Root of the Duterte-Marcos political clash

By Artchil B. Fernandez

The breakup of the UniTeam is perhaps the most consequential breakup in the country’s history. No breakup has shaken the political landscape with greater intensity than the collapse of the alliance that swept the 2022 elections in a landslide. The Duterte-Marcos clash continues to reshape national life. It single-handedly dominates public conversation, determines the political ebb and flow, and holds the nation hostage. The current impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte is the most serious skirmish between the erstwhile allies. The Duterte-Marcos war is a struggle to the death.

The breakup of the UniTeam caught the nation by surprise, considering that the alliance unraveled quickly as soon as it took power. What perplexed the public was the rapid collapse of the alliance. Pre-election pundits projected that the alliance was bound to crumble, considering that its basis was pure self-interest rather than any enduring ideological or political program or agenda. But what triggered the UniTeam’s swift demise?

There is one compelling hypothesis that explains the root of the current Duterte-Marcos clash. The premise attributes the current strife between Team Agila and Team Tigre to the “GMA Template,” ostensibly hatched by the Dutertes near the end of the elder Duterte’s rule.

As Rodrigo Duterte’s administration was about to complete its term, continuity became an obsession. The effort was, however, hobbled by the absence of a clear successor. No figure in the administration or among its allies appeared to be a winnable candidate. Complicating the Duterte administration’s dilemma were the looming presidential run of Bongbong Marcos (BBM) and the candidacy of then-Vice President Leni Robredo of the Pink Movement. In a three-cornered fight, Robredo’s rebranded yellow bloc might have prevailed over both the administration’s candidate and BBM.

A victory by Leni Robredo would have been a nightmare for both the Dutertes and the Marcoses. Hard-liners in the Pink Movement were hostile to both families. A reckoning would likely have followed had Leni Robredo won the presidency.

Both the Dutertes and the Marcoses were in a bind. BBM was determined to run, while the administration had no clear-cut candidate. Sara Duterte was leading in the surveys but had firmly decided to forgo a presidential run. Even her father could not convince her to enter the presidential derby.

Former President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo (GMA), aided by Imee Marcos, engineered a political marriage between BBM and Sara Duterte. Since Sara Duterte was not interested in the presidency, why not the vice presidency? To sweeten the deal, the presidency was dangled before her in 2028. UniTeam was born.

The elder Duterte was aghast that his daughter had agreed to what appeared to be a lopsided deal. He was reluctant to support the UniTeam, believing that the only guarantee of his safety from prosecution or persecution once he stepped down from office was a president of his own choosing. BBM was not his choice. Despite their testy relationship, the Duterte patriarch believed he would be safe if his daughter were president. Current events prove that the elder Duterte’s premonition was correct.

Eventually, Rodrigo Duterte went along with the UniTeam, although there was no public endorsement. At times during the campaign, he was critical of BBM. BBM meekly endured the elder Duterte’s snide remarks and verbal attacks.

What convinced the elder Duterte to reluctantly play along was the “GMA Template.” After dictator Ferdinand Marcos Sr., GMA is the country’s longest-serving president. This was made possible by the ouster of Erap Estrada. GMA, who was vice president at the time, served the remainder of Estrada’s term. GMA then ran for election in 2004 and completed her six-year term. GMA was president for nearly 10 years.

The elder thought the same could happen to his daughter, Vice President Sara Duterte. If BBM, like Erap Estrada, were ousted after two years, Sara Duterte could rule for 10 years, long enough to guarantee his safety and security. Rodrigo Duterte could enjoy his retirement in peace. The “GMA Template” would be his salvation.

But events did not unfold as the Dutertes had planned. Upon winning, BBM consolidated his position. He refused to give Sara Duterte control of the Department of National Defense, which was critical to the “GMA Template.” Another crucial component of the “GMA Template” was for GMA herself to become speaker of the House to pilot BBM’s impeachment. The post, however, went to BBM’s cousin, Martin Romualdez. BBM also purged the government of Duterte loyalists, further undermining the “GMA Template.”

The “GMA Template” was a plan to remove BBM from power two years into his term. This was to be done through a combination of impeachment, the withdrawal of support by the military and the police, and street mobilizations by Duterte mobs and allied religious sects. The Dutertes indeed tried all three, but without control of key positions such as the Defense Department and the House speakership, the plan faltered.

BBM fought back by first ensuring that critical positions in government were in the hands of his people. He also cut off the head of the “GMA Template” by sending Rodrigo Duterte to The Hague. Instead, Sara Duterte was impeached and now stands trial.

The tectonic Duterte-Marcos clash is rooted in the “GMA Template.” The Dutertes, greedy for power, tried to extend their rule for another 10 years. Unfortunately for them, the Marcoses, who ruled the country for 20 years, are more sophisticated and adept at power plays. The Dutertes are novices or amateurs compared with the Marcoses, who are masters at playing the game of thrones. Twenty years of experience crushed six.

The biggest loser in the Duterte-Marcos conflict is the Filipino people. Good governance is forgotten as the Dutertes and the Marcoses settle their grudges and gripes.