Scientists, communities to map who El Niño will hit hardest

QUEZON CITY — The University of the Philippines (UP) and the Natural Resources Development Corporation (NRDC) will convene a national consultation on El Niño on Nov. 20 and 21 to produce a response action matrix for submission to President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr.

The National Multi-Stakeholder Consultation on El Niño Impact and Response will be held at the GT-Toyota Asian Cultural Center in UP Diliman, Quezon City.

The consultation will bring together government agencies, scientists, communities, civil society organizations, businesses, and other partners to strengthen national preparedness and develop a coordinated, science-based, and action-oriented response to the risks posed by El Niño.

The gathering comes after the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Nov. 5 that a “very strong” El Niño had formed in the tropical Pacific and is expected to peak by the end of the year, with lingering impacts likely to persist through mid-2027.

PAGASA has warned that El Niño generally brings warmer temperatures and below-normal rainfall to most of the country, raising the risk of dry spells and drought.

The state weather bureau first reported El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific on June 9.

The two-day consultation aims to translate scientific knowledge, government preparedness, partner capabilities, and community experience into coordinated, practical action.

It takes into consideration the needs of the sectors most vulnerable to the effects of El Niño, including poor families, children and youth, students, farmers, fisherfolk, indigenous peoples, persons with disabilities, older persons, and workers.

UP will serve as lead convenor, providing the scientific framework, program design, moderation, and synthesis.

The NRDC will serve as co-convenor, focusing on government and partner coordination, resource mobilization, and public information.

UP President Angelo A. Jimenez will deliver the welcome remarks, while retired Judge Benjamin D. Turgano, NRDC president and chief executive officer, will give the statement of purpose.

The scientific session will feature Alfredo Mahar Lagmay of the UP Resilience Institute and Project NOAH, who will discuss the science of El Niño and its anticipated impacts on the Philippines.

A team from the Department of Science and Technology-PAGASA (DOST-PAGASA) led by Ana Liza S. Solis will present the climate outlook and geographic risk assessment.

The program includes a sharing of lessons from previous El Niño episodes, featuring academics, scientists, and researchers from the UP College of Engineering, the UP Los Baños School of Environmental Science and Management, Silliman University, and Davao Oriental State University.

A scientific dialogue will examine who is most at risk and where they are located.

Community representatives, including learners and their families, farmers, fisherfolk, indigenous peoples, persons with disabilities, barangay officials, and other affected communities, will discuss their needs and local capacities.

The consultation will focus on three major areas: education continuity in basic and higher education; health protection and social service continuity; and food security and agriculture.

Government agencies will identify priority populations and geographic areas, existing interventions and capacities, operational gaps, and areas requiring partnership support.

The principal expected outcome is a National Multi-Stakeholder El Niño Response Action Matrix, matching priority needs with concrete voluntary interventions, named leads and partners, timelines, performance measures, and reporting arrangements.

The matrix will be consolidated into a report for submission to President Marcos.

Communities will also have a direct role in validating whether the proposed interventions are relevant, accessible, and feasible.