Selective lifting of ECQ

By Modesto P. Sa-onoy

There is an increasing proposition to gradually lift certain restrictions in the lockdown or quarantine imposed to prevent the spread of the pandemic. The data in the news show the flattening of incidence of infection and death. Examples are Spain and Italy, Europe’s worst hit. China has since over a week ago allowed movement and their provinces are starting to resume normal life. Even air travel is permitted with certain precautions.

GMA reported last week the University of the Philippines study which said, “Based on these trends, one can estimate about 9,000 to 44,000 possible cases reported by the end of April 2020. In general, this indicates the relative success of the ECQ–along with other interventions–in containing the spread of the virus.”

The experts explained that 9,000 is a “low estimate” based on the current linear trend of cases, while 44,000 is the “high estimate” based on the overall early-phase exponential trend.

The team also advocated for a modified community quarantine beyond April 30, citing an “unnecessary paralyzation of local economies” if the restriction on the movement of goods and services over a large area is prolonged. This is a serious matter that cannot be ignored – what happens afterwards.

Though the UP Team assessed the ECQ to be effective, they also acknowledged that a long-term quarantine of a wide area may not be sustainable.

“In light of this reality, our best recourse after April 30 is to implement graduated activation of ECQ depending on the level of risk in certain areas at a given time,” they said.

The proposed set-up is for local government units to be placed under ECQ based on their proximity to an estimated outbreak threshold. Negros and many other islands are far and separated by sea from this threshold.

“The approach presented here depends entirely on the quality of official reports, testing accuracy, monitoring, and faithful accounts of fatalities, among others,” the study noted.

“Model estimates would improve much if nationwide barangay-level COVID-19 related data are available daily… By getting near real-time data, it becomes easier to project the rate of spread and identify locations of hotspots and outbreaks daily.”

The other day, news report says some business groups have called for the gradual lifting of the Luzon-wide quarantine, which has affected more than 57 million residents, and has forced thousands of businesses to suspend operations.

The National Economic and Development Authority estimated that the COVID-19 pandemic may slow economic growth to 4.3% or may even contract the Philippine economy by 0.6% this year if mitigation measures are not adopted. About 116,000 to 1.8 million jobs in the Philippines may be lost because of the disease.

The lockdown clearly played a significant role in preventing the spread of the disease, but it is not without its downside as we are witnessing daily. However, it could have been worse if the ECQ was not adopted.

Other countries are starting to ease the restrictions, but is there practical wisdom in the administration view that “we must be the last to do it”? For how long? How far can government resources go in providing food relief? These are the questions in people’s mind.

The government response is that the government is undertaking measures to ensure that the country would withstand the pandemic.

Cabinet Secretary Karlo Nograles said, “We are doing something for us to flatten the curve, so we won’t overwhelm our healthcare facilities, our doctors, our front liners, our hospital beds, our ventilators. All our health equipment and facilities are not overwhelmed with the number of COVID-19 cases. That’s our strategy and that’s a worldwide strategy.”

“We must last, that’s the point. We must manage this in a way that we have to last, period. More recoveries, less deaths… you know, we will really find ways. We must make ourselves last… They must find a vaccine otherwise, you know, we’ll take it one step at a time…The world must find a vaccine – and I believe they will. (That’s) the last option. If there’s no other way. But we will find a way.”

The reply is less assuring that soon the quarantine will be lifted even gradually but will remain so long as the rest of the world are doing it. What this means for us is to brace ourselves and keep faith, hope and sanity in prayer.