Sara Duterte leads Robredo by 15 points in 2-way poll

Vice President Sara Duterte leads Naga City Mayor and former Vice President Leni Robredo by 15 percentage points in a hypothetical two-way presidential matchup, according to the inaugural National Momentum Survey released Aug. 11 by Momentum Research.

The non-commissioned survey found that 53.5% of Filipino adults said they would vote for Duterte, compared with 38.9% who chose Robredo.

The remaining 7% were undecided, with 5.4% unsure and 2.3% declining to answer.

Of the two, only Duterte has announced a presidential bid, even though the filing of certificates of candidacy is still more than a year away. Robredo has publicly ruled out a national run in 2028, although many of her political allies continue to encourage her to reconsider.

Duterte led in three of the four regions covered by the survey.

Her strongest showing was in Mindanao, her political stronghold, at 91.1%. She drew 56.4% in Metro Manila and 56% in the Visayas.

Robredo led in the Rest of Luzon with 55.2%, compared with 32.6% for Duterte. The region also posted the largest share of undecided respondents, at 8.1% unsure and 4.1% declining to answer.

Robredo took 40.4% in the Visayas and 34.9% in Metro Manila. Her lowest share was in Mindanao at 7.7%.

The pattern shifts when responses are broken down by political faction, where Robredo led in two of the four groups.

Duterte held a majority only among Pro-Duterte respondents at 92.9%, while Robredo drew 6.9% from that group.

Robredo led among Pro-Marcos respondents at 67.3%, compared with 26.5% for Duterte. Her widest margin came from Pro-Opposition respondents, where she took 82.1% to Duterte’s 16.3%.

Momentum Research defines Pro-Opposition Filipinos as those who align themselves with Robredo, Sen. Risa Hontiveros, Sen. Bam Aquino, and their allies.

Independent respondents were more closely divided, with 45.1% for Duterte and 41.2% for Robredo, a gap of 4 percentage points. Another 10.5% were unsure, and 3.3% declined to answer.

The survey also measured factional partisanship, with 45% of Filipino adults identifying as Independent or as supporting none of the three named groups.

Roughly 28.9% identified as supporters of the Dutertes and their allies, 12.4% as supporters of the opposition, and 11% as supporters of the Marcoses and their allies. Another 2% were unsure and 0.8% declined to answer.

Momentum Research said the narrower gap among Independents suggests the race could be tight if undecided voters develop a preference as the 2028 election approaches, and if Robredo reconsiders her decision not to run.

The survey was conducted from July 13 to 16, 2026, through face-to-face interviews with a nationally representative sample of 1,438 Filipino adults. It has a national margin of error of ±2.6 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.

Subnational margins of error are plus or minus 7% for the National Capital Region, 4% for the Rest of Luzon, 6% for the Visayas, and 5% for Mindanao, all at a 95% confidence level.