao is 18th and Revillame 22nd. This is another mighty shift on the ground. Are voters finally weary of personalities who thought they could dance and twirl their way to public office? Does this indicate that voters now prefer substance over form? If Filipino voters today are more discerning, selective, and demand competence, this is a huge leap indeed.

Given that House Duterte and House Marcos are currently locked in an apparent stalemate while the Pinklawans are surging, the political scene of the country will be vibrant, dynamic, and convulsive. Add to the mix the tectonic shift in voters’ appreciation of candidates, the country is headed towards an explosive 2028 election.